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  • Amarin's Potential Buyers 2 comments
    Oct 13, 2012 4:27 PM | about stocks: AMRN, AZN, MRK, PFE, GSK

    Rumors on Seeking alpha and Yahoo message board are flying about an acquisition deal by the end of Nov.2012.

    Amarin has confirmed in SEC filings on 10/10/2012 that they are looking at 3 options:

    1) Sale of Amarin

    2) Partnership

    3) Self marketing with overseas alliances.

    Amarin was supposed to finalize the decision by now--but evidently Sale discussions are active. This is confirmed by Canaccord anf Jeffries. Recall Canaccord started covering Amarin when it was selling at 3.27 $/share. So even with sharp decline after NCE decision delays-- her clients have made 220%.

    Now comes speculation.Many have suggested Astra Zeneca or Glaxo SK or Pfizer or Merck.The list is pretty large.

    I would rule out AZN,because they are too busy with Amylin and their new CEO is reviewing the Strategic plan--as AZN spent 5 bil.$ on acquisitions so far in 2012 under acting CEO.

    GSK is desperate--as they are facing a loss of Lovaza sales to Vascepa and later to generics .So 900mil.$ sales would drop to 100 million$ in 2015. They have contract with Pronovo till 2014--but that can be taken care off by paying licensing fees of 180 mil.$

    GSK paid 1.65 Bill.$ in 2007 for Lovaza rights in USA/Puerto Rico. I think that they are willing to pay 3.5 bil.$.But that is 23$/share.

    Amarin is hoping for 30$ plus offer.

    Will Pfizer step in to offer 32$ and clinch a BINDING DEAL before GSK haggles with 23$/share offer.

    Last year in May,2011--with only Marine Trial data--but no anchor trial data,no patents,no Reduce_IT study underway, the offers were close to 15$/share. Joe Zakrzewski wanted 30$/share. So no deal materialized.

    This time--it is different--Vascepa will be launched in 90 days.Inventories are being build up. Manufacturers names are public knowledge. Marketing is in full swings.

    If GSK does not close up the deal soon--then Pfizer or Merck will most likely . The major private equity shareholders who are on the Board of Directors--want to SELL OUT.

    So chances of a deal by the end of this year are 75%.

    Disclosure: I am long AMRN.

    Themes: Drugs for Cardiology Stocks: AMRN, AZN, MRK, PFE, GSK
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  • tung1953
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    GSK paid 1.65 Bill.$ in 2007 for Lovaza rights in USA/Puerto Rico. I think that they are willing to pay 3.5 bil.$.But that is 23$/share.

     

    Is this just your opinion, or do you have a "source" that has given you this information.
    14 Oct 2012, 02:04 AM Reply Like
  • Jeremy's friend
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » To arrive at the buyers--I used 2 reliable sources for names.
    To narrow -I used Game Theory--GSK,PFizer are the likely buyers.
    To arrive at 23$/share--I used price paid for Reliant in 2007 as a base--and using similar assumptions-came up with 23$/share as the lowest price.
    So 23$/share is starting bid--not the final bid price.

     

    FYI--Nobel Prize for Economics was awarded for this theory today.These economists used it to match students with employers.
    I started out with GSK,Pfizer,Astra Zeneca,Merck and Sanofi.
    15 Oct 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
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