UNEMON1's  Instablog

Send Message
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" Warren Buffett I look and sift the world for such misplaced bets. When I occasionally find one, I first exploit it for profit. Then, I write about it for anyone else interested in such ideas. Twitter: @unemon1 Scribd:... More
  • Giving National Bank Of Greece (NBG) Another Chance. 1 comment
    Dec 20, 2013 3:31 PM | about stocks: GY

    The Chart:

    Up on high Volume … down on low Volume … = … Accumulations & Consolidation.

    The only problem I see is the Vol/Price divergence in the Chart. Price new Highs not confirmed by Volume new Highs.

    The Options:

    Over the past three months, Call open interest went from 306,943 to 938,079 (+205%)

    Over the past three months, Call open interest went from 35,200 to 78,484 (+122%)

    Call Open Interest to Put Open Interest = 11.95

    Many Bullish bets (worth USD m) have been placed … and most of them will be profitable if NBG price is above 8.50 by January 2015.

    For example, here Is a trade I happened to see on October 20/21 (don't recall exactly).

    Long 20,000 $7 calls at a price of 0.59 ... -$1.180m
    Short 10,000 $5 calls at a price of 1.53 ... +$1.530m

    total credit ... $0.35m

    If NBG is below $5 by Jan2015 ... you will "gain" $0.350m

    If NBG is above 7$ you will gain $0.350, + $1m for every $1 the price is higher than $8.65

    Maximum loss = $1.65m ... if price at expiration i exactly $7

    BE barriers $5 to the downside, and $8.65 to the upside

    Our trader thinks that the price will be either higher than $8.65 ... or lower than $5 by January 2015. The fact that he bought a double quantity of Calls ... signals he has a bullish view on NBG!

    That's a nice trade! ... Could be very profitable! If NBG is at $14 by 2015 ... this guy would pocket in ... about $5.35m ... risking $1.65m

    Stocks: GY
Back To UNEMON1's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (1)
Track new comments
    , contributor
    Comments (421) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » The trendline ... appears to be acting as a level of support. PPS bounced back to 5.69. What's next? ... 6.30?
    27 Dec 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • $PHMD: A True Turnaround Story? Regaining Access To The Japan Market? http://seekingalpha.com/p/2aouk
    Mar 26, 2015
  • $DK Real question GeoInvesting should ask is: "why had DELEK Hungary liquidated 32.359m DK shares over the past 2.5 years?"
    Mar 5, 2015
  • $ATHX up to 205m USD in milestone payments + 2digit royailty for just the JP market on 1 indication. $ATHX currently at 200m mcap.
    Mar 2, 2015
More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.