Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

June 28, A Planned Monster For Blackberry

|Includes:AAPL, BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY), NOK

With analysts agreeing that there will be approximately one billion smart phones sold in 2013, this allows blackberry (bbry) the chance to regain some of its lost market share to apple and android and also to gain new footing in new and developing markets.

In the Q4 announcement, blackberry has maintained their 2.65 billion in cash, even though they aggressively spent money on advertising through different forms of media. They continued to have no debt and were even profitable. They sold a total of 6 million smart phones, of which the older models (approx. 5 million) were sold at a loss. The 1 million blackberry z10 sales were only from one month in the UK and Canada and only 2 days in India and with a margin of 40%. Of these z10 sales, 55% of the consumers have come from other platforms. In terms of subscribers, they have gone down from 79 million to 76 million. One could obviously argue that the decrease in subscribers is bad. Basically in the time from the q3 statement, in that four month period, 3 million subscribers deviated to another platform. The z10 and q10 were not yet available in many countries. For those 3 million subscribers that did not want to get another bb7 device and could not wait for the z10 or q10, makes sense. Does that mean this decrease of subscribers is the set trend for blackberry? Delightful as it may be for many of the shorts (approx. 30% of the shares volume), this number may not likely to continue to drop significantly once both new models are released in all of their target markets.

In North America, Blackberry constantly gets negative attention by the media and analysts trying to manipulate the stock performance. In places like Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines, with combined sales of over 118 million smartphones and growing, blackberry already has a strong foothold there.

The Z10 has now been released on all of their target markets and the q10 model has been released in the UK and soon Canada. The phone should be released on April 30 for Canada and the UK and other markets will shortly follow afterwards in may. Their Q1 ends on June 1, and the reporting date is on June 28. By that time both models will have been available for sale for quite some time. The total launch sales of the q10 and z10 will potentially result in a monstrous Q1 report.

Without a doubt, there have been a lot of bearish articles circling the media involving blackberry (bbry). Here are some articles I have found insightful to how the z10 sales are doing.

1. AT&T demand for the z10

2. Verizon demand for the z10

3. Indonesia demand

4. Large potential sale to DoD

For blackberry to be successful, they do not need to sell 50 million phones per quarter like Samsung or apple. Of the one billion phones projected to be sold this year, even just 5% of the one billion phone sales projection would be a major success. Apple's iphone also started off slow, but eventually overtook blackberry in this fickle market. Blackberry has the potential to come back strong and hard with good innovation and proper leadership, both of which they have.

Disclosure: I am long BBRY.