Thomas Almond's  Instablog

Thomas Almond
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I have been retired for over ten years. I did the online poker thing, but got tired of it after three million hands, so I have decided to take my poker bank and make a serious stab at playing with stocks. I have been in and out of the market for 15 years, but this is the first time I have ever... More
  • GEVO: Rocket To The Moon (Part 1) 3 comments
    Mar 2, 2013 3:16 AM | about stocks: GEVO

    Courtesy of the founder of Virgin Galactic

    I bought 1525 shares of GEVO @ $1.95 each Friday 3/1/13.

    March 5th UPDATE: I did not hear the news I was looking for in the ER. I exited my position in the after hours market at 4:40 pm and felt fortunate to be able to get $1.98 per share. I have no clue why 70,000 shares were bought in the after market at such a high gap up. I have not lost faith in GEVO. I am merely going to reassess my strategy and perform additional DD before jumping back in.

    There were more reasons for me to jump in than I have the energy to write about.

    I spent days making the decision doing DD and I tried to get in cheaper, but never got filled.

    My advice is do your DD over the weekend and get in early Monday morning; if not premarket if you are so inclined to gamble with me on this one. The catalyst (Earnings Report) is March 5th next week and it is not the profits were looking for. Profitability was never expected until 2014 anyway; and besides cash on hand is worth more than the entire float at current PPS. What we are really looking for is the announcement that they are ready to begin producing isobutonal. Now that they have won their court cases the way is clear for them to produce it. I am not going to explain all the details in this post, but rather give you the word you need to look up and understand in order to recognize the real catalyst. That word is isobutanol and they already have a $600,000 contract with the US Airforce to provide it.

    Here is an initial link to get you started with some background DD. You should recognize one of the names that is backing GEVO. None other than Richard Branson and his Virgin Green Fund.

    Read the article at this link.

    After you read that older article go to the company website and read the news releases from both 2012 and 2013 paying particular attention to the ones referring to "winning court cases" and "favorable rulings" against BP, Dupont and Butamax over Patents. The one regarding the stock buy back program is pretty interesting as well.

    Here is the link.;nyo=0

    This trade can either be a short swing trade, or a long play. (Perhaps Both) Depends on what you want to do and what your ultimately after. As with all gambling there are no sure things. Do your own DD.

    The short interest on GEVO is over ripe for a squeeze and the longs are not only very exited and enthusiastic right now, but you will find they are out in force and determined to bust through the resistance and send the shorts into a rout.

    Seeking Alpha has the short interest float at 45.9% with over 4 days to cover. Be aware that Seeking Alpha uses a different formula and read for short interest than all the other sites. They calculate the short interest as a percentage of the total float leaving out the Institutional Investors I believe. Hence the term "short interest float" Check it out for yourself. Just be sure to add it to your portfolio on the Seeking Alpha website and then access the "Momentum" tab.

    The current Institutional Investment is over 40% of the total float in GEVO by the way.

    Disclosure: I am long GEVO.

    Stocks: GEVO
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Comments (3)
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  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Share Statistics (Total Float = 38.55M)


    % Held by Insiders - 56.34%
    % Held by Institutions - 42.70%


    Gee... that leaves a whole 1% of the entire float of shares for the public to fight over.


    GEVO is using 15 million cash to buy back shares?


    There are 6.5 million shares shorted?


    What does it mean?
    5 Mar 2013, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • bigterguy
    , contributor
    Comments (43) | Send Message
    "Now that they have won their court cases the way is clear for them to produce it."


    Not true. The trial is set for April.

    18 Mar 2013, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » bigterguy replied
    "Not true. The trial is set for April."


    They are allowed to produce it as the injunction to stop them was nixed by the trial judge and reaffirmed by the appeals court. They are not allowed to sell it for use as a fuel additive (gasoline).


    They are allowed to sell it for industrial chemical purposes which is what their primary intention was all along. They make more money selling it that way anyway.
    19 Mar 2013, 05:05 PM Reply Like
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