Philip Davis'  Instablog

Wow, what ugly looking futures! 

2 major factors are driving us down:

1) Japan, where too strong Yen (88.6), -0.1% industrial output, -1.7% exports, rising unemployment (just 5.2%) AND lower houshold spending (-0.7%) numbers sent the Nikkei down 1.25% today to 9,570.

If you think about it though, pretty much all of that is a strong Yen issue because it lowers demand for the exports (making them more expensive) and then factories slow down and people get laid off and household spending drops from that PLUS the fact that it's now cheaper for them to buy imports so they can buy the same stuff at lower prices. 

So, overall, nothing people shouldn't have expected but ugly to read about.

2) China, where the Shanghai fell 4.27% today to 2,427, which is a lot because they are a 10% limit down market on individual stocks so you can bet the selling isn't done if the AVERAGE was down 4.27%.  The Hang Seng was ugly too, falling 2.3% to 20,248. 

What sent China off a cliff was kind of silly.  The Conference Board, which is a NY-based research firm had reported that Chinese economic indicators rose 1.7% in April - something at the time (June 15th) we thought sounded a bit high.  Well, funny thing is it turns out the people at the Conference Board must have been high on something because it turns out they made a "calculation error" and the correct number was just 0.3%. 

So Asia was awful and, in Europe, it's another day of protest in Greece and Europe is dropping 2% at their open and takind our futures down about 1.25% so far (4am).  Let's watch those international 2.5% lines (red ones are the downside of course) around our key levels (circled).  None of these charts reflect today's action, unfortunately but we will be looking for the DAX to show a little strength on that 6,000 line and we hope the FTSE can hold 5,000 and CAC 3,500:

We needed a blow-off bottom and hopefully this is it and not a sign that we're in another deep downtrend (as many are betting on).  We have our TZA disaster hedge from Friday and Thursday's SPX and other SDS hedges (like the one on the Buy List) short-term but we are generally too bullish for this drop, especially on our Mattress Play where the June 30th $102 puts we sold for $1.60 are going to be well in the money today (so they have to be rolled to July).   

Since we can expect the VIX to shoot back up to 40, the best way to add protection is going to be selling puts on ultra-shorts against bull call spreads, like TZA July $6/7 bull call at .60, selling Aug $6 put for .48 is net .12 on $1 spread for a 733% upside.  Our risk is owning TZA at $6 but a drop like this should show you that owning a little TZA can be quite comforting in the event of an emergency so if you are protecting $25K invested in a $100KP, then selling just 20 TZA Aug $6 puts (which can be rolled) for $960 and sprending $240 more out of pocket buys you $2,000 of downside protection and your risk is owning 2,000 TZA at net $6.12.

Keep in mind that, if you are looking at a $2,000 loss on your $25,000 at this level then if TZA stops your bleeding here, even if the market rallies back and you end up losing $1 on 2,000 shares - it's going to be the $2,000 you get back on your $25,000 bullish positions.  It is worth sacrificing some upside to protect your principal when we don't know how bad things are going to get. 

We absolutely don't want to buy puts as the VIX will send the premiums way up and we'll be paying top dollar on a momentum play.  That's why we'll be looking for some reverse-index puts to sell, like the TZAs because, even if the market turns back up, the VIX will shrink and our buyback won't be so bad if we decide to take it off the table. 

So let's not panic - this is why we are 75% in cash and this is why we always have a disaster hedge in place, to take advantage of just such a drop!  Take a good look over the Buy List as we'll get some excellent entries and also, in the comments on the buy list, we had some 10 margin plays to make and those should also give us great prices into the drop as well as our list of 500%+ plays, which we should also get great entries on BUT - let's make sure our red levels (-2.5%) hold up first:

Globally money is FLYING out of stocks and into US Treasuries and we are now at record lows (very bad for TBT) so we'll watch that as well as $77.50 oil (now $76.60) and $3 copper (we're right on the line) as both are generally bullish levels despite all this panic.   

If this selling keeps up, it's going to be a rotten way to end the first half of the year but, as I mentioned last week, we were relentlessly driven down last year from June 12th (8,800) through July 10th (8,150), a 7.5% drop that was reversed in one week and led to the insane rally that took us up to 10.500 in November so it seems a little premature to panic as we fall from 10,500 on June 18th to perhaps 9,800 today (6.66%).

I'm expecting Case-Shiller Home Prices to be a relief (9am) and Consumer Confidence at 10am may be an upside surprise as well so maybe our open won't be all that bad but, right now - the futures are awful!  Ideally, we'd like to hold those June 8th spike lows and the June 7th close.  I'll put up those numbers in the morning post.