Seeking Alpha

Robert Edwards'  Instablog

Robert Edwards
Send Message
Contrarian daytrading technician who specializes in locating high probability short term trades while predicting price movement directions with over 85% accuracy. Most of my trading involves either extremely short term micro scalping of stocks or commodities (using 1 minute bar charts), or swing... More
  • Get Ready To Buy DUST Below 80, As GDX Should Weaken By Friday.  5 comments
    May 8, 2013 9:53 PM | about stocks: DUST, NUGT, GDX

    If you have been following my DUST Road Map articles (the last posted 4/24/13 and you can find it here seekingalpha.com/instablog/6143431-robert-edwards/1793131-dust-road-map-has-been-golden you would know that I was calling for DUST to stop dropping from the recent high of nearly 120, and looking for a bottom 70 to 80.

    Right on schedule DUST stopped going down just under 76, which allowed me to get long and make a nice move to 92. Unfortunately my 95 to 105 target was not reached on the first try. The next rally attempt stopped at 94 and then after playing in the 80s we finally hit the 95 target yesterday. I played the first two pops but did not play the final one as I was getting ready to reverse and go the other way. Instead of buying NUGT, the triple long GDX ETF, and the direct opposite of DUST, I chose to sell 32 strike puts on Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) on Tuesday, 5/07/13 that expire this Friday. I also bought a few shares of NEM. Well, after one strong rally today, 5/08/13, I am now out of NEM and the puts I sold for 31 cents are virtually worthless. I am now calling for NEM to top out between 34 and 35 on Thursday and to then start another down move. If I am right, then DUST should again get some support towards the 75 to 76 area or slightly lower and should be a nice buy. I expect DUST to bottom and then move 20 to 30 dollars off the low over the next couple weeks. I will post updates in the comments section of this article so check back to see what is going on if you like.

    Long-term I am very bullish gold stocks and feel they may be the best sector to be involved in during late 2013 and most of 2014. However, I do not feel that gold is through going down and we really need to trade under $1300 for gold to make a meaningful bottom in the $1225 to $1240 area. When the precious metal trades below $1300 is when I will stop playing DUST and will get serious about owning NEM and other gold stocks.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in DUST over the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: DUST, NUGT, GDX
Back To Robert Edwards' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (5)
Track new comments
  • Robert Edwards
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Today's low so far is 75.34, so it appears my prediction of a low at 75 to 76 was right on. I bought in there of course. However, prior to buying at the swing low, I was also able to buy at 82.09 in the premarket and we got a pop over 84 to take profits. Then the first time we stopped just above 80, I was able to buy at 80.21 and if anyone had bought at 81.50 to 82 early and hung a few shares, DUST rallied to 82.26 to let you out. Then another did to 80 even, and I bought again at 80.51 (a bit slow getting in this time) but sold out at 81.44 (it stopped at 81.46 so I got lucky there). The next stop down was 86.50 and a couple dips to 85.50, and you know I bought on those. Pops back above 87 let me take some partial profits again. Is there any better daytrading vehicle than DUST? I was able to predict the low even before the market opened. This ETF trades true and is so bouncy, and so much back and forth action, whether going long or short, it will let both parties make money.
    9 May 2013, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Edwards
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Last article posted 2 minutes prior to 2:00 p.m. rumor that made dollar rally and gold and gold stocks sell off, and boom, DUST pops to 84.50 but does not take out 84.74 high made earlier. Got out on move towards high of day.....what a great day trading DUST!!! Will be buying all dips in DUST for forseeable future.
    9 May 2013, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Edwards
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I bot 3 times at 89 today for small daytrade in DUST. My rule is 2 buys at support are safe, 3rd is pushing it. We just pushed down through support so DUST has topped for now. Look for a move to 75 to 80 again early next week. I bot Newmont Mining (NEM) today near lows at 22.15 to 22.20 and will daytrade from the long side 2-3 days. Look for 1400 to 1420 to hold for 3 or 4 days before support gives out. Switching to bullish gold for Monday thru Wednesday next week. Late Wednesday and Thursday morning I will be looking to buy DUST again on weakness for turn up again. I don't consider the shooting star action of today's gap up doji as very positive.
    10 May 2013, 01:29 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Edwards
    , contributor
    Comments (481) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, we weakened so much in DUST in the last hour that instead of a DOJI pattern we did an inverse (upside down) hammer pattern. An inverse hammer pattern is not recognized as a real pattern (I created it). and like to trade it. I bought some DUST in aftermarket at 84.04 and 83.51. We will either gap up strong on Monday morning (retrace part of the fast late day sell-off in DUST and rally in gold and GDX) where I will cash out the DUST shares for a nice profit. Or we will open weak and I will add more shares and we then rally for the next day or two. Either way, a quick morning pop creates a profit or a lower opening in DUST gets bought up and we move higher for the next day or two. I will let you know how it went.
    10 May 2013, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • tanriseven
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Please let us know. I would prefer when to do what.
    10 May 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.