UNEMON1's  Instablog

Send Message
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" Warren Buffett I look and sift the world for such misplaced bets. When I occasionally find one, I first exploit it for profit. Then, I write about it for anyone else interested in such ideas. Twitter: @unemon1 Scribd:... More
  • SP500 Index, A Quick Overview At Recent History Valuations. 0 comments
    Apr 26, 2014 2:54 PM | about stocks: SPXL

    Approximately Fair Valued … now economic growth is needed to boost prices. Time to rethink allocation towards more economic-growth sensitive sectors (bb momentum).

    Multiples Overview at Calendar Year End:

    Current SPX500 Index prices implied by historical Multiples.

    For Example, by taking the Price/Earnings Multiple observed at the end of CY1990, today the SPX500 Index should be trading at 1,666.67 points.

    Where Current SPX Price is 1,863 and the Average Historical Implied SPX Price is 1930.88 (representing a 3.64% upside Potential).

    Given Current Street Forecasts for CY2014 and CY2015, if traded at "historical average Multiples" the SPX is expected to trade at 1944.79 at the end of CY2014 (4.40% upside) and at 2115.20 at the end of CY 2015 (15.68% upside).

    Currently SPX does seem to be "Fair Valued" (not overvalued but also not undervalued). As long as the Economic recovery remains intact, buy the DIP seems the less dangerous strategy to follow.

    When I first performed this kind of comparison back in 2011 the situation looked a lot better from a wanna-be-long perspective:

    Where Current SPX Price was at 1,259 and the Average Historical Implied SPX Price was 1573.32 (representing a 24.96% upside Potential).

    Stocks: SPXL
Back To UNEMON1's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


  • $PHMD: A True Turnaround Story? Regaining Access To The Japan Market? http://seekingalpha.com/p/2aouk
    Mar 26, 2015
  • $DK Real question GeoInvesting should ask is: "why had DELEK Hungary liquidated 32.359m DK shares over the past 2.5 years?"
    Mar 5, 2015
  • $ATHX up to 205m USD in milestone payments + 2digit royailty for just the JP market on 1 indication. $ATHX currently at 200m mcap.
    Mar 2, 2015
More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.