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Overall I am a conservative investor with a diversified portfolio. As a sideline I gamble on single positions for a short-term gain. I hunt for bargains especially in Tech as that is my home turf. I do this normally (but not always) for a day trade before escaping back to cash. My specialty is... More
  • TWTR: The Canary In The Coal Mine 0 comments
    Jan 8, 2014 12:17 PM | about stocks: TWTR

    There will be some differences of opinion on the value of Twitter TWTR stock. I want to address those who agree that this is one of the most bubbly stocks around now.

    There are two ways to create wealth in the technology sector. One way is the Netflix NFLX way: have a solid business plan and attempt to execute it. The other way is the Facebook FB, Google GOOG, and Amazon AMZN way: have a technology idea that you think will just have to rule one way or another. Amazon is the worst fit for this second category. But they went in this category because they just had no prospect of making money for the longest time; this approach would never be conducted by the business-plan crowd.

    Does anyone understand why TWTR has such a high market capitalization? Okay you hear about them everywhere, plenty of free advertising, but human beings love jumping on a bandwagon, especially if it's a free ride. There could suddenly be a worldwide trend towards literacy, with people deciding they can stand to read long sentences extending way past 140 characters.

    So the canary in the coal mine for momentum tech stocks is TWTR. You can feel safe holding almost anything else within reason. As long as the market can support TWTR at its current valuation, there must be money to be made with better momentum stocks, which would be just about any other comparable stock.

    Disclosure: I am long FB.

    Additional disclosure: The only position related to TWTR I would even consider is selling it short.

    Stocks: TWTR
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