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"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" Warren Buffett I look and sift the world for such misplaced bets. When I occasionally find one, I first exploit it for profit. Then, I write about it for anyone else interested in such ideas. Twitter: @unemon1 Scribd:... More
  • Horizon Pharma Inc., An Overvalued And Over-Hyped Company Performing A Questionable Acquisition To Mask Deteriorating Organic Revenue Growth.  6 comments
    Jul 23, 2014 12:01 PM | about stocks: HZNP

    These notes are about Horizon Pharma Inc. (NasdaqGS: HZNP) currently trading at $14.42

    See you in the sub $10 LEVEL ...

    PART 1: THE QUESTIONABLE VIDARA ACQUISITION (stay tuned for PART II)

    Why would you value $704m something (VIDATE/Actimmune) that 2 years ago had been sold for $55.0 million in cash, plus certain (minimal) conditional royalty payments ?

    At closing of the VIDARA Acquisition there will be approximately be 122 million fully-dilute shares. At current HZNP ($14.30) shares prices this implies a $1,744.6m valuation for the Company's Equity. This transaction will also add approximately $200m ++ in debt to the already present $112.7m net convertible debt and $313.4m Derivative liabilities HZNP had on its Balance sheet as of March 31, 2014.

    Do you really think HZNP real value is that high?

    I DO NOT THINK SO ... & ... THIS IS WHY I DECIDED TO SHARE MY PERSONAL NOTES WITH YOU in the coming months ...

    unemon.com/ResearchEasy/20140723_HZNP_Pa...

    Disclosure: The author is short HZNP.

    Stocks: HZNP
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Comments (6)
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  • devill1183
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    and why don't you share with us if you are short or long the stock. that might affect how we look at this article!
    24 Jul 2014, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yeah .. I am always the bad guy ... ...

     

    btw, read the disclosure!... before making non-sense comments
    24 Jul 2014, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • devin milowe
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    That's great how you post this article and short the stock as well. Hopefully you made a good chunk of change on the downside. My view on the stock is that it did the reverse merger with an international company to save a lot of money on taxes so that it would be a prime candidate for a potential buyout in the near future.
    24 Jul 2014, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » you realize ... your message makes no sense .... right?
    24 Jul 2014, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • toneroner
    , contributor
    Comments (279) | Send Message
     
    Unemon I respect your declaration of being a short. I'm long $Hznp. Just a question about the title of your article. Are you referring to the core products prior to vidara? Because the growth of their other products are showing quarter to quarter growth. Just wanted to know if that's the case how you got that conclusion?
    25 Jul 2014, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • UNEMON1
    , contributor
    Comments (388) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Exactly not! ... Revenue for the other products are decreasing ... if you take into account Net Revenues! ... but ... as I wrote in the article .. this will be the topic of Part II
    25 Jul 2014, 12:32 PM Reply Like
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