Well that didn’t take long, did it?
On Tuesday I suggested selling into the day’s rally, saying: "so it’s back to cash as we wait for the crash" and it wasn’t a very long wait as the Greek euphoria wore off quickly and there was nothing from yesterday’s FOMC statement (see Member Chat for details) or Bernanke’s press conference that was supportive for the bulls. In fact, I sent out a Member Alert on the Fed statement right at 12:38 warning: "Dollar poking back over 75 but little reaction overall but this is bearish with the Fed recognizing inflation in their changed language (no QE3)." That led us to grab the QQQ weekly $55 puts at 12:39 for just .30 and they finished the day up 55%.
Of course we had to shake off the fake rally first as the markets topped out around 2:20 but, fortunately, we called that right too as I said to Members: "Fake rally – Sure, what do the minutes say that is bullish? The Fed recognized that inflation is taking hold, they do not intend to extend QE2 and they are downgrading their view on the economy. WHERE’S THE BEEF?" In that comment we also hit the SCO July $46/50 bull call spread at $2, selling USO Aug $35 puts for .96 for a net $1.04 entry on the $4 spread. With USO taking a dive today (but just down to $36.50), SCO should be flying well over $50 – see how that works?
Of course our real play of the day was my morning call to short oil again as they tested the $95 line. At 2pm in Member Chat, ahead of The Bernank(and again at 2:31, while he was speaking), I reiterated the Futures Short to Members at the $95.50 line and we got a drop all the way to $94 last night but it didn’t stop there and this morning we’re down to $92.50.
I don’t advocate holding oil Futures overnight so we’ll just call that a $1.50 win on 345,000 contracts for $517.5M of potential gains so congrats to those who got their share (at a rate of $1,500 per contract!) as we continue to stick it to the bastards at the NYMEX by calling their bluff when they pretend to want to buy barrels for inflated prices.
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