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Robert Edwards: Trading Plan For Feb. 11-15, 2013

|Includes:Apple Inc. (AAPL), APOL, GMCR, MCO, NUAN, PBR

Last week was very profitable and I am even more excited about the trading prospects for this week. If you follow nothing else that I do, watch my stock talk comments on Apple, as I update my trades in real-time beginning this week. AAPL is my 2013 Money Machine!


APPLE (NASDAQ:AAPL) With two closes above 465, a short-term bottom is in, even if it does not turn out to be "the" bottom. As we approach resistance at 485 to 500, I anticipate we sell off and retest the recent 435 low. With the slightly improved sentiment and the Einhorn put under the market, I will now shorten up and start day trading and swinging calls that expire in the next 2-4 weeks instead of using the January 2014 calls I traded last week. I consider all dips a buy in this stock during 2013. I will be surprised if we trade below 390, but I actually hope we do, because the lower it goes, the more calls I will buy and the more money I will ultimately make when it rebounds.

MOODY'S (NYSE:MCO) This stock is a media massacre, catching falling knives buy. Thanks to the DOJ suing S&P, Moody's is selling off in sympathy. However, Moody's is not being sued (yet anyway) and they announced great earnings last week. MCO has more cash than debt, and is owned by Warren Buffett. Down from 55 to the low 40s in a week, the stock showed some springiness midweek last week and should hit a low by Tuesday this coming week. I will begin my day trade scalp by buying 100 shares on every $1 selloff (500 share limit) starting Monday and see what happens.


APOLLO GROUP (NASDAQ:APOL) Last week I sold 20 strike puts for 67 cents, 20 strike calls for 37 cents and bought the stock at 20.14. The stock closed Friday at 20.30 so the puts went off worthless, and I made 7 cents on the calls. The stock was called away and I ended up even making a profit on the stock. For next week I hope to do exactly as I did last week, sell 20 strike puts on weakness, buy the stock and sell calls on a little strength and hope the stock is called away again.

PETROBRAS (NYSE:PBR) This stock has fallen from 18 to 16 on earnings. It should bottom two weeks from now at 14.50 to 15. I will begin selling 15 puts on this stock. If exercised, I will then sell calls against it for income. I am looking for the stock to bottom around 15 in two weeks, slowly rally to 17.50, then sink back to 16 before finally working back to 18, filling the gap left from earnings, in about 4 months. With the August earnings report, I anticipate a pop up to 25 and then a selloff back to 20. If the country of Brazil quits interfering, this stock could end the year in the high 20s. If they don't, then it will probably close out the year around 20 to 22. These price projections are like long-term weather reports, very subject to change. It is just my best guess for now and I will use it as a road map until I can refine things better. I plan on selling weekly puts, buying the stock and selling weekly calls.


NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS (NASDAQ:NUAN) Successfully scalped this stock on Friday and like the action so far. Stock in solid uptrend, leader in field, mobile tech company that is very profitable, a gift to be able to buy after a nearly 20% knock down in a single day on Friday, following earnings. Fall is so fast, should get a substantial retracement to the upside within the next few days.

GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE ROASTERS (NASDAQ:GMCR) On Thursday, got back in this stock long following earnings, when it fell from 49 area to 44. Got out too soon in the 45.50 to 46 area when it retraced back to 47.50, but reloaded on Friday at 45.10 Looking for this stock to bottom at 42 to 44, and then move above 50 in the next few weeks once the positive earnings report is digested and the short squeeze continues.

HERBALIFE (NYSE:HLF) I am long this stock with covered calls with a 37.50 strike, waiting for a rally to get shares called away.

MOLYCORP (MCP) I want to stop trading this dog but I keep making money on my covered call strategy. Long from 7.45, my 7.50 and 8.00 calls went off worthless last week. Just prior to the close I resold 7.50 calls that expire on 2/16 for 21 cents. I will resell the 8.00 calls when it hopefully rallies towards 8.00 again this week.

Disclosure: I am long AAPL, MCP, GMCR, HLF, NUAN.

Additional disclosure: I plan to buy APPL calls, sell PBR puts, sell APOL puts and calls, sell MCP calls, in the next couple days. I plan to buy MCO and APOL stock in the next couple days too.