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DiAn Zhu
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I am an aspiring deep value investor. Finding investments that tell a great story which can be matched with quantitative data is arguably the greatest pleasure of the 21st century. I also post market updates aggregating economic indicator data on my instablog to help students and investors... More
  • Indicator Review: 4/7/14 - 4/13/14; Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade, Producer Price Index 0 comments
    Apr 14, 2014 12:59 AM

    The Indicator Review aggregates the primary economic reports released each month/quarter in one place and arranges them in five categories: overall economy, real estate, business operations, business sales, and consumers. The review is updated weekly (usually by Sunday) and is primarily for students and investors who need to catch up on what happened in the market. A tutorial on reading indicators can be found on my SA instablog post.

    New Reports: Consumer Credit, Wholesale Trade, Producer Price Index

    OVERALL ECONOMY

    GDP (click to enlarge)

    GDP up to $15.9T, Personal Consumption up to $10.8T, Private Investment up to $2.64T, Government Spending down to $2.9T, Trade Deficit down to $0.38T.

    Q4 non-residential investment up 5.7% vs. Q3 up 4.8%. Q4 residential investment down 7.9% vs. Q3 up 10.3%.

    Q4 real exports up 9.5% and imports up 1.5% vs. Q3 up 3.9% and up 2.4%, respectively.

    Employee Situation (click to enlarge)

    Long Term Unemployment down to 35.8% of unemployed.

    Employment up in Professional services, Health care, Food services and drink places, Mining and logging, Construction, and little changed for all other industries.

    Consumer Price Index (click to enlarge)

    Energy index down 0.5% and Food index up 0.4%. For energy: Electricity (-0.2%), Natural gas (3.6%), Fuel (4.1%), Gasoline (-1.7%).

    For CPI Core: Household furnishings and operations (-0.4%), Alcohol (-0.3%), Apparel (-0.3%), Used cars and trucks (-0.1%), Tobacco (-0.1%).

    Producer Price Index (click to enlarge)

    Final demand goods same and Final demand services up 0.7% led by Margins for apparel, jewelry, footwear, and accessories retailing (3.3%).

    Intermediate demand: Processed goods (-0.2%), Unprocessed goods (-0.1%), Services (0.4%).

    REAL ESTATE

    Housing Starts (click to enlarge)

    HS MoM regional units and % change: Northeast (75K, -37.5%), Midwest (78K, 34.5%), South (529K, 7.3%), West (225K, -5.5%).

    BP MoM regional: Northeast (102K, 6.3%), Midwest (134K, -11.8%), South (545K, 9.9%), West (237K, 17.9%).

    Existing Home Sales (click to enlarge)

    Existing home sales is at lowest level since Jul'12's level of 4.59M. Prices are still being lifted up by limited inventory; high prices and severe winter weather caused sales to fall.

    Same conditions as Jan; but, some transactions are just delayed and with the expected increase in job creation, home sales should trend up modestly over the year.

    BUSINESS OPERATIONS

    Employment Cost Index (click to enlarge)

    Wages and salaries up 0.6% and benefits up 0.6% in Q1 for all workers.

    Total compensation by occupational groups: Management (0.5%), Sales and office (0.7%), Natural Resources, Construction and Maintenance (0.4%), Production, transportation and material moving (0.6%), Service (0.6%).

    Purchasing Managers Index (click to enlarge)

    PMI: New Orders (55.1), Production (55.9), Employment (51.1), Supplier Deliveries (54.0), Inventories (52.5). 14/18 industries grew, 4 contracted.

    NMI: New Orders (53.4), Business Activity (53.4), Employment (53.6), Supplier Deliveries (52.0). 13/18 industries grew, 5 contracted.

    BUSINESS SALES

    Factory Orders Report (click to enlarge)

    New Orders excluding transportation up 0.7%. Shipments up 0.9% led by Transportation equipment and Petroleum and coal products. Unfulfilled orders up 0.3%. Inventories up 0.7% led by Transportation equipment and Chemical products.

    Unfulfilled orders-to-shipments ratio down to 6.50 from 6.52. Inventories-to-shipments same 1.30

    Wholesale Trade Sales Report (click to enlarge)

    Wholesales of durables up 0.1% dragged by Lumber (-2.9%) but helped by Machinery (1.8%). Non-durables up 1.2% dragged by Farm products (-4.6%) but helped by Petroleum (4.0%).

    Inventory-to-sales ratio same at 1.19.

    Retail Sales Report (click to enlarge)

    Industries with highest YoY: Nonstore retailers/ecommerce (6.3%), Health & personal care (5.5%), Building material, garden equip., supplies dealers (3.2%).

    Lowest YoY: Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (-5.2%), Gas stations (-4.6%), Electronics & appliance (-2.4%).

    CONSUMERS

    March Consumer Confidence = up to 82.3% from 78.3%

    Consumer Credit Report (click to enlarge)

    Total credit up $16.5B to $3.13T, non-revolving credit up $18.9B to $2.28T, revolving credit down $2.4B to $854B. Q4'13 student loans up $12.7B, auto loans up $11.5B vs. Q3'13 up $34.4B and $25.5B respectively.

    Q4 credit card rate down to 11.85% from Q3 11.88%, and Q4 four-year new car loan rate down to 4.42% from Q3 4.46%.

    Personal Income and Outlays (click to enlarge)

    Compensation up 0.2% vs. Jan up 0.3%. Personal current transfer receipts up 0.7% vs. Jan up 1.2%

    Personal Consumption for: Goods up 0.1% vs. Jan down 0.8%. Durables down 0.2%, non-durables up 0.3%. Services up 0.3% vs. Jan up 0.6%

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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