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ETF Clone of Morninstar's Stellar 401K -- Step 1 Map ETF's and Measure Returns 0 comments
Over the next series of articles we are going to attempt to build an ETF clone and learn, step by step, where we can improve performance to end up with an elegant and high performance plan.
The first step is to simply replicate each of the funds in each asset class with an ETF equivalent. We use the commission free ETFs selected by Morningstar for TD Ameritrade. Once we have done that, we will measure the performance of the portfolio against the original.Below is the fund list for each plan so that you can see how it was cloned. For those that are interested, it is possible to substitute other ETFs.
Asset Class
401K
Clone
COMMODITIES BROAD BASKET
PCRIX
DBC
DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS
NEWFX
EWX
DIVERSIFIED EMERGING MKTS
ODVYX
VWO
Financial
FSLBX
XVF
Foreign Large Blend
VWILX
VEA
Foreign Large Value
TBGVX
EFV
High Yield Bond
PHIYX
JNK
Inflation-Protected Bond
PRRIX
TIP
Intermediate-Term Bond
PTTRX
AGG
LARGE BLEND
SLASX
VTI
LARGE BLEND
VINIX
IWV
LARGE BLEND
OAKMX
VIG
LARGE GROWTH
HACAX
MGK
LARGE GROWTH
CISIX
VUG
LARGE VALUE
RWMFX
VTV
Mid-Cap Growth
BRWIX
IWP
Mid-Cap Growth
POAGX
VOT
MID-CAP VALUE
VASVX
VOE
Moderate Allocation
VGSTX
AOM
Multisector Bond
LSBDX
GVI
REAL ESTATE
REFDX
VNQ
Cash
CASH
CASH
SHORT GOVERNMENT
STABLEVALUE
SHY
Short-Term Bond
VBISX
BSV
SMALL BLEND
OTCFX
VB
SMALL VALUE
PSVIX
VBR
We were able to map each class from the TDA plan with the exception of:
Financial
FSLBX
XVF
We used XVF which is the ETF we use to monitor the US Sectors.
Asset Class
401K
Clone
We remarked that this was an excellent selection in terms of quality and balance.
We now compare the rankings.
Rating Attribute
401K
Clone
Diversification
97%
97%
Fund Quality
63%
33%
Portfolio Building
95%
49%
Overall Rating
86%
58%
We note that the diversification is the same but the fund quality of the managed funds are higher than the ETF index funds showing selections with good managers.
As a result, the ability to combine the funds to create strong portfolios is also reduced and so there is a significant difference between the plan ratings.
Once we have established a baseline, we will start working on improving the fund quality to see if we can get closer to the original.
At the moment, we are expecting the performance of the clone not to meet the the original.
Portfolio Performance
Performance chart (as of Jan 28, 2011)
Performance table (as of Jan 28, 2011)
The returns are fair in an absolute sense even if we see this under-performing the original portfolio. We will expect to drive this up as we tune the fund selections.
We anticipate that with better fund selection, we will be able to drive up returns between 1-2% and we will see whether this turns out to be true.
When we use the TD Ameritrade plan with 101 commission free ETFs -- i.e. we give a wide choice for rotating funds, we are able to get much closer to the original plan.
Performance chart (as of Jan 28, 2011)
Performance table (as of Jan 28, 2011)
We have established an initial version of the clone with returns that are within striking distance of the original. We have shown that with a large selection of funds, we can meet the original in returns if not in elegance.
The next step is to start drilling down on individual ETF choices to see if we can drive the performance up.
Disclosure:
MyPlanIQ does not have any business relationship with the company or companies that provide the funds mentioned in this article. MyPlanIQ does not set up investment plans. The performance data of portfolios mentioned above are obtained through historical simulation and are hypothetical.
Disclosure: I am long DBC, DJP, IWO, IJR.
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Learn From The Master: The Goldman Sachs 401K Plan Provides Stellar Investment Choices http://stks.co/3LLJ $GS $SPY $AGG $DBC
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