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  • Phil's Pre-Market Alert to Members 0 comments
    Mar 22, 2011 7:26 AM | about stocks: EWJ

    Good morning! 

    Yes, the dollar CAN go even lower - now 75.53 as the Euro tests $1.425 and the Pound blasts off to $1.64.  Amazingly the Yen is at 81.07 so apparently the BOJ is supporting the Pound and Euro while letting the Dollar die.  Makes sense, our consumers don't have enough money left to buy Japanese goods anyway.  

    Goldman put out a letter this morning telling clients to watch out for inflation (so quick those guys!). 

    Not bothering the international markets and our futures are flat at the moment (7am):  

    Overseas: Japan +4.4%. Hong Kong +0.8%. China +0.3%. India+0.9%. London +0.3%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt +0.1%. 

    Not a big climb to pop the S&P over the Major Breakout line at 1,300 and it should bother us if they can't do it.  Like yesterday, the Nasdaq has some work to do and keep in mind that our other indexes are right on those lines so any downward movement is going to be bad.  

    Maybe it's good to see the Nasdaq lagging.  There's a very interesting article in Wired Magazine that reports on a study that indicates that strong correlations in stock movement are good indicators that a crash is coming.  It makes sense to me since that's the kind of fake Bot trading that we know is going to lead to disaster anyway.  

    Yemen is really heating up with a bunch of Generals joining the rebels now.  Syrian protesters are ignoring curfews and taking to the streets and, for some reason, Israel decided today would be a good day to call an air strike on weapons manufacturers in the Gaza strip - I guess they were feeling left out...

    Keep in mind that these are all, by themselves, things that would usually make the markets nervous and probably pull back.  Even SNE is not down and they are flat out telling people that they havebeen forced to halt production at several plants with no firm re-start dates.  

    EWJ WEEKLYAre we already back to a market where bad news "just doesn't matter" - even when we now have an estimate of 18,400 deaths in Japan - more than 4 times what we lost on 9/11 yet they are having a V-shaped recovery in a matter of days?  

    They had a 6.3 quake this morning which, of course, "just doesn't matter" and, as I mentioned last night, we have now moved into the phases of quantifying the damage and most estimates fall under the "Oh, is that all?" category, like insurance:  

    Moody’s Investors Service has weighed in on life insurance companies with exposure to Japan, sounding relatively upbeat about their exposure to the devastating earthquake and tsunami. Despite some panic last week among investors, Moody’s estimates that these companies will sustain “moderate but manageable” losses, but not enough to prompt credit rating downgrades.

    The MSM and the punditocracy may not be very concerned with what's going on but I am.  I think that we're experiencing a sort of stock market survivor's high, where investors are so relieved we didn't crash that they are ignoring the fact that there's another cliff just ahead.  Let's make sure we have our disaster hedges in place and keep at least one hand on the emergency exit - just in case we don't breeze over our levels. 

     

    Stocks: EWJ
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