Seeking Alpha

Robert Edwards'  Instablog

Robert Edwards
Send Message
Contrarian daytrading technician who specializes in locating high probability short term trades while predicting price movement directions with over 85% accuracy. Most of my trading involves either extremely short term micro scalping of stocks or commodities (using 1 minute bar charts), or swing... More
  • Carter Worth On CNBC's Options Action May Have Saved The Day For Gold Mining ETFs GDX & NUGT 3 comments
    Nov 16, 2013 1:04 AM | about stocks: GLD, GDX, NUGT, DUST, NEM

    In my last article (click here), I indicated gold and the miners would work lower for three days, Monday thru Wednesday, Nov. 11-13, 2013. I hit it perfectly as gold popped up $18 on Thursday, Nov. 14th, and the gold mining ETF GDX and triple leveraged miner ETF NUGT were up big. bottoming right on schedule. That day Americanbulls.com got long GLD, NUGT, and Newmont Gold (NYSE:NEM), see here.

    However on Friday, Nov. 15th, gold managed to rally slightly but the miners gave back much of their gains. Take a look at this daily chart of GDX:

    (click to enlarge)

    Today we did a bearish engulfing pattern which typically suggests a move lower. But today's high was greater than yesterday's high, and although today's low was just slightly lower, we still maintained the Thursday gap that should provide support down to Wednesday's close of 23.91. Also, one can look at the red candlestick on the chart that was formed on October 23rd, right after a nice gap up day. At that time GDX snapped right back and rallied for the next three days. Also, if you look at the gap up days of July 11th & July 16th, each time there were two down days before GDX could continue higher. So the Thursday, Nov. 14th gap up day was followed by a weak Friday and could see some weakness on Monday, then Tuesday could still provide the big rally day we are looking for.

    We just got the news that George Soros and other hedge funds were buying GDX but that did not seem to help for today. But after the markets closed, Carter Worth, technical analyst for CNBC, spoke on Options Action with Melissa Lee, and explained why GDX was carving out a long-term bottom, and should be purchased. If you missed the broadcast, be sure and check it out here. As soon as the show came on, buying swept into the miners, causing a 20 cent rally in GDX, 11 cent rally in NEM, and 60 cent rally in NUGT. This could have bullish implications that carry over to Monday morning. I was fortunate that I bought a few NUGT shares 12 cents down from the close, so when we rallied 60 cents up from the close, I was able to dump the NUGT shares I was effectively long after the puts I sold during the day got exercised. Instead of going long 1000 shares of NUGT over the weekend, I am now only long 400. This also frees up cash to buy low priced shares to average down, if there is any weakness on Monday.

    NUGT had a $2.99 range on Friday, closing at the bottom of the range. We should rally $1 to $2 above the close sometime on Monday, even if we ultimately fade into the close. No real technical damage was done with Friday's weakness, it was just frustrating to see the miners so weak with gold slightly up on the day. Although we have slipped to as low as 23.50 during the last 11 trading days, GDX has primarily been trading between 24 and 24.90 for these past couple weeks. I would suggest that traders use anticipated strength to lighten up on their positions if allowed to do so in the next couple trading sessions.

    If we should close strongly higher on Monday, Nov. 18th, I would expect the rally to continue through Wednesday. If we go sideways to lower on Monday, I would sell out partially on strength, but buy back on weakness, in preparation for a strong Tuesday pop. We have only completed 6 days of trading since the recent 23.50 low in GDX, and have made very slow and measured progress to the upside. We should carry the rally for another 3 to 6 days to complete a time cycle. I can comment more in real time in the Seeking Alpha's Stock Talk thread that runs simultaneously under GDX, GLD, NEM, NUGT & DUST. Hope to see you there.

    Disclosure: I am long NUGT.

    Additional disclosure: Also long NEM and gold futures

    Stocks: GLD, GDX, NUGT, DUST, NEM
Back To Robert Edwards' Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (3)
Track new comments
  • njtoms
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Monday should Provide a Nice Carryover for NUGT. As Always Great Article. It was Not only Carter, but 2 other Options Panelists that also gave GDX Ringing Endorsements. Robert, Thanks Again for Your Service to Us and Enjoy You Weekend. You Deserve It.

     

    Best/Noel
    16 Nov 2013, 09:19 AM Reply Like
  • njtoms
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Robert, just found this. Go2 Tim Knight's Slope of Hope Web Site.
    Great article regarding a potential IHS on the HUI. Looks Very Encouraging for NUGT. slopeofhope.com. Have a Fun Saturday Night.
    17 Nov 2013, 12:56 AM Reply Like
  • bobzic
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    $NUGT: Robert, as always your article is very interesting.
    17 Nov 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.