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66 years old BA history (VPI) MA management (Central Michigan) Army War College graduate retired Marine colonel (31+ years commissioned service; 21+ years active duty) retired businessman (last three positions: Director of Human Resources; Director of Operations Management; Assistant... More
  • BEWARE EMPTY SHELVES!!! 0 comments
    May 24, 2013 10:11 AM

    We aging retail investors who make our own investment selections might want to think hard on a creeping threat to the availability of shares in the not-so-distant future. As we see volatility continue to ebb and flow it is natural for seasoned observers to attribute this movement not only to uncertainty, but also largely to the contituous churning of holdings by investment firm funds in order to maintain a level of calm within their clientbase ranks. This is easily achievable by simply trading to ensure that the big numbers routinely tracked by the vast majority of fund investors, percent return and per share price, convey a reassuring impression of the firm's fiduciary diligence in the face of unrelenting negative media coverage of both domestic and foreign economic conditions, as well as geopolitical/financial upheavals. Recent complaints by investment houses about not receiving adequate allocations for new issues caused me to consider the state of availability for "old" shares. I realized that I have read and heard numerous snippets about lots of sizeable buybacks employing the record corporate cash reserves now possessed by many Blue Chips. I have also noticed much commentary questioning the indecypherable nature of consecutive boom Tuesdays following predictably volatile Fridays and Mondays. What's up? One thing the experts keep saying, and I do value the experts' opinions, is that the market is largely over-bought and under-valued. So, my guess is that one plus one now equals two and one-half. I don't think we independent elder retailers can afford to shy away from buying "high" if we can afford to hold for the mid to long term. Future prices are certain to reflect growing scarcity in availability and thereby effectively hedge traditional market factors to a potentially significant degree. For now, I've become a buy high/hold through the dips/take the distributions/sell higher guy. Isn't it odd to see the shelves relatively full with the storm swirling outside? Well, it will seem even odder to see empty shelves when the weather clears. I'm just sayin...

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