Full index of posts »
StockTalks

I am long NLY and increased my holdings of AGNC as of this morning. Dec 5, 2012

I've been interviewed on the Nationally Syndicated "George Jarkesy" Radio Show http://bit.ly/N3UhWX Aug 16, 2012

I have a new article on AGNC and NLY pending. Aug 5, 2012
Posts by Themes
401K,
Airlines,
Alternate Fuels,
Backwardation,
bailout,
Bank Failures,
banking,
Basic Materials,
Bernanke,
Biofuel,
bonds,
brent,
Brent,
CDO,
cellular,
Certificates of Deposit,
Chemicals,
Commodities,
commodities,
Contango,
Corn price,
Corporate Bond Funds,
Crack Spread,
Crack Spreads,
Crude Oil,
Crude oil,
crude oil pricing,
debt,
deficit,
Deflation,
disposable income,
distillates,
dividendideas,
DJIA,
djia price,
energy,
Energy,
Energy Equipment,
Energy Mutual Funds,
Energy Service,
environment,
ethanol,
Ethanol,
Federal Money Market Funds,
fin reg,
financial,
Foreclosures,
Gasoline consumption,
Gasoline Demand,
Gasoline Prices,
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.
Raw Data: The Future Price Of AGNC 0 comments
Thanks for clicking on this. Here is my rationale:
Each quarterly stock issuance raises capital. The amount is based on the number of shares and the offering price.
The capital can be applied at a given leverage rate, as indicated in the financials for AGNC, to expand the portfolio. The company can then use the portfolio at the interest rate spread, which last quarter was 2.31% to derive the income.
It can and will distribute the income in the form of dividends at a known rate.
Leverage:
If you calculate this on the basis of the table on page 56 of the AGNC annual report and calculate the amount of funds raised during 2011 and compare that to the change in portfolio value, the result is reasonably close to the average 7.86:1 leverage value that is stated in AGNC's investor fact sheet. Using the leverage to compute the amount of incremental portfolio that AGNC can add with each incremental share issuance, we can then use the interest rate spread data to compute the amount of income that can be derived from the portfolio:
Income derived from the increased portfolio:
We have to make a couple of adjustments. If we multiply the portfolio value by the interest rate spread, we get a number that is slightly different from the actual net interest income, and there is a similar adjustment when translating from net income to actual dividend payout:
Here is the spreadsheet model I've used:
These are the independent variables:
Income efficiency is the ratio of "theoretical net income", which is the portfolio value times the interest rate spread, and "actual net income" from the financials. The reason there is a difference is the interest expense and other operating expenses.
The dividend payout ratio is relatively straightforward. It's the average percentage that is paid out in dividends.
Interest Stability: I built the model to test what would happen in scenarios of increasing or decreasing interest rate spread. 1.0 is no change, 1.02 is a 2% increase in spread, .98 is a 2% decrease, for example.
Yield Stability is the same thing: 1.0 is steady yield, using the initial assumption of 18%, 1.02 would be a 2% increase, .98 would be a 2% decrease. A decrease in yield is not all bad, it represents an increase in the stock price.
Here's the first half of the data table:
and here is the second half:
The model price is the output I used for the graphs in the main article.
Here is Scenario 1, the base case;
Scenario 2: Decreasing interest rate spread
Scenario 3:
Scenario 4: Increased Leverage
5. Decaying Yield (stock price steadily going up)
41.59550363
Do with this information what you will.
Disclosure: I am long AGNC.
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.
Share this Instablog with a colleague