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Andrew Crowder
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Over the last few years I have worked diligently towards refining several of my favorite and most successful stock options strategies. My hard work and diligence have proven to be a success and now I want to share my ideas and strategies with a limited group of like-minded investors. My options... More
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Crowder Options
  • Focus on SMH 0 comments
    Nov 1, 2010 12:25 AM | about stocks: DIA, EFA, EWY, EWZ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IBB, IWM, IYR, QLD, QQQ, RTH, SDS, SMH, SPY, SSO, TBT, TNA, TZA, USO, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY

    Even though the tech-heavy QQQQ and its aggressive counterpart QLD remain in an overbought state, I am now solely focused on SMH for a new short position. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has moved into a “very overbought” state with a RSI (2) reading of 97.5.  Both QQQQ and QLD moved lower Friday which lowered the RSI (2) of both, but kept the high-i indicator above 75. I like to see an RSI (2) reading above 95 before I begin to take a look at the trade.

    Subscribers, be on the lookout for a trade alert tomorrow. The S&P futures   again as I write this, so tomorrow could be the day that I finally take my lumps on my SPY trades. I might keep my DEc10 SPY puts, but I think the others have to go. Also,  have to pull the plug on my TZA trade. FXI is up in the air as I have a 48.7% profit on the trade right now, but with the futures higher I would imagine we will the FXI move in sync.

    Short-Term, High-Probability, Mean Reversion Indicator – as of close 10/29/10

    Benchmark ETFs

    • S&P 500 (SPY) – 65.0 (neutral)
    • Dow Jones (DIA) – 54.7 (neutral)
    • Russell 2000 (IWM) – 51.9 (neutral)
    • NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 75.4 (overbought)

    Sector ETFs

    • Biotech (IBB) –64.7 (neutral)
    • Consumer Discretionary (XLY) – 68.1  (overbought)
    • Health Care (XLV) – 48.4 (neutral)
    • Financial (XLF) – 45.3 (neutral)
    • Energy (XLE) – 55.4 (neutral)
    • Gold Miners (GDX) – 65.6 (neutral)
    • Industrial (XLI) – 43.8 (neutral)
    • Materials (XLB) – 59.4 (neutral)
    • Real Estate (IYR) – 33.9 (neutral)
    • Retail (RTH) – 37.5 (neutral)
    • Semiconductor (SMH) – 85.4 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 97.5
    • United States Oil Fund (USO) – 41.5 (neutral)
    • Utilities (XLU) – 43.5 (neutral)

    International ETFs

    • Brazil (EWZ) – 49.0 (neutral)
    • China 25 (FXI) – 34.4 (neutral)
    • EAFE (EFA) – 49.0 (neutral)
    • South Korea (EWY) – 43.3 (neutral)

    Commodity ETFs

    • Gold (GLD) – 64.2 (neutral)

    Ultra Extremes

    • Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) – 45.9 (neutral)
    • Small-Cap Bull 3x (TNA) – 50.0 (neutral)
    • UltraLong QQQQ (QLD) – 77.4 (overbought)
    • Ultra Long S&P 500 (SSO) – 61.9 (neutral)
    • Ultra Short S&P 500 (SDS) – 37.0 (neutral)
    • UltraShort 20+ Treasury (TBT) – 53.1 (neutral)

    I work hard to bring you my latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find my thoughts useful please show your support by joining my newsletter service.

    Watch and learn firsthand how I implement my options strategies.

    Kindest,

    Andy




    Disclosure: Short SPY and FXI. Long TZA.
    Stocks: DIA, EFA, EWY, EWZ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IBB, IWM, IYR, QLD, QQQ, RTH, SDS, SMH, SPY, SSO, TBT, TNA, TZA, USO, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY
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