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Robert Edwards
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Contrarian daytrading technician who specializes in locating high probability short term trades while predicting price movement directions with over 85% accuracy. Most of my trading involves either extremely short term micro scalping of stocks or commodities (using 1 minute bar charts), or swing... More
  • Bernanke Speech On Wednesday Or Thursday Should Make Gold Top This Week 1 comment
    Jul 15, 2013 11:28 PM | about stocks: GLD

    (click to enlarge)

    If you look at the image above of the Daily August 2013 Gold Futures Chart, you will see that in April there was a big $200 selloff in 2 days and they comprise the two long black candlesticks above. Then we bottomed on the day marked as Day 1 above, and exactly on Trading Day 9, of the correction following the selloff to new lows, we hit a high of $1485.40. Then on Trading Day 12, we had a hard down day, and two days later on Day 14, we made a marginal new high of $1488.50 and that was a major top.

    Then in May we bottomed again and this time we got a big reversal white candle on Day 1, and again we made a significant high on trading day 9 of the correction phase, at 1421.60. On Day 11 marked above we had a hard selloff and two days later on Day 13 we made a marginal new high at $1423.30. That was a major top.

    Recently when we closed in late June just above $1200, we got a reversal white candle when we hit a low of just under $1180 and then reversed up. That day was Day 1 and then if you count out to Trading Day 9, again you get a significant high. This time the price was $1297.20. It is now Monday, July 15, 2013, as I type this instablog, and we recently completed Trading Day 11. Since we need a down day 2 days before the marginal new high day, it looks like Tuesday, Day 12 will fill that bill if we trade down tomorrow to 1265 or lower in August Gold Futures. Then two days later it would mean Trading Day 14 (Thursday of this week), we should make a marginal new high just above 1297.20 to maybe 1299 or 1300 and roll over. Thus, I am now calling for a major top in gold on Thursday, July 18, 2013, based on the recent counts I have divined on the above chart. It will be fun to see if history is a guide and can give us a clue to the future, a few days in advance. Bernanke is speaking both Wednesday and Thursday of this week so I am thinking he will not say anything special on Wednesday but Thursday he might help rally gold to a marginal new high, based on his words. We should then roll over, if we repeat the recent pattern.

    Even if we don't top out on Thursday, you better believe the next time gold makes a significant low and bottoms, then I will be buying and holding until Trading Day 9 of the correction, where I expect a significant high will be made.

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  • Robert Edwards
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    Author’s reply » Called top perfectly just as predicted. Wednesday, 7/17/13 at 8:30 a.m. EST the report caused gold to pop to a marginal new high at 1298 which is a marginal new high above 1297.20 just like was predicted. Shorted 1296.50 in August Gold and took profits and went long 1289. Took profits on long 1292.50 and then shorted 1295. Took profits 1292 and then shorted 1297.20 but took profits 1296 as it looked like we were going to surge one more time. Few minutes later another marginal new high at 1299.70 allowing me a chance to short again and finally took profits and went long at 1279. Did not like the action off the bottom so took profits 1281 and will now look for another rally to short. Will be playing from short side for now.
    17 Jul 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
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