Finally analysts (actually 1) have started (Feb 2014) to quantify their Expectation about Organovo future revenue! Within the next 9-11 month we should finally be able to determine whether or not the Expectations surrounding ONVO are legit! No more Excuses.
As soon as investors (especially Retail Investors) start to realize ONVO will not be able to meet investors'/analysts' expectations ... the bubble will start to pop.
I do expect this scenario to materialize no later than 2014Q2 results' release (November 2014) … with escalating selling activity once 2014Q3 10Q is filed (Beginning of February 2015).
Organovo is expected to generate $15.7m in revenue for FY2014 (Ending March 31, 2015) and $33.4m in FY2015 (Ending March 31, 2016)
Here a closer Overview:
ONVO Investors should really be concerned with analyst estimate for FY2015 Revenue Growth of only 112%. You would expect such a promising company to have a higher revenue growth rate at the beginning of its revenue generating era… especially when the $mm amount is in the low 10s of $mm … and the technology is so "promising".
The FY2015 revenue forecast … can help us … estimate in which Q of 2014 … we should start to see some significant revenue.
If we assume a Q over Q Revenue Growth of 15% during FY2015 … if follows that 2015Q1 revenue should be approx. $6.7m.
It is highly unlikely that any of the 2014Qs will show a revenue higher than the 2015Q1 figure (given the ramping up in Revenue) … In the best Case scenario therefore this is what we could expect for FY2014 …
Or … more realistically… assuming a 15% growth rate starting after 2014Q2:
Soon we will have the verdict.
A read below 3$m for 2014Q2 revenue would be a huge red flag IMO …
… while a read below $8m for 2014Q2&3 total revenue will definitely put an end to the …. Wannabe ONVO billionaire dreams!
Were ONVO TO meet analysts' expectations?! … I would not buy … since at these prices it would still be overvalued. In that case … however … I do think … the bubble could persist for some additional time.
Disclosure: I am short ONVO.