I was just looking back about what I wrote and 'm pretty glad with the outcome of the call on the crude.
Back in September of 2009, I posted the blog stating that the oil run may be over. Another nine months have passed and the crude has came back down to the $70's level. I am glad I was out of oil (stocks) and that put my money to better use somewhere else.
In the past 6 - 9 months, it looks like the crude didn't want to go anywhere. It's been trading in a range. Either that's been great for short term traders or extremely frustrating for those who's been betting it to go long or short. In either case, my call is that oil is not ready to go anywhere for a while. so either keep the trading range game or look for somewhere else.
On the brighter side, there's good news. With lower energy prices, this can only mean good news for companies and the economy. Having said, crude will be one of the big factors that will be setting up for another bull leg in the stock market.
In the mean time, look out for sectors like (unhedged) airlines or shipping companies where more than 1/3 of their costs is from fuel. Think about this, for every $1 saved, it's a $1 in the pocket. Wherelse, for every $1 earn, you're keeping a fraction of it only!
My last post on this...
Disclosure: GNK, DSX, GSH
I was right about the last Oil bull in Sept 09
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