Andrew Crowder's  Instablog

Andrew Crowder
Send Message
Over the last few years I have worked diligently towards refining several of my favorite and most successful stock options strategies. My hard work and diligence have proven to be a success and now I want to share my ideas and strategies with a limited group of like-minded investors. My options... More
My company:
My blog:
Crowder Options
  • Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator. QQQQ – Short-Term Fade? 0 comments
    Jan 11, 2011 6:54 PM | about stocks: DIA, EEM, EFA, EWY, EWZ, FXI, GDX, GLD, IBB, IWM, IYR, OIH, QLD, QQQ, RTH, SDS, SMH, SPY, SSO, TBT, TNA, TZA, USO, VXX, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLU, XLV, XLY

    First of all I would like to apologize for the short reprieve. I have been ill for several weeks now, but things got worse last week as I fell ill with the flu. After being reminded just how awful the flu can make you feel I think I might consider actually getting a shot next year.

    Also, as an Oregon Duck alum and long time fan, I was certainly not enthused by the result of the game last night. It is great to see just how far the program has come over the years. Just like my High-Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy, patience and persistence pays. We will be back. Go PAC-10 and Go Ducks!!!

    Okay, now with QQQQ pushing into “very overbought” territory with the eighth day of trading in January behind us could the following occur: going back over the last seven years if you purchased QQQQ on the 8th trading day of January and held until the end of the month, you would have had returns of -2.3%, -3.1%, -2.3%, -2.7%, -4.1% ,-1.6% and -7.7%.  The median maximum gain during those trades was +0.7% compared to a median draw down of -5.3%.

    As most of you know I have been stating this for several weeks now and as a result, I could potentially take a position in the Q’s early tomorrow if the price action is right at the open. The middle of January is historically weak, particularly for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ). So far my indicators have not led me astray and I have a feeling they will not this time around. Of course, as we all know, Mr. Probability can tease us on occasion, but as traders all we have is probabilities and with everything lining up for a short-term reprieve I think I like my chances at the moment. Subscribers, stay tuned for a possible alert tomorrow.

    If you haven’t already, don’t forget to sign-up for my Free 30-day trial. Also, for those of you who live on Facebook. You can access my daily info there as well. Just click on LIKE

    Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator – as of close 1/11/10

    Benchmark ETFs

    * S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) – 70.2 (overbought)
    * Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) –58.9 (neutral)
    * Russell 2000 (NYSEARCA:IWM) – 59.3 (neutral)
    * NASDAQ 100 (QQQQ) – 85.1 (very overbought)

    Sector ETFs

    *Biotech (NASDAQ:IBB) – 70.5 (overbought)
    Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) – 48.8 (neutral)
    * Health Care (NYSEARCA:XLV) – 76.0 (overbought)
    Financial (NYSEARCA:XLF) – 56.7 (neutral)
    * Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE) – 71.0 (overbought)
    Gold Miners (NYSEARCA:GDX) – 44.5 (neutral)
    * Industrial (NYSEARCA:XLI) – 84.2 (overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.3
    Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB) – 70.8 (overbought)
    Real Estate (NYSEARCA:IYR) – 42.5 (neutral)
    * Retail (NYSEARCA:RTH) – 38.4 (neutral)
    * Semiconductor (NYSEARCA:SMH) – 81.4 (very overbought)
    United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) – 63.3 (neutral)
    * Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU) – 50.4 (neutral)

    International ETFs

    * Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ) – 55.6 (neutral)
    * China 25 (NYSEARCA:FXI) – 57.1 (neutral)
    * EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFA) – 45.9 (neutral)
    * South Korea (NYSEARCA:EWY) – 60.6 (neutral)

    Commodity ETFs

    * Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) – 49.0 (neutral)

    Ultra Extremes

    * Small Cap Bear 3x (NYSEARCA:TZA) – 38.7 (neutral)
    * Small-Cap Bull 3x (NYSEARCA:TNA) – 59.8 (neutral)
    *UltraLong QQQQ (NYSEARCA:QLD) – 86.1 (very overbought) / RSI (2) – 95.0
    * Ultra Long S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SSO) – 70.3 (overbought)
    * Ultra Short S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SDS) – 28.1 (oversold)
    UltraShort 20+ Treasury (NYSEARCA:TBT) – 53.5 (neutral)

    I work hard to bring you my latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find my thoughts useful please show your support by joining my newsletter service. For the first time, I am offering a 30-Day Free Trial.

    Watch and learn firsthand how I implement my options strategies.



    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in QQQQ over the next 72 hours.
Back To Andrew Crowder's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Most Commented
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.