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"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" Warren Buffett I look and sift the world for such misplaced bets. When I occasionally find one, I first exploit it for profit. Then, I write about it for anyone else interested in such ideas. Twitter: @unemon1 Scribd:... More
  • My Thoughts On Organovo, Inc. (NYSE: ONVO) – Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) Partnership. 34 comments
    Dec 17, 2013 1:39 PM | about stocks: ONVO, DDD, PFE

    What if, even before starting to generate any kind of substantial revenue, ONVO managed to lose a first potential client?

    /hey … don't trust me … I'm probably wrong … as always/

    See here how much I think ONVO coule be worth.

    Recently, Richard Pearson, a seasoned Seeking Alpha contributor, released a very detailed report on Organovo (November 19, 2013 - Link).

    While on the one hand, I do agree with the entirety of the thoughts presented in Pearson's article, on the other hand, I do also believe that the Announced "Collaborative - Agreements" are worth a closer look.

    As of February 08, 2012 … two collaborative research agreements were in effect.

    "We have collaborative research agreements with Pfizer and Unither, and will seek to enter into additional collaborations." (page. 25 - Form 8-K/A - Data of Report - February 8, 2012 - Link)

    A closer Look at the Pfizer collaborative agreement and subsequent developments

    "In December 2010, we entered into a collaborative research agreement with Pfizer to develop tissue based drug discovery assays in two therapeutic areas utilizing our NovoGen MMX Bioprinter™ technology. To date, Pfizer has paid us all amounts due under the agreement and we anticipate completing the research plan by March 2012. We anticipate that the agreement will be extended past March 2012; although we can give no assurance that it will in fact be so extended."

    (page. 25 - Form 8-K/A - Data of Report - February 8, 2012 - Link)

    Moreover, in its ANNUAL REPORT for the FISCAL YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2012, ONVO reported:

    "We disclosed in 2012 that we had delivered constructs to Pfizer for internal evaluation as partial completion of the collaboration agreement; we additionally have delivered a study report to complete the scope of work in the original collaboration agreement. Constructs delivered by Organovo are currently being evaluated in the collaborator's laboratory, and we anticipate that an additional agreement or agreements will be arrived at to utilize Organovo tissues in its future research efforts, although we can give no assurance that future agreements will be arrived at."

    (page. 7 - Form 10-K - Data of Report - Link)

    I do think that any potential shareholder of ONVO deserves a more exhaustive answer about whether or not the collaborative research agreement with Pfizer has been extended as well as about the state of the negotiations. Unfortunately, I were not able to locate any definitive answers to such a question (please, if you have been able to, do not hesitate to send me a message).

    So … I started looking for potential answers…

    … and I discovered that in October/November 2012, Pfizer announced a collaboration agreement with Cyprotex.

    "In 2012, we (Cyprotex) also announced a collaborative research programme with Pfizer in the area of predictive toxicology which is progressing well. " (Link)

    It is interesting to note that: "Cyprotex and InSphero are jointly offering a new hepatotoxicity screening service using InSphero's 3D InSight™ liver mode". (September 20, 2012 - Link)

    In addition, recently "Pfizer and Roche release positive study results with InSphero" (August 16, 2012 - Link)

    "Recently, the leading US pharma company Pfizer /A client of Insphero AG/ could show that the InSphero 3D-InSight liver tissues, which contain all important cell types of the human liver, delivered unmatched results in studies investigating the effects of liver toxic substances. These positive results were presented at the world's most renowned toxicology congress (Annual SOT Meeting, San Antonio)." (August 16, 2012 - Link)

    To my knowledge, neither Pfizer nor Organovo has released any results about the research project carried on within their Collaborative Agreement.

    So, all we know is that …:

    1. … Organovo delivered constructs to Pfizer in 2012
    2. … We in over a year we have not hear about any new development with respect to this Partnership. The official word at ONVO is … "we are in negotiations"
    3. In August 2013, Pfizer showed that "InSphero 3D-InSight liver tissues, which contain all important cell types of the human liver, delivered unmatched results" (August 16, 2012 - Link)
    4. The Pfizer was not to be found in any of the ONVO's last presentations' slides, neither the CEO mentioned it during the formal presentation (Link to the Presentation)

    SORRY IF I AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE STATUS OF THE NEGOTIATIONS. BUT IT SEEMS TO ME … PFIZER COULD HAVE ALREADY MOVED ON. (As a potential long investor, I would do the same!)

    To see "My view on … how much Organovo (NYSEMKT:ONVO) is really worth?" … please go here.

    Disclosure: I am short ONVO.

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Comments (34)
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  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    I also looked into this and found that Pfizer's annual R&D budget is around $7B. $1M invested in ONVO is a mere flyspeck to them. If there were something compelling about ONVO's liver assays wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that Pfizer would not only be putting more money into it but that their many Big Pharma competitors - each with their own multi-Billion R&D budgets who aren't about to let their competitors get a leg up on them - would also be beating a path to ONVO's door??

     

    Also we have seen ONVO's revenues diminish from roughly $1M a year in 2011 and 2012 to . . . $129K in the first half of 2013 with the second quarter checking in at a mere $25,000. A reasonable expectation is that as a company draws closer to possible commercialization of their primary product in 2015 that their collaborative revenues would be increasing, not decreasing??

     

    Undoubtedly these are among the reasons the smart money (institutions) are staying far away.
    17 Dec 2013, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » sure ... Onvo went up for 2 reasons:

     

    1. the 3d industry bubble we witnesses in 2013

     

    2. A co-ordinated pumping activity of the media such as MotleyFool and some SA Contributors

     

    at one point .. I could not even keep track of all the pseudo-atricles released on these website. Them all had 1 thing in common: "ONVO is great! ... it's gonna be the MSFT of 2020!"...

     

    I wish good luck to all reatil investors that are still long into this Company. And to all those that bought at $3 and sold at $10+ ... well ... CONGRATS!
    17 Dec 2013, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    I think Motley Fool belatedly must have developed some sense of shame since they are no longer running five promotional articles about ONVO a week!

     

    Here's what I posted previously on the topic-

     

    'Organovo At The Mercy Of The Media [View article]
    Wow thanks for finding that censored, err pulled, Motley Fool article. How a newsletter that prides itself on teaching rational prudent investing to the masses could allow itself to become a mouthpiece for contributing writers, with long positions and a clear agenda to rope the dopes in, is beyond me.

     

    I went back and counted and starting a week ago Tuesday there was a positive article that day, then again on Weds, Thurs, Sat and Sunday. Five articles in one week extolling ONVO's supposed 3D excellence. Not one made any attempt at correlating the valuation of the company to the possible this-decade revenue streams. They just talked about 'revolutionary', 'disruptive', yada yada, all the current catchwords to excite a gullible public.

     

    Not even after this campaign had succeeded in driving the price from 9.00 last Tues to a 12.50 close by Friday (after an earlier flirt with 13.50) did they question the valuation of ONE BILLION DOLLARS. Nope they published two more articles over the weekend to prime the retail mugs for Monday.

     

    They're a sad joke for what they've foisted on their followers. Kudos to SA for allowing the printing both sides of the story.'

     

    Another factor to consider regarding the share price is that the entire sharebase - over 100 million shares!! - turned over in just the six days that ONVO was trading above 10.00 in November. Since everyone who bought and held shares during that time is now a loser, and since this year has been remarkably generous to the retail mugs who go for these momentum names, it stands to reason that, a) they have lots of unrelated gains for the year, and b) will be looking to take offsetting tax losses (to the extent they're aware of this) to reduce their 2013 tax bill.

     

    Ergo, look for a lot of late season tax selling in names like ONVO.
    17 Dec 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Unemon, sorry but I have to say that this instanblog is very confusing and maybe you paste some wrong quotes.
    From one side you seems trying to say that Pfizer moved from ONVO to Insphero, but you conclude with the following:

     

    "3. In August 2013, Pfizer showed that "InSphero 3D-InSight liver tissues, which contain all important cell types of the human liver, delivered unmatched results" (August 16, 2012 - Link)
    "
    The quote right says that Insphero 3d-Insight liver tissues has delivered UNMATCHED results, which means... FAILURE, UNUSABLE for drug discoveries!!

     

    Maybe is the reason why in their web site Inshero website annunces that in their current development pipeline, they have: mouse, dogs and mini-pigs tissues!!

     

    Inshero, seems aiming to the veterinarian sector...
    18 Dec 2013, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    Leon, this is just silly (or desperate). I provide you here with a dictionary definition of 'unmatched'-

     

    'un·matched
    ˌənˈmaCHt/Submit
    adjective
    1. not matched or equaled.

     

    "he has a talent unmatched by any other politician"

     

    synonyms: unequaled, unrivaled, unparalleled, unsurpassed, peerless, matchless, without equal, nonpareil, without parallel, incomparable, inimitable, superlative, second to none, in a class of its own

     

    ***********

     

    If that is not enough for you then there's always that thing called 'context'. Look at the entire paragraph to deduce its meaning (my caps)-

     

    'Recently, the leading US pharma company Pfizer could show that the InSphero 3D-InSight liver tissues, which contain all important cell types of the human liver, delivered UNMATCHED results in studies investigating the effects of liver toxic substances. These POSITIVE results were presented at the world’s most renowned toxicology congress (Annual SOT Meeting, San Antonio).

     

    Further POSITIVE results were presented by Roche at the annual congress of the American Association of Cancer Research in Washington DC.'

     

    Do you still question whether the results that Insphero's publicizing are . . . negative?!?

     

    Have you even asked yourself why a company would want to publicize something that failed??

     

    Good luck with your trading but frankly I'd be a bit concerned.
    18 Dec 2013, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You are 100% ... correct!
    18 Dec 2013, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    How do you know that is the correct interpretation?
    To me it sounds that they have tested the Inspher Human trail and the results were not equal (unmatched), which means, un-realiable for drug discovery. It could explain why Insphero remains maninly focus on developing animal tissues assay further, such as: dogs, mouse and mini-pigs!

     

    It could help if UNEMON would paste the link from where he is taking the quote that Pfizer states such of spectacular results from Insphero human assay..

     

    The link pasted by UNEMON is the following:
    http://bit.ly/1kVrgYc

     

    and it doesn't show any statement from Pfizer but only from Insphero CEO. The article also is not coming from a scientific source but from Red Alpine Capital which has nothing to do with science, here is the link who they are:

     

    http://bit.ly/18Tj45e

     

    I'm from Europe and I would love Insphero to be a company comperable with ONVO, but unfortunately it just sell cells trails with bigger focus in animal cells. They do not ''bio-print'' functional tissues.
    19 Dec 2013, 05:11 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    BTW, I just noticed that all links you have published are taken from Red alpine Capital site.... what of a source!!

     

    I just let you know that Red Alpine Capital promotes Insphero in their start-ups potfolio, you can verify yourself at the link below:

     

    http://bit.ly/18AyQaf

     

    I warn anyone to make their own DD and do not belive whatever they could read by unknow writes who have no traceable scientific or business backgrounds.
    19 Dec 2013, 06:36 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Good luck with your ONVO Investment! ... you need plenty of luck if you are really long. ONVO is going to be trading at 2$-3$ in the coming years. Tha'ts where it belongs

     

    what is your secientifc of business background?
    19 Dec 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    UNEMON, only time would tell us who is right and who is wrong, but I've captured my own information around ONVO and I have developed my own idea where ONVO could be traded in the next quarters and 3 years time.

     

    You have not idea how much I would love to tell you what my business/scientific background is, but it would be pointless to disclose it here since in SA any user can claim to be whatever they like. In fact, by policy SA doesn't fact check anything users post.

     

    All I can tell you is that I'm a ''long'' investors.
    19 Dec 2013, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    I'm curious about your educational background. How can you not know what 'unmatched' means and why can't you use a dictionary?
    19 Dec 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Muk, english is not my native language, but you should be more concern about the educational level of the person who have quoted that sentence as if it was stated by Pfizer.

     

    Let's say that I have enough background to figure out that Pfizer could have made that statement only with a negative interpretation.

     

    Only later I follow up the link and find out it was not a quote from Pfizer but from Red Alpine Capital who is promoting Inspher on their portfolio....
    19 Dec 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    If English isn't your native language then why are you trying to play a game with semantics least of all without bothering to check a dictionary first? Your comments rarely address the topic at hand but instead try to kick up a little dust over tangential points presumably as a way to mis-direct attention.

     

    What is undeniable is that Pfizer and Insphero are in bed together. I realize that like a wife being shown photos of her husband with another woman it's hard to accept at first but believe me denial is not a great strategy when dealing with markets. Your believing them doesn't translate into others believing them.
    19 Dec 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well... Well ... Well ... what do you think about this:

     

    "3D BIOPRINTERS CURRENTLY IN DEVELOPMENT

     

    Currently there are three commercial 3D bio-printers in development: (1) NovoGen MMX by Organovo, (2) an unnamed printer developed by Wake Forest University, and the newest one, (3) 4SPIN developed by Contipro Biotech. All three of these printers follow the same basic concept but there are aspects of each that differ and provide competitive benefits.
    NovoGen MMX is the furthest along in development, but is only capable of developing simple tissues and muscle patches [9], the printer being developed at Wake Forest University has demonstrated the capacity to print miniature versions of a kidney, but is far from ready for commercial application. Presently, the 4SPIN device shows the most promise for clinical testing and commercial application in the near future. In contrast with the synthetic biopolymers used by both the NovoGen MMX and the Wake Forest printer, 4SPIN utilizes a unique printing technique allowing for the use of more complex and essential organic compounds in the creation of extracellular matrices."

     

    Of course, I guess you would also be concerned about the educationl levl of the authord and the Jury! ... right?
    19 Dec 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    What a find Unemon(!) I was able to source it but only with the info contained in the blurb . . .

     

    Someone should contact Contipro and tell them to reverse-merger quick into a US listing before the ONVO balloon completely deflates. Why let Keith have all the fun? And if they need some funding I need some warrants ;-)
    19 Dec 2013, 10:34 PM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Again, I have interpreted it to be (un-equal) as it was the only statement I was expecting made by Pfizer with regards Insphero tissues results.

     

    Only later I follow the link to stunningly discover that the quote was not by Pfizer but from Red Alpine Capital...

     

    I don't think Pfizer and Insphero go to bed together or at least with regards the supply of bio-printed functional human tissues since Insphero doesn't sell this product.
    20 Dec 2013, 04:15 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    You should paste some articles where you could also compare the current status from their respective researches.

     

    It is good you made finally clear that Insphero has nothing to do with 3d Bioprinters :-)
    20 Dec 2013, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » .. I'm done wasting my time replying to someone not even willing to discuss! ... bb
    20 Dec 2013, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    In April 2013 Insphero was profiled in the most prestigious science magazine; Nature.

     

    I was able to find a link to the otherwise subscription only article-

     

    http://bit.ly/1i1CRYo

     

    They mention a number of companies with breakthroughs toward developing more predictive in vitro cultures but Organovo is nowhere to be found!
    18 Dec 2013, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Mate... this link is not from science nature magazine... come on.. do you really think people are so stupid?
    19 Dec 2013, 06:38 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    No but I think that any investor who can't discern where a magazine link comes from might have some intellectual deficiencies.

     

    Try looking at the footers on pages 3, 4 and 5-

     

    'Nature April 11 A Better Brew'

     

    Then before accusing me of thinking other people are stupid do a simple google search and come up with the original link which, leon, you can pay to read if you prefer but I brought you a free one-

     

    http://bit.ly/18AXnMz

     

    Isn't it interesting that the most prestigious scientific review magazine in the world left ONVO off of their article discussing the best improvements in in vitro culture mediums?

     

    And what think you of the nonstop INSIDER SELLING?
    19 Dec 2013, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Well, I think some of them are ... but that's not the point! You should be happy ... You can buy plenty of ONVO's shares ... at 8.20 if you want! ...
    19 Dec 2013, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    UNEMON, your advice is not yet applicable for my current position in ONVO, but I'm sure there are some other longs who are quite happy to take the chance to weight their own position taking the advantage of the lower price.
    19 Dec 2013, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    I see Muk, thanks for posting the original link as I didn't even want to waste time to read a potentially counterfeit document.

     

    Now I can see that the title is ''Cell culture: A better brew''

     

    Cell Culture is what Inshero does, it has nothing to do with ONVO.
    That is the difference you still struggle (or don't want) to understand.

     

    Cell culture is nothing new, 3d bio-print cell to form a functional human tissue, yes.. that's new and unique by ONVO.
    19 Dec 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    and of course, I'm fine with the insider selling as I told you many other times in previous posts.

     

    I don't see anything suspicius or uncommon.
    As a a shareholder I'm happy the executives are mainly paid and rewarded in shares in accordance with a selling plan.

     

    At the end of the day, I believe that my position on insider selling is more reliable than yours since you claim not to have any position in ONVO.
    19 Dec 2013, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    Leon, you make stuff up. Where did I say I have no position in ONVO and what possible relevance does it have to insider selling?

     

    Also I'm curious as to why cell culture has nothing to do with ONVO? You think ONVO's making liver assays as little lab hor d'oeuvres, 96 snacks to a tray?
    19 Dec 2013, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » well, from what you just wrote ... :

     

    "Cell Culture is what Inshero does, it has nothing to do with ONVO.
    That is the difference you still struggle (or don't want) to understand."

     

    ... it became evident that you do not even know what ONVO and Insphero actually do! You might want to go on the companies' websites and have a look at some of their presentations. This might help you better understand the industry both companies are working in.

     

    I wish you ... good luck!
    19 Dec 2013, 11:20 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    Think what you want, but cell culture is an other thing and I understand now why you struggle to understand ONVO potentials. :-)
    20 Dec 2013, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    I'm curious, if you don't know the difference between Cell Culture and what ONVO has developed, how the henk you can state that Insphero is an ONVO competitor?

     

    Cell culture:
    I could not better explain you than Wikipedia does, below you find the link. They just grow cell in a trail. They are far from reacting a an alive human tissues does and by doing cell culture you can't develop more than a very thin layer of cells, nothing to do with an alive thick tissue with vessels etc... Animal cell culture, which is the core business of Insphero, is a common laboratory technique from the mid-1900s:

     

    http://bit.ly/1dqEVUj

     

    3d Bioprintg human tissues:
    Here is what ONVO does, again, I could not better explain than they do it in their web site:

     

    http://bit.ly/1dqEVUk
    20 Dec 2013, 04:58 AM Reply Like
  • leonct74
    , contributor
    Comments (106) | Send Message
     
    In few words, to grow a thin layer of human cell (cell culture) it is not the same thing as to put (print) human cells together to form a functional and alive structure which replicate the human tissues.

     

    The potential of ONVO is to take over and monopolize the drug discovery market from Insphero like companies and beside that they could have an infinitive range of potential applications which Insphero like companies cannot cover, such as surgically implanted tissues and hopefully one day in the future, entire organs too.
    20 Dec 2013, 05:42 AM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    The problem with your line of reasoning is that ONVO isn't selling the bioprinter, they hope to be able to sell the product- liver assays.

     

    Pharmas buying the assays don't care how they were made - they could have been made on Pluto with a bioplismic finabulator for all they care - just whether they work better. At this point Insphero's 3D liver version has been adopted by Pfizer and Roche plus they have deals with all Top Ten Pharmas.

     

    ONVO's got nothing but a machine.
    20 Dec 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (227) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » well .. 50% of the news about ORGANOVA ... are produced by the Company itself, 49% is produced by Motley Fool .. with its 5/week pumping pieces ... and only approx. 1% is produced by third independent parties.

     

    Welcome to the ONVO world ...
    18 Dec 2013, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mukticat
    , contributor
    Comments (1076) | Send Message
     
    Sure but it struck me as kind of bizarre that a publication like MF which prides itself on a level-headed bottoms-up approach to investing would allow themselves to become a mouthpiece for a total pumpjob. I have to assume it's because they're renting out space to the highest bidder.

     

    I hardly pay attention to them so maybe this has been going on for a long time with other stocks too and I just never noticed.
    19 Dec 2013, 12:26 AM Reply Like
  • Well 67
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Onvo,IOENCT is the Winner! Happy Holidays Everyone
    20 Dec 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
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