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Philip Davis
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  • Phil's 7:22 AM Alert to Members Tracking Virtual Portfolio - Amazing!  1 comment
    Dec 7, 2010 5:46 PM | about stocks: CMG, NFLX, QID, XRT, USO, PCLN
     Monday's 1050P Activity:

    We closed the 5 CMG $230 puts on Friday for $2.50 (up $575) and the 5 NFLX Jan $155 puts at $2.50 (up $250) so that's a total of + $1,825 cash for the week off our $26,000 starting base.  Not bad but it looks like we may be in danger of giving it all back today.  With just 2 weeks to go on our Dec plays, we have to roll out but the question is, are we still bearish and do we have a legitimate upside strategy?  

    • 5 QID Jan $10 calls at $2.30, now $2 – Rolled from to Dec $11 calls for $1.
    • 20 DIA $110 puts at .77 average, now .30 – We were hoping to get out at .56 but that's not happening, nor is .30 looking good anymore.  When you are looking at a total write-off like this (probably $500 out of $770) you can risk the $270 that's left by flipping to a vertical.  IF we get a good deal, I'd like to sell the $113 puts for perhaps .70 and then roll to the $114 puts for .70 or less so we spend nothing to move to a $1 vertical that at least has a chance of paying off if the Dow is beaten back from 11,500.  To defend the upside, we can then go for a positive play above the 1,450 line (assuming we open up 100).  
    • 5 XRT Jan $44 puts at .80, now .50 – No longer fine.  We get some retail sales numbers today so we'll see what they say.  I'm generally inclined to spend .40 to roll up to the $46 puts if possible.  That puts us in 5 at net $1.20 on puts that were $1.30 on Friday with 6 weeks to go.  With just $600 committed, we can easily DD at .80 and that would put us in 10 at net $1 and down 20%, not terrible but again, we need an upside cover before we start raising our short bets but the rolls are necessary in either case. 
    • 10 USO Jan $36 puts at $1.10 average, now .80 – we doubled down at .73 and rolled up from the $35 puts for .25, long time left so we intend to let the January NYMEX delivery cycle play out.  
    • 2 PCLN WEEKLY $400 puts at $1.25, still $1.25 - PCLN took a little dive at the end but we'll be lucky to get out even on these if the market is flying. 
    • 5 NFLX Jan $155 puts at $2.30, now $2.20.  I regretted not doubling down on those last time they dropped to $1.70 so that's our plan this time.  On the whole, I want to have shorts over the holidays, even if we do get long on some things for the next couple of weeks.  

    So, we could cash out and be up about $1,000 and, in this very uncertain market, that is not a bad plan.  As I'll be writing in the morning post, it's all about the Dow breaking 11,500, which is where we were in early November before things got ugly and we pulled back 500.  This is either an amazing breakout that reflects the New World Order or a double top that reflects the same old BS - I wish I was sure which it was - obviously, I'm smelling the BS but we can't keep fighting the Global Fed forever as they seem to come up with a new way to pump up the markets every week.  

    Perhaps this is their last hurrah (Europe "fixed", Extending the tax cuts, Extending unemployment) but Ben could still firm up more aid and Germany can give in and drop another $500Bn on Europe and, of course, Japan could always do whatever ineffective thing they do next so there's still some dry powder for the Central Banks to fire off between now and Christmas.

    May the Lloyd bless us, everyone!  

     

     

    - Phil
    Stocks: CMG, NFLX, QID, XRT, USO, PCLN
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  •  
    "This is either an amazing breakout that reflects the New World Order or a double top that reflects the same old BS."

    I just gotta tell ya Phil, I was surprised to see you write that. You're much more well informed than I'd realized. No insult intended... that would be my own fault for not having noticed it before. In any event, that puts you in the camp of about 3% of North Americans who are aware of what's really going on. Europeans are far, far better informed than we are.

    I've seen you on BNN and am a big fan. Keep joining them for interviews whenever you can, ok? I was very pleasantly surprised to have seen you quote some of my work about 6 months ago, concerning the number of green Mondays. Here... here's another one of my faves because this is an extremely hot topic at the moment... or 'should be', but nobody seems to be talking about it except me. Use it anytime you want. lol

    stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...

    Here's the comment that I posted yesterday which the above chart was embedded in, and which explains in detail what it's all about. This is damned important stuff.

    seekingalpha.com/user/...

    I'm only throwing this at you because nobody else seems to see the incredible importance this relationship is showing... and that 'IT IS RESOLVING'. Something big is coming down.

    All the best,
    Dan
    7 Dec 2010, 06:16 PM Reply Like
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