Seeking Alpha

Thomas Almond's  Instablog

Thomas Almond
Send Message
I have been retired for over ten years. I did the online poker thing, but got tired of it after three million hands, so I have decided to take my poker bank and make a serious stab at playing with stocks. I have been in and out of the market for 15 years, but this is the first time I have ever... More
  • Mast Therapeutics, Inc.: A Swing Traders Play Too 28 comments
    Sep 23, 2013 3:16 PM | about stocks: MSTX

    Mast Therapeutics, Inc (MSTX) is a great long term investment, but I have been swing trading it successfully now for a couple of months. It seems to be trading within its Bollinger Band offering repeatable opportunities for between 10% to 20% profit per swing trade.

    There is a solid bottom due to the cash on hand with financing just recently out of the way and multiple good catalysts upcoming in the third and fourth quarters. Trading both below book ($0.76) and well below enterprise value has the bulls calling this play a no brainer.

    This new evaluation of MST-118 EPIC trial with phase III redesigned (Peds only) sets up MSTX for huge win. A new article published on 9/25 called "Mast Therapeutics Begins Pivotal Phase 3 Study in Children with Sickle Cell Disease" can be accessed at the hyperlink.

    For Swing Traders

    Here are a few of the sources I use to help keep abreast of when to buy and when to sell. I don't base my decision when to buy, or sell solely on these analytics, but they are fun to use and do provide valuable insight towards making decisions.

    Stock Consultant at Nasdaq.com

    Three Bullish Indicators with an overall technical summery that is 90% Bullish with zero Bearish Indicators as of the time of this publication.

    1) Intermediate trend bullish, Downtrend turned sideways, possible bottom. (This is the third time in a row it has bottomed here)

    2) Mild bullish 3 day chart pattern with Good 3 day accumulation.

    3) at support

    Candlestick chart patterns at AmericanBulls.com

    Our system's recommendation today is to BUY. The BULLISH HARAMI CROSS pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed the confirmation level which was at 0.4331, and our valid average buying price stands now at 0.4340. The previous SELL recommendation was issued on 9/11/2013, 9 days ago, when the stock price was 0.4500. Since then MSTX has fallen by -3.56%.

    Market Outlook

    Let's jump on our white horses and go for a bullish ride. Today's candlestick has a white body and its close is above the confirmation level. The bullish pattern that was previously identified is finally confirmed and a BUY signal is generated. The trend is also bullish and perhaps it is the right time to participate in bullish fervor. The market is telling you about a new profit. Do not miss this bullish opportunity.

    Here at Macroaxis.com you can find some great analysis tools.

    Mast Therapeutics Inc is now traded for 0.43 . This company has historical hype elasticity of 0.35 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.44. Mast Therapeutics Inc is projected to increase in value after the next headline with price jump to $0.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 84.43%. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 32.67% where as daily expected return is now at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Mast is about 67.26% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 0.87. The company has Current Ratio of 15.93 suggesting that it is liquid enough and is able to pay its financial obligations when they are due. Given investment horizon of 30 days, the next projected press release will be in a few days.

    P.S. Enjoy these resources for other stocks as well.

    Disclosure: I am long MSTX.

    Themes: Biotech Stocks: MSTX
Back To Thomas Almond's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (28)
Track new comments
  • tpim
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    The European Medicines Agency granted Glyco Mimetics orphan drug designation GMI-1070 for the treatment of vaso-occlusive crisis in patients with sicklecell disease. GMI-1070 is being developed in partnership with Pfizer. Do you think that is affecting mstx price?
    23 Sep 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ tpim

     

    After looking at Glyco Mimetics website and giving a cursory glance at where they are at with GMI-1070 I would have to say the PPS of MSTX is not effected by it at all. Why would it be?

     

    Glyco Mimetics is still in Phase II which MSTX has already completed successfully with glowing results.

     

    MSTX has already started MST-188 in Phase III for SCD; already has orphan drug status in Europe and in other indications it has the potential to reduce ischemic tissue injury and end-organ damage by restoring microvascular function, which is compromised in a wide range of serious and life-threatening diseases and conditions (Not just SCD) that are different from GMI-1070 which currently is being researched for only one other indication besides SCD.

     

    The drugs have completely different mechanisms of action.
    24 Sep 2013, 03:46 AM Reply Like
  • jetpilotdan
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    What do you think the long term price of MSTX would be? Also it looks like ANX-514 got its patent approval. Do you think they will finish development of that drug too?
    24 Sep 2013, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ jetpilotdan

     

    This should answer all your questions and then some.
    http://bit.ly/1d0AfYg

     

    Frankly I am not interested in gambling all the way through until approval of MST-188

     

    I like the way $heff plays biostocks and try to replicate his results.
    http://bit.ly/16EDsWo

     

    You get in now and sell at .60, or even less it is well worth the play as a swing trade. Might even be able to squeeze in a few 10% to 20% swing trades before it gets to .60

     

    You want to hold long as in a year and still sell before the big gamble with the FDA I fully expect you will see it over a buck.

     

    The institutions cannot use their warrants for 7.5 million more shares unless they pay .65 which means the additional dilution will not happen until the PPS is well over .65

     

    There is more information in my other article posted on MSTX including analyst price targets. No debt at all. Share price is currently well below enterprise value. There is a healthy short position that will at some point get squeezed. The shorts are probably what is driving the swing trade opportunities. Furthermore there is plenty of daily volume on this stock.

     

    Just so you know it trades on the AMEX. It is not an OTCBB Pink sheet and is in no danger of being delisted. AMEX does not require the PPS remain over a buck. Only that the company is not some phony ripoff shell. MSTX has far too much cash for the AMEX to scrutinize them for delisting.
    24 Sep 2013, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    which press release are you expecting thomas?
    24 Sep 2013, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ atrickpay

     

    None in particular although any one of an expected few could hit at anytime.

     

    We could be sitting at .43 for the next ten days, or a month from now with no movement.

     

    Might see it drop to .35 before a big run up, or we might see .47 by weeks end even without any news.

     

    You just have to pick your entry and be patient.

     

    You can get conspiratorial about price manipulation and the effects of HFT trading including institutions shorting their own stocks, but in the end you have to be solid on your DD and confident enough not to let the waiting, or the dips get to you. Always pick your stop just in case.

     

    The DD I have done is pretty rock solid. In hindsight you can always say if only I would have bought that other stock instead, but there again your just second guessing yourself.

     

    Here are three catalysts all scheduled for quarter 3 according to information posted on the company website. June 30, 2013 was the official end of the 2nd quarter. Third quarter ends the last day of September which will be next Monday.

     

    I can see them delaying two of them, but I think the odds are they will announce at least one. That is my bet anyway.

     

    1) Submit Applications for U.S. Government Funding for Phase 2 Study in Resuscitation of Shock following Major Trauma Q3

     

    2) Request Orphan Designation for MST-188 for ALI in U.S. Q3

     

    3) Initiate Nonclinical Proof-of-Concept Study in Heart Failure Q3
    http://1.usa.gov/16wf4Fo
    24 Sep 2013, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ atrickpay

     

    Having said all that there is the press release and results of the 3rd quarter itself which we can presume will include a conference call, or something. After having just finished doing those three conference presentations in close succession they should be well rehearsed for it and hopefully impress.

     

    2nd Quarter ended July 31 and they released the results on August 5th, so we could see 3rd quarter results out as early as Friday October 4th next week, or on Monday the 7th.

     

    Analysts will likely be weighing in too which could generate even more media hype volitility.
    24 Sep 2013, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    2nd quarter ended june 30. q3 shud be out ~ 11.05.
    25 Sep 2013, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Your right. August 5th.

     

    Still we should be expecting press releases for these at any time.

     

    1) Submit Applications for U.S. Government Funding for Phase 2 Study in Resuscitation of Shock following Major Trauma Q3

     

    2) Request Orphan Designation for MST-188 for ALI in U.S. Q3

     

    3) Initiate Nonclinical Proof-of-Concept Study in Heart Failure Q3
    http://1.usa.gov/16wf4Fo
    25 Sep 2013, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    i think mstx could gradually rise up in valuation like APPY has been doing. APPY has gone from 1.20 to 2.18 over the last 3 months--+75% move. I think the company has put out just 1 p/r (1st futility analysis). Has been several s.a. articles tho. And has been no form 4 buying on it recently. If MSTX gets some form 4 buying that could start a big move up. People can email IR to request that exec's/directors start putting their interests more in line with shareholders': ir@mastthera.com. And to the CEO too, i think the addy is bculley@mastthera.com
    25 Sep 2013, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New evaluation of MST-118 EPIC trial. This Ph 3 redesign (Peds only) sets this up for huge win.
    http://bit.ly/19F8Yo4
    25 Sep 2013, 12:53 PM Reply Like
  • jetbroo
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I agree with atrickpaay's comment.
    Thomas, the system you follow is hard to follow. Perhaps writing it in laymen's terms may help, also you are implying that you are a swing trader from your first statement. It is contradictory from your disclosure, and investors can get the wrong idea about you. Keep writing though! I think you have a winner in MSTX. It's got all the right cards in place. Nothing wrong with being honest, but most investors would like to see high confidence all around a stock pick!!! It is just like a salesperson. The most successful ones are those that believe in their product. It is the reason why I like atrickpay's comment. GLTY
    25 Sep 2013, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ jetbroo

     

    I can understand how you might be confused about my seemingly conflicting Long position and then hyping the Swing Trade.

     

    Consider this though. Throughout my history of playing stocks just like anyone I learn through experience.

     

    With numerous other stocks I have played in the past I would frequently take advantage of a pop to sell my position and then get back in on the pull back. I thought it was a great way to average down my PPS. Invariably what would happen most of the time is I would miss the big run as I would sell thinking their would be another pull back. Invariably you eventually get to a pop that is more than a pop and you end up banging your head against the wall for missing the big runup even if you were able to make a nice return by selling and then buying back on a pullback a few times.

     

    Eventually it occurred to me that the way to play it might be to engage in the practice with just half of your position.

     

    That way you can sell on pops and buy back on pullbacks to average down your PPS and still maintain the other half of your position without the risk of missing out on the eventual big runup.

     

    I had that happen to me with ZGNX where I had myself averaged down to $1.25 per share after having bought in initially at $1.50 per share.

     

    I missed the big runup to over $2.00

     

    I still made a profit, but missed the big payoff.
    26 Sep 2013, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » New article Out on MSTX on 9/25

     

    Mast Therapeutics Begins Pivotal Phase 3 Study in Children with Sickle Cell Disease
    http://bit.ly/1b9MaQv
    26 Sep 2013, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » More good assuring news today on the 514 Patent.

     

    Looks like the official date for Issuance of the 514 patent will be Oct 15th of this year. For the first time I see a patent number not a application number. Patent number 8557861

     

    Go to the United States Patent Office Public Pair web site. Once in type in application number 10/952243

     

    Then click on the image file wrapper at the top of the page. Have a look for yourself.

     

    You can also just access the document directly from this link.
    http://1.usa.gov/1h695wU

     

    Notice the name is Dr. Andrew Chen, Ph.D from MSTX?

     

    That's a good thing. Adds value. I look for a PR on all that soon.
    26 Sep 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    that usa.gov link ain't working for me thomas fyi..didn't work either when i saw you post it on twitter
    27 Sep 2013, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    thomas, i was able to get this to work. However...I just checked mstx's website,,,andrew chen is not listed on their as on mgmt, or on board of directors...why do you think he mite be an employee?
    28 Sep 2013, 12:52 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ atrickplay

     

    Double check me and make sure I am right. I was passing along information I found posted by someone else. I did go so far as to look this up though. I suppose it is possible that document with Chen's name on it has to do with a different patent that is not associated with MSTX. Now you have me wondering.

     

    As I understand it Chen remained at MSTX as a consultant? Maybe he left, or maybe he remains. I don't know.

     

    In last quarters 10Q they stated that they had filed for patent protection covering the proprietary supercritical fluid extraction process, methods of using poloxamers in various clinical settings, and the use of poloxamers in combination therapy. Methods of manufacturing and methods of using MST-188.

     

    "Nano-Emulsion Technology" was developed by Dr. Andrew Chen, Ph.D., the co-founder of SD Pharma and was bought out by ADVENTRX (ANX) in April 2006.
    http://1.usa.gov/1bgPNnQ
    28 Sep 2013, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You will notice that the patent were talking about at the link is titled...

     

    "Low oil emulsion compositions for delivering taxoids and other insoluble drugs"

     

    Frankly this is all beyond my ability to definitively say one way, or the other if maybe we are looking at information that is not officially being made public by the company since it won't become official until October 15th, but the fact remains that CHEN is most definitely all tied up with MSTX patents even if he is not on the BOD, or still an employee.

     

    Perhaps a call to investor relations is in order. Perhaps the simplist way to verify it would be to ask them what the exact title of the patent was that they filed. If it matches the above title then we know that is the one.
    28 Sep 2013, 02:41 PM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    here's Chen's linked in...http://linkd.in/15DB5CU have him working for ANX or MSTx. And he lives in San Diego per his linked in.

     

    Per the 3.8.2012 10-k at this link: http://bit.ly/15DB5D1, ANX bot some company off him.
    29 Sep 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    For mstx's timeline to hear back on their orphan request on ALI...
    3 companies have received orphan in the last month:
    a) omer
    b) zlcs
    c) dcth

     

    I don't know when the latter two requested orphan, but OMER requested on 5.23 and got it 9.30. Posting this in case someone wants to find out the details for zlcs and dcth
    2 Oct 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • javier perez
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    you, know the date of the application for orphan drug for ALI,
    in USA?
    2 Oct 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » @ javier perez @ atrickpay

     

    I do not believe that MSTX has even filed for Orphan status for ALI.

     

    I could be wrong. I tried to find a date earlier and was unsuccessful. I think they may still be in the negotiating stage with the FDA on parameters for a Phase II study and that might be the holdup.
    2 Oct 2013, 11:39 PM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    javier, thomas: i heard from I/r that they have applied for orphan for ALI. So if that is correct, they did it in q3 as they indicated they would. Ie. kept their word
    3 Oct 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • tpim
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    mstx is up nicely today. Can't find out why. Anybody
    know anything?
    3 Oct 2013, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • atrickpay
    , contributor
    Comments (387) | Send Message
     
    tpim: http://bit.ly/1hnlzR4
    3 Oct 2013, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • Thomas Almond
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » $heff issued an alert and a whole bunch of new speculators bought up a whole lot of shares.
    26 Oct 2013, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • joeg1969
    , contributor
    Comments (300) | Send Message
     
    Purchased looking at the 5year chart its due for an outbreak long$MSTX
    5 Oct 2013, 09:13 AM Reply Like
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.