Spamwich's  Instablog

Send Message
Specialty: Technical Analysis My early years were not so rich, I had a poor family, at age 12 I landed my first job as dishwasher for $6/hr, by 14 years old my mother suggested to cut grass around our town for extra money, so with what little money I had, I put into some fliers and a lawnmower.... More
  • Does Fed Manipulation Void TA?  0 comments
    Feb 24, 2014 5:43 PM | about stocks: SPY

    If you believe in, and practice TA, then I have nothing to convince you of, even after the Fed has stepped in. You should have results that prove the TA is relatively simple, yet a very powerful tool when making trade decisions in the market. I have a few before and after shots of charts that prove TA works, and the TA that has failed me has been mostly caused by my own error.

    One person recently said to me " It must be nice being able to predict the future" , I replied, "Surely the leaves of deciduous trees will turn color and fall in October"...

    Point being, you can predict the future with what is taken for granted as common knowledge.

    TA can be very simple, or very complicated, depending on your methods and goals. For example, since 1930 the S&P has gained 3 years to every 1 year of loss, despite what you think you know about the fundamentals, these are the facts that will give you a return 75% of the time.

    This being said, I'm not saying that there is no cause and effect of the Fed, but to this date, the ratio of monthly gains to losses matches the yearly, 3:1 . The market historically has continued to gain without federal stimulus, and regardless if " everyone" is bullish or bearish.

    Now to the big picture, if you go onto a weekly chart of the S&P you should see (after zooming out) to what I refer to as a " Ascending Channel", you will notice that 1730 was struck just recently, the bottom of the channel held, so one could only view this as bullish. I had called a reversal from 1750-1730, and then from there made 2 weeks of accurate target coming to fruition. If at that time, the channel broke, then I would have had no choice but to assume there was a much more bearish pattern in play, but this did not happen so now I'm looking for S&P to reach 2000 by July.

    My intention is not to come off as some sort of TA wizard, or prophet, my journey into the market only started a couple of years ago...I realize that every technician has their strength and weakness, and I seek others knowledge with proven success as I will show in my before and after pictures... (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)Lower TL holds

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: SPY
Back To Spamwich's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.