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Aaron Basile
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Contrarian Investor, Commodities Speculator, Technical Trader.
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Aaron Basile
  • Update - Ucore, Molycorp, Great Western 2 comments
    Feb 18, 2011 10:06 PM | about stocks: MCP
    aaronbasile.wordpress.com/2011/02/18/update-ucore-molycorp-great-western/

    Another quick update on these rare earth producers. Some are starting to look attractive, some are trading as expected, while one has been unpredictable.

    So far I’ve been the most accurate with Ucore. I said not to chase this one and today a large bearish engulfing candle indicates that there has been some profit taking. Don’t go after this, let it come back to you. Support is around $.90 – $.95.

    MCP closed below the 50 Day MA on high volume. I think that this thing is a little oversold but a close below the 50 means that it isn’t likely to make a robust reversal anytime soon. If you’re unsure and looking for exposure, try opening half of a position that way you can lock in this price now and add later if it falls. Regardless, I think that this one’s going to go lower.

    As opposed to Lynas, Molycorp, Stans, and Ucore, Great Western has been everything but predictable. GWMGF appeared to be in a great bullish setup and ready to make a run at $1.25 but that broke down and the stock has been thrashed 9 out of the last 11 trading sessions. It’s beginning to feel like someone has been shorting this stock because it has been oversold for days even though you could argue that it had been due for a pullback. Yesterday, I would have told you that this is a screaming buy based on the fundamentals and the recent range, but after today’s action I think it can go lower. I strongly believe that the market is extremely off on this one and they simply do not understand the fundamentals of this sector and particularly this stock. Support is at $.71 and $.55.

    The Chinese reserve hike definitely had a hand in today’s price action. This sector is heavily reliant on news out of China in order for Wall st. to trust it from the buy side and any negative news can induce a sharp selloff as evidenced by how REE’s were generally down across the board. I expect to see some more weakness and consolidation in this sector until we receive some more bullish news – as that’s what investors need in this market to become bullish.

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Comments (2)
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  • Its the economy (of HREE) stupid:

     

    Alaska Governor, Sean Parnell, February22, 2011 Letter to President Obama gov.alaska.gov/parnell...
    U.S. Senator’s and Representative, January 28, 2011 Letter to Secretary of Defense, Mr. Gates www.politico.com/stati...
    HOUSE RESOLUTION NO.16, IN THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF ALASKA, TWENTY-SIXTH LEGISLATURE - SECOND SESSION (ref expedite permitting of Bokan) www.legis.state.ak.us/...

     

    Ucore Completes Washington Meetings & Sets Out Strategy for Heavy REE Production in U.S. — Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSX VENTURE: UCU)(OTCQX: UURAF) ("Ucore" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has completed a series of meetings with lawmakers in Washington, DC. to discuss the initiatives required to recreate a complete domestic supply chain for the U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing industry.
    Ucore representatives conferred with a number of congressional leaders and Washington-based officials of the State of Alaska. The parties discussed the need for near term initiatives to provide a secure domestic source for strategically sensitive metals such as Dysprosium and Terbium. The metals, classified as Heavy Rare Earth Elements, and their associated alloys and magnetic end products, have been noted as being critically important to U.S. military applications, as well as the American high technology and clean energy sectors.
    In the meetings, Ucore set out a rapid two-pronged approach to Heavy Rare Earth development in the U.S.:
    1. A Mining Enterprise targeting a Dysprosium-rich, Heavy Rare Earth concentrate sourced from a fully permittable and near-term capable site at Bokan Mountain in southeastern Alaska.
    2. A Metallurgical Refining Complex to recapture the value-added segment of the rare earth processing chain within U.S. borders, and to service a secure and wholly contained domestic magnet-making industry, at a location pending finalization.
    "We're impressed with the pro-active stance of leaders in Washington, DC to recapture an industry in which the U.S. was the de facto world leader not very long ago," said Jim McKenzie, President and CEO of Ucore. "Ucore has the stated goal of becoming the first enterprise to commercially produce Dysprosium in the form of a high purity metal for magnet alloys entirely on U.S. soil, and to do so at minimal expenditure of time and financial outlay. We believe that Bokan is the only realistic location to achieve this goal in the near term, and is increasingly acknowledged as such by key federal policymakers."
    Ucore Rare Metals Joins United States Magnet Materials Association
    HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA--(Marketwire - March 4, 2011) - Ucore Rare Metals Inc. (TSX VENTURE:UCU)(OTCQX:UUR... ("Ucore" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has joined the United States Magnet Materials Association ("USMMA"), a US trade association representing domestic high performance magnet producers and suppliers. The USMMA was founded in 2006 by three magnet manufacturers and has since expanded to eight members with a focus on supporting the reintroduction of a competitive rare earth supply chain in the United States. "We are pleased to join the USMMA in their efforts to reintroduce a competitive rare earth supply chain into the US," said Ucore President & CEO, Jim McKenzie. "The security of supply of these crucial materials is vital to the Country's ability to compete in a number of sectors and the USMMA has been instrumental in raising awareness of the potential shortage of these crucial materials. We look forward to working with the other members on this important issue."
    9 Mar 2011, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Awesome news - did you hear MCP's earnings report? Crushed estimates, sales, and revenues expectations.
    9 Mar 2011, 05:19 PM Reply Like
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