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Spamwich
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Specialty: Technical Analysis Name: Michael Payne, CEO of No Payne Roofing Inc. Objective: To share results of technical indications Experience: Relentless market participation since November 2011
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No Payne Roofing Inc
  • $SLV Bigger Picture Outlook 14 comments
    Jul 13, 2014 1:24 PM

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  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Spamwich I have never traded Silver, do you think Silver will be dropping one more time before a possible August -Sept run up?
    Is Silver like Gold is now, with a possible huge drop happening soon if it doesn't start moving up quite soon?
    Which Silver ETF gives the best returns, and also which one is the safest to play?
    22 Jul, 03:04 AM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hey GD ! At this time I'm looking at silver as range bound between those two horizontal red lines. So yes I think we test 20.20-19.80 before another run up, however if this price range breaks down then I would have to look towards the $18.50-18.75 range which would be an attractive long opportunity for at least a few dollars.

     

    I'm not exactly sure what your risk appetite you have, and what kind of $$$ you have on the table. You can get into leveraged ETF's like USLV etc, but I would personally recommend options on SLV , you can get some serious bang for your buck if executed properly. For anyone who wants to purchase physical silver at $18.50ish it would be wise to insure the position with put options on SLV, if we get a lower low then we just may be on the road to $9/ounce believe it or not. I'm taking a more of a neutral position as the technical are still not giving any solid buy/sell signals, but the trend will be evident soon and I don't think that its something we need to jump into before it happens...
    22 Jul, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Hi Spamwich I have a moderate risk appetite
    I have traded some 3 X Bulls and Inverse of the Gold Miners ETFs
    I have never traded Options, or Calls and Puts
    I may trade them after I get some more experience trading in PMs. I agree that we are not getting any solid buy/sell signals lately, which makes it risky to buy now.
    I seems that Silver and silver ETFs have not had the bigger swings that the Golde ETFs have had, correct me if I am wrong or I am looking at the wrong ones.
    BTW Another forum contributor just posted after the market close that weds we shall see: "Tomorrow will provide answers regarding the remaining whipsaw" So maybe Silver will see action as well
    22 Jul, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I neglect to watch gold very much, but it would appear that you are correct. Gold appears to be targeting 1230-1200 pretty soon here, silver has some sort of wedge/pennant formation that is about to break down in the not so distant future, wont' be so bold as to say it happens today. I'm tempted to buy some 6 month $22 calls if silver does test upper support ($19.80-$20.20 lower support would be $18.70-$19.00)
    23 Jul, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
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    Gold just dropped to $1296 tonight, down $8
    Now when dos it bounce back up and how far down does it go first. Silver dropped some to.
    23 Jul, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » http://seekingalpha.co... , here's a look at the price structure for gold...
    24 Jul, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Thanks Spamwich, it looks like GOLD has more room to drop
    How does your Silver ETF look, will it go lower -is it following Gold down?
    What will give the biggest bang for your buck over the next month or two? a silver or a gold ETF, and which one would you pick that is a none leveraged one, and also a leveraged one?
    24 Jul, 03:27 AM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Leverage would be more appropriate if you want to risk less capital for bigger returns. That way you don't have to put 10 k on the table to make X amount of $$, you can put much less on for the same returns, but that's just me, however I do recall those leveraged ETF's having some sort of decay similar to options, but I'm sure you are aware of that...

     

    Gold appears to be less attractive right now simply because its a narrowing wedge, while silver has just been range bound, but silver is my primary choice of trade always... For now I'm just watching the 9 day MA on the monthly chart , and looking for a breaking or testing of those red lines...
    24 Jul, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    SIL looks more bullish than SLV as per Ichimoku Cloud
    On the daily Japanese candlesticks, SLV got a buy signal Thursday at $19.50
    On the weekly Japanese candlesticks SLV got at sell at $20.64
    The CMF (20) and ADX is negative.
    The Parobolic Sar , TMI (25, 13, 7) and Wm$ (R14)
    In summary on 14 July these three indicators showed it was time to sell SLV, the last buy signal was on 11 July.
    It doesn't look like a buy yet.
    http://bit.ly/duZ1er

     

    Why is silver your choice of trade, I am a new trader of GOLD ETFs and it seems there is wide swings in Gold ETFs so more money to make. Please advise what I am missing about Silver, Thanks Spamwich
    27 Jul, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Unfortunately that chart you sent me is not showing through, just shows me the DOW. As for silver, I'm more or less just sticking to what I know. I like a combination of SLV and SLV options, silver only has to go to $40 from here to double, I personally do not want to set my expectations above ATH, so you can realistically double your money in silver , whereas you will have a harder time getting 100% in gold.. I was personally more bullish at support on June 1st when I wrote http://bit.ly/1mYpYfM ... You also commented on that instablog as well...
    28 Jul, 11:23 PM Reply Like
  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Spamwich go to that website and enter the Symbol of the stock you want it to chart, like SLV, then hit UPDATE, then go to bottom left and chose GALLERY VIEW , it gives a very nice summary of the main TA signs.
    It is worth doing it on any stock you are thinking of buying.
    You can customize the TA indicators you want to try and then hit update.
    Over the next one or two days look for a possible $40 jump in Gold to $1350
    29 Jul, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Oh yes, I'm familiar with that website, I figured you were trying to give me a link with the specifics already set up. I'll certainly look into it :) Right now I have resistance at 1360 and support at 1250
    29 Jul, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • Gold Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (202) | Send Message
     
    Spamwich, I have a question maybe you can answer.
    Would you have any idea what effect the Wednesday 2 pm EDT tomorrow FOMC news release might have on gold?
    Example: Gold drops 10 then start climbing back up?

     

    Do you figure Gold goes down a bid more before it goes up to $1360 area, or will it go the other way... Up first then down to $1250. Thanks
    30 Jul, 02:41 AM Reply Like
  • Spamwich
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As of now it appears that the downtrend is still in tact, so 1250-1260 before a reversal, if the pattern plays out to its full potential the price will narrow out from there before making a new structure. As of now I'm just watching for those lines to break. Right I'm not getting any long term indications suggesting gold gets a lower low... I don't really follow the FOMC, but this may be the catalyst to break the structure. The monthly chart has a bull cross pending on the MACD, I'm keeping a close eye on this because I do believe a trend change is going to happen before we get a lower low...
    30 Jul, 08:51 AM Reply Like
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