Financial Market Report for the week ending Janaury 23, 2100
I ... Indonesia And Philippine Stocks Fall Further On Inflation Destruction
Berni Moestafa and Ian Sayson of Bloomberg report: Indonesia, Philippine Stocks Drop 10% From Highs on Inflation. Stocks in Indonesia, IDX, and neighboring Philippines, EPHE, slid, driving their benchmark indexes more than 10 percent below recent highs, on concern inflation will lead to higher borrowing costs and pare corporate earnings. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index fell 1.2 percent to 3,956.74 as of 11:34 a.m. in Manila, a decline of 10 percent from its all-time high of 4,397.30 on Nov. 4. The Jakarta Composite index fell 3.1 percent to 3,347.66, extending its tumble to 12 percent since its Dec. 9 record. Indonesia and the Philippines are set to join China and India in sliding more than 10 percent from their peaks, a level signifying a so-called correction to some analysts and investors. Emerging markets are in retreat as central banks from China to India act to stem price gains. “Inflation is the biggest threat and concern in the market now,” said Julian Tarrobago, who helps oversee $200 million in assets at ATR KimEng Asset Management Inc. in Manila. “The market is well aware that inflation will come after rapid growth and it has now reached a point that it has become an issue.” (Hat tip to Gary of Between The Hedges)
II … China Falls More on Credit Tightening
Belinda Cao of Bloomberg reports China Swaps Climb to 2-Year High on Rate-Rise Prospects. China’s, YAO, and CHIX, one-year interest-rate swaps climbed to the highest level since July 2008 as faster-than- forecast economic growth fueled speculation the central bank will raise borrowing costs in coming weeks. The contracts, which exchange the seven-day repurchase rate for fixed payments, gained 10 basis points to 3.64 percent as of 12:19 p.m. in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The repo rate, a gauge of cash availability in the interbank market, almost tripled this week. The swaps market reflected bets for the benchmark one-year deposit rate to be raised by about a percentage point from 2.75 percent in 2011. The seven-day repurchase rate surged 4.74 percentage points in the past five days, the biggest weekly jump since October 2007. The rate climbed 1.27 percentage points to 7.3 percent today, according to the National Interbank Funding Center’s daily fixing in Shanghai. “Swaps will continue rising as money availability can only become tighter as the central bank seeks to drain liquidity by lifting banks’ reserve requirements to curb lending,” said Ye Yuzhang, an interest-rate trader at Industrial Bank Co. in Shanghai. “All Chinese officials are quite hawkish, acknowledging inflation concerns,” said Wee-Khoon Chong, a fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. He predicts benchmark rates will be raised by 50 basis points this quarter, 25 in the second and 25 in the final six months of 2011. (Hat tip to Gary of Between The Hedges)
Economic growth in China is not viable and cannot be sustained The Telegraph analysts communicate in article: The Bear Case: Why Top Investors are Betting Against China. While the official data continues to paint a picture of an economic powerhouse, some of the most respected financial brains in the world are doing everything they can to “short China”. Jim Chanos, the hedge fund manager who famously made millions by uncovering and betting on the demise of Enron, has said he is now betting against China. His view is that China’s growth is based on a huge credit bubble backed by inflated property prices - and that the bubble is now so big that the Chinese government will not be able to engineer a soft landing.
He backed by Mark Hart, of Corriente Advisors, the American hedge fund manager who made millions of dollars predicting both the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, who started a fund based on the belief that rather than being the “key engine for global growth”, China is an “enormous tail-risk”.
In London, Hugh Hendry, a former star of Odey Asset Management, has launched a distressed China fund at Eclectica Asset Management. As The Sunday Telegraph reported, the key argument is that China’s ferocious consumption is not drive by demand. For instance, Corriente’s research has found that China has consumed just 65pc of the cement it has produced in five years, after exports.
The country is outputting more steel than the world’s next seven largest producers combined. It has 200m tons of excess capacity. There’s an excess of 3.3bn square metres of floor space in China – yet 200m square metres of new space is being constructed each year.
And behind it all, the bears say, is a looming banking crisis. Professor Victor Shih of Northwestern University, Illinois, estimates that Chinese banks have lent $1.7 trillion (£1.1 trillion) to businesses which are not commercially viable. Experts around the world. have dismissed the hedge funds as short-term speculators or even trouble-makers. But on Tuesday Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street trail blazer, issued a short-term alert on China, as well as the other BRIC countries, EEB, Tim Moe, the bank’s chief Asia-Pacific strategist, told at conference in London: “To be frank, we may have held on too long to our overweight position in China last year. We have decided that discretion is the better part of valour and have tactically reduced our weight. (Hat tip to Gary of Between The Hedges)
III … Natural gas appears to have hit resistance
Natural gas, UNG, rose strongly this week: it was up 7% but manifested a questioning doji suggesting that its rise was Euro generated and thus cannot be sustained.
IV … Basic materials, small cap stocks and Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index show the way is now down.
Small Cap Basic Material Stocks, XLBS, fell 4.3% this week. Today Horsehead Holding, ZINC, -4.7%, Cliff Natural Resources, CLF, -3.1% and Teck Resources, TCK, -2.3%.
A number of Small Cap Energy Stocks fell lower today; these included Whiting Petroleum, WLL -1.2%, Bronco Drilling, BRNC -2.1% and Petroleum Development, PETD, -1.1%.
The 3.9% fall in Basic Materials, IYM, this week, gives substance to the concept that a run on, that is a sell off, in basic material stocks is underway; and suggests that the basic material stocks are showing the way is now down, not up, for stocks.
China Minerals, CHIM, and BHP Billiton, BHP, have entered into an Elliott Wave 3 Down.
Coal, KOL, has entered into an Elliott Wave 3 Down. And the US Dollar liquidity rally, being over as seen in the fall in the chart of the US Dollar, $USD, has caused a strong sell off in ANR Resources, ANR, and Arch Coal, ACI.
Copper Miners, COPX, are on the verge of a major sell off at a price of 19.20. Southern Copper Corp, SCCO, has entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down.
Fertilizer manufacturers Potash, POT. and Mosaic, MOO, have turned parabolically lower.
The 4.5% fall in Metal Manufacturing, XME, this week, together with Insteel Industries, IIIN -3.2%, Metalico, MEA, -3.4% and Globe Specialty Metals, GSM, -1.0% for the day, suggests that a global bear market has commenced.
The fall in US based Steel Stocks, Schnitzer Steel, SCHN, -1.6% and US Steel, X, -1.5%, communicates that the US Dollar liquidity rally is over.
Water stocks, FIW, turned 3.7% lower this week.
The 4.2% downturn in the shipping stocks, SEA, for the week, and the 1.4% for the day, suggest that a world wide bear market has commenced.
Biotechnology, XBI, -1.4%. The 3.4% fall for the week, and the 1.4% fall for the year suggests that the age of profiting from biotechnology research is history.
Gaming, BJK, -1.2%, with MGM Resorts, MGM, -2.1% and Las Vegas Sands, LVS, resides on the edge of a head and shoulders pattern, portending a strong fall lower.
S&P Nasdaq Clean Energy, ICLN, has crested and entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down suggesting that investing in clean energy technology is no longer a paying investment.
Nasdaq Clean Energy, QCLN, turned parabolically lower this week and lost 3.9%.
Pharmaceutical, XPH, -1.4%, with Akorn Pharmaceuticals, AKRX, -3.1%
Silver Miners, SIV -2.5%
Stocks are now likely to be suffer from sovereign debt demonetization similar to that which has been experienced by the Gold Miners, GDX, -1.3% The gold mining stocks have been in severe sell off mode every since the European Leaders failed to come to a comprehensive solution to the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in mid December 2010. The fall of the gold mining stocks commenced with the announcement of QE 2 by Ben Bernanke and thus witness that their rise has come through seigniorage and speculation provided by US Central bank policies. The chart of the gold mining stocks relative to gold, GDX:GLD, shows that the gold mining stocks disconnected from the price of gold when the European Leaders met in summit on December 13, 2010 and as John Mauldin ended with kicking the can down the road; meaning that that they did not come to any resolution to the sovereign and bank debt crisis. Gold stocks lost their moneyness as it became clear that the leaders have lost their debt sovereignty.
The ongoing three month chart of the gold mining stocks, GDX, together with the 30 Year US Government Bond, EDV, and the Ten Year US Government Note, TLT, along with the Small Cap Basic Material Shares, XLBS, and the Russell 2000 Growth Shares, IWO, and the Small Cap Energy Shares, XLES, document the monetization of debt by the announcement and the beneficial inflation that came to the small cap US based companies as well as the ending of moneyness to the gold mining stocks. Quantative Easing II commenced the loss of debt sovereignty, that is debt seigniorage, by the US Central Bank, and commenced the loss of moneyness to came to the gold mining stocks that came through a flattening 30 10 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TYX:$TNX.
The fall lower in transportation stocks, Air Transport Services Group, ATSG, Grupo Aeroportuario del Suereste, ASR, and Genesee and Wyoming Railroad, GWR, communicates that a global bear market is underway.
The beginning of a bear market is seen in the chart of world stocks, VT, and ACWI. The down turn in the Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, $CYC, gives credence to the concept that a world wide bear stock market has commenced. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index, Basic Materials Component, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, FCX, fell 2.3% today.
Home Building, ITB, -1.2% The rally in home building stocks came to an end the week of January 22, 2011. KBH Homes, KBH, and Lennar, LEN, are poised to fall lower.
Tableware products manufacturer, Libbey, LBY, has entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down sell off on a falling US Dollar, $USD. Once such a wave commences, it is impossible for any thing to intervene to stop the decline.
Waste services, EVX, has entered into an Elliott Wave 3 Decline; being led lower by Nalco Holding, NLC
Dow Internet, FDN, -1.5% and Google, GOOG, -2.4%, and Amazon, AMZN, -2.5%. The fall in these together with the fall in Internet Capital Group, ICGE, -3.3%, communicates that an end has come to the US Dollar Liquidity Rally. Confirmation of such comes from the fall lower this week in the US Dollar, $USD to 78.10. It may be that world currencies, DBV, and emerging market currencies, CEW, will be falling lower this next week and that the US Dollar, $USD, will be taking a bounce up.
The chart of the Small Cap Dividend Shares, DES, and the rotation of investment into the Dow, DIA, stocks such as Exxon Mobil, XOM, and especially Chevron, CXV, Disney, DIS, suggests that a market top is being achieved.
Small Cap Information Technology, XLKS, -1.2%
Networking, IGN, fell 5.6% for the week.
Semiconductors, XSD, fell 4.3% for the week with Cypress Semiconductors, CY, -5.1% and Nvidia, NVDA, -5.8%.
Nasdaq Internet, PNQI, -1.0%. Money flowing out of the Nasdaq shares and into the Dow stocks such as Exxon Mobil, XOM, today.
The fall in the Printed Circuit Boards, JBL Circuits, JBL, -3.9%, Flextronics, FLEX, -2.6% suggests that a global bear stock market has commenced.
Given that the market is entering a bear market, the blast higher in Intuitive Surgical, ISRG, to 326.58 is unlikely to be sustained and is an outstanding short selling opportuntity.
Consumer Discretionary: Rental Centers: Rent A Center, RCII, -1.6%. This is the last best opportunity to place a short sell order on this stock.
Nanotechnology, PXN, -1.0% The fall in nanotechnology suggests that a global bear market is underway.
A number of countries fell lower today.
Thailand, THD, -2.3%
South Korea Small Caps, SKOR, -1.5% and South Korea, EWY, -1.2%
Japan, EWJ, -1.0% and Japan Small Caps, JSC, -1.5% Japanese stocks began their decline the week ending January 22, 2011.
Emerging Markets, EEM, -1.0% A rally high has been achieved in the emerging markets.
Brazil Small Caps, BRF, -1.0%. The Brazil small stocks entered a sell off this week; the Brazil Financial, BRAF, have been in a down pretty much since the first of the year. This suggests a strong down for the Brazilian shares, EWZ as well as their 200% ETF, BRIL.
Australian Small Caps, KROO, -1.0%. A downturn has commenced in the Australian Small Cap Shares.
The 4.3% fall in the small cap Revenue Shares, RWJ, this week, suggests that the stock market is turning over. Companies in this category include NewStar Financial, NEWS, Morningstar, MORN, Dollar Financial, DLLR,
The 1.6% pop higher of Banks, KBE, to the middle of a broadening top pattern at 26.60 going back to May, 2010, suggests that the bank shares will be falling lower.
Bank of America, BAC, has fallen parabolically lower.
The Nasdaq Community Banks, QABA, reside on the edge of head and shoulders pattern at 25.00 as does Bank leader Cathay Bank Corp, CATY, at 16.20.
Credit provider, Mastercard, MA, has entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down, smack dab in the middle of a broadening top pattern that goes back to the middle of October 2010. Credit provider Nelnet, NNI, has entered a broadening top pattern that was established in early December 2010.
In summary, the fall in Retail, XRT, and more importantly gold mining, GDX, Airlines, FAA, establish that a bear market has commenced. Retail stocks have seen their rally come and go. And the gold mining stocks exemplify completion of rally, on the flattening of the 30 10 US sovereign debt yield curve. Seigniorage of US Sovereign debt is ending, as Bond Vigilantes have seized control of interest rates across the board, from the Interest Rate on the 30 Year US Government Bond, $TYX, as well as the US Ten Year Note, $TNX, resulting in the moneyness that came with US Federal Reserve credit expansion and anticipation of QE 2 is failing, turning retail, gold mining and airline stocks lower.
V … Gold is nearing a turn higher chart and analyst suggests
South Africa Shares, EZA, fell 4.9% on a falling South African Rand, SZR, and falling gold, GLD, price.
Gold, GLD, closed at 131; support is lower at 129.52. At these prices gold is likely to pop out of, that is break out of its current consolidation triangle.
Got Gold writes Unusual COT Action, Bullion Banks Cover Shorts, Swap Dealers Hammer Gold
The overall picture here is quite bearish, in spite of the fact that Bespoke Investment Group reports it’s going to be a big week for earnings reports. A rise is at hand for gold which would be bullish for the South African Rand - Yen carry trade, SZR:FXY and as well as for day traders going long gold mining shares, GDX, especially Newmont Mining, NEM, as these have fallen 12.2% and 9.1% in the last month. This as Caroline Valetkevitch of Reuters relates ECRI Reports US. Economy Growth Gauge Hits 36-Week High.
With the rally in the Euro likely complete, its a good time to create a Finviz Portfolio and start to follow currencies: FXA, FXE, FXM, FXC, ICN, FXB, FXS, SZR, FXF, CYB, BZF, XRU, FXY, BNZ, DBV, CEW as the currency traders recommence competitive currency devaluations, as the bond vigilantes redouble their efforts, stimulating rising, not falling, sovereign debt angst.
VI … The Euro rose on the EFSF’s Director’s statement that Greece’s debt will not need to be restructured.
The Euro, FXE, entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down, manifesting an evening star on November 4, 2010, with price of 141.50, as Mrs Merkel called for a haircut to be given to bond holders, and as she called for a default mechanism on European Debt.
The Euro, FXE, is likely coming in with an Elliott Wave 2 up and ready to enter an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 Down, on November 19, 2010, at a price of 135.63 as Gregory White reports European sovereign CDS prices are lower after the head of the European Financial Stability Facility said Greece's debt will not need to be restructured. Whether you believe him or not, the market does, and CDS prices have dipped on the news.
The European Financials, EUFN, have now rallied from a low of 18, when the EFSF monetary authority was announced in July 2010, to a high of 23. All things considered a market top either has been achieved or will be coming in this next week.
The US Financial Sector, XLF, has rallied from 13.50 to a high of 16.50 in the same period; all things considered a market top has likely been achieved.
Mr. Trichet, in holding back on any ECB rate hike, was another factor in driving the Euro higher this week. Higher ECB rates would increase the burden on debt-strapped nations. The central bank has held its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent since May 2009 instituting basically a ZIRP policy which has enabled European stocks, VGK, to rise from 34.50 to 50.50 today. Yahoo Finance chart shows that this week the European shares rallied 1.5% while the Russell Growth Shares, IWO, fell 4.0% .
Of the High Beta Russell 2000 Stocks that Tyler Durden highlights, two are still good short selling prospects: American Axle, AXL, and Sun Rise Living, SRZ.
Sweden, EWD, Switzerland, EWL, rose strongly; but nevertheless, their charts show that currency deflation has commenced in these shares.
Europe, VGK, Germany, EWG, and Austria, EWO, were reset to their rally high by the strong rise in the Euro, FXE.
Spain, EWP, and Italy, EWI, rose strongly; once the Euro falls, these will be very fast fallers.
Alice Cook in article Recovery And Catastrophe A Two Track Eurozone reports: The German economy is definitely showing signs of life. The IFO business climate index hit 110.3 points in January as seen in chart. It is now at its highest level since since it started recording business sentiment 20 years ago. The Eurozone economies are now on two quite different tracks. In the centre, the recovery is well underway. However the periphery is excluded from the recovery due to a pernicious mix of banking sector and fiscal crises
The strong Euro took Italian energy company ENI, E, and Spanish oil company Repsol, REP, to new highs, to match Dow and S&P component Exxon Mobil, XOM, These energy companys’ rise together with the rise in Banco Santander, STD, documents that in this Euro rally, the most toxic of investments got the most benefit. The rise in Banco Santander will go down in the investment text books as truly stunning, as it rose not parabolically, but vertically, over the last eight trading days; it is an immediate short selling opportunity.
The rally gave a stunning rise to Siemens, SI, bringing it to a new rally high. The weekly chart of Siemens suggests that it is cresting at an Elliott Wave 2 up and ready to enter into an Elliott Wave 3 Down.
Chart of Siemens Daily, SI, shows a lollipop hanging man candlestick suggesting that the rally top has been achieved in these shares as well as Germany, EWG, and Europe.
The rally in the Euro carried International Dividend Payers, DOO, higher. And the strong Euro drew up Wind Energy, FAN, and reset it in an Elliot Wave 2 high preparing it for an Elliott Wave 3 Down; its chart shows the lollipop hanging man candlestick suggesting an end to its strong rally.
Lessening of European Sovereign Debt angst rallied world government bonds, BWX, but failed to rally international corporate bonds, PICB.
And the lessening of European Sovereign Debt angst gave what is likely a final rally to junk bonds, JNK, as they rose to 40.22 besting their former high of 40.20 on January 6, 2011. The seigniorage which has come to investments world wide via global sovereign debt is peaking; and as such, peak wealth was most likely achieved the week ending January 22, 2011.
With a top coming in Junk bonds, Peak Credit is also being achieved.
The 1.6% fall lower in leveraged buyouts, PSP, is consistent with the concept of Peak Credit having been achieved.
The flattening of the the 30 10 US Sovereign debt yield curve, $TYX:$TNX, and the fall of the 30 Year US Government Bond, EDV, and the 10 Year US Government note, TLT, documents that US sovereign debt seigniorage is failing, resulting in the moneyness that came with US Federal Reserve credit expansion and anticipation of QE 2 is exhausted, resulting in retail, XRT, gold mining, GDX and airline, FAA, stocks falling lower. The utter decimation of the gold mining stocks, GDX, gives clear, cogent and convincing evidence that sovereign debt deleveraging and yen carry trade deleveraging of stocks has commenced.
Rally leaders are seen falling. The HUI Precious Metal Mining stocks, ^HUI, have been the great swing trade of the last decade. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index stocks, $CYC, have been the EFSF rally leader as is seen in the chart of these relative to the Dow, $CYC:$INDU. And the Russell 2000 Growth Shares, IWO, have been the US Dollar liquidity rally leaders; but having manifesting bearish engulfing relative to the Russell 2000 Value Shares, IWO:IWN, suggest that the growth shares will be leading the Russell 2000, IWM, lower.
In contrast to the rising European shares, the chart of the Nasdaq 100, QTEC, showing a week loss of 3.2%, suggests that a rally high has been achieved.
VII … News of the day
General Electric, GE, jumped 7.1% to close at 19.74 to give kudos for the appointment of GE’s CEO Jeffrey Immelt to to replace Paul Volcker as head of President Obama’s outside panel of economic advisers. GE is long known as a derivatives hedge fund and major recipient of Quantative Easing I stimulus funds. Mr. Immelt is a member of the board of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The “thumbs up” chart pattern gives market participant recognition and approval to the announcement that the remainer of President Obama’s term in office will be one of global corporatism, characterised by total integration of business and government for the benefit of both government and global corporations.
Greece For You Blog relates Prime Minister Urges Single Economic Policy For Euro
Prime Minister George Papandreou on Friday presented arguments in favour of establishing a unified economic policy within the European Union, during a speech made to a Euro50 Group working dinner held in Athens.
"We are building something different in Greece. That is what Europe should do also, change things and take its fate into its own hands," Papandreou said during the meeting on the theme "Eurozone at a crossroads" taking place at the Megaron Concert Hall.
The Greek premier said that the economic crisis that hit Europe had revealed the weaknesses of the euro, showing that the common currency lacked a "master" and had no common finance ministry behind it.
He stressed the need for a strong model of economic governance in the EU in order to avert developments that, if allowed to unfold unchecked, would create irreparable problems. According to Papandreou, there had to be a shift toward a single economic policy for Europe and Greece was determined to support the "leap" that this would require.
Papandreou repeated his proposals in favour of issuing a eurobond, saying that it would be a "shame for Europe not to have this powerful tool".
The Greek prime minister said many people took a pessimistic view and considered Europe condemned to weakness and an inability to make decisions.
"To those and their arguments Greece counters with its own route, showing that nothing is impossible and nothing is preordained," he added.
He appeared confident that Europe would prove its critics wrong in the same way that Greece had proved wrong those that had written the country off the previous year.
Among Greece's achievements in 2010, Papandreou pointed to a reduction of the deficit by six percent of GDP and said that this was one of the reasons by the Eurogroup had decided to extend the repayment period for the Greek loans, along with the progress made in fiscal policy and other changes.
The Euro50 Group meeting was hosted in Athens by Labour and Social Insurance Minister Louka Katseli, who is a permanent member of the forum.
Commentary: The Greek premier in saying that the economic crisis that hit Europe had revealed the weaknesses of the euro, and showed that the common currency lacked a "master", and had no common finance ministry behind it, communicated important truths.
I envision not one, but two “masters” coming forth from failures of sovereign Treasury auctions. A Chancellor, that is a Sovereign, and a Banker, that is a Seignior will be rising to power in Europe. And Papandreou, communicated quite well there has to be a shift toward a single economic policy for Europe and Greece. The great "leap" he refers to will be be forthcoming very shortly.
There can be no national sovereignty without debt sovereignty. Strong regional economic governance will come forth as countries loose their sovereign debt seigniorage.
The Sovereign will be one who has credentials, such as having been awarded the Charlemagne Prize. One such as Herman van Rompuy, Angela Merkel or John Redwood or Tony Blair, will arise to provide leadership.
And a Banker, that is a Seignior, such as Wolfgang Schäuble, or Olli Rehn, or Jean-Claude Trichet, or Gordon Brown or Jose Manuel Barroso, or Giulio Tremonti or Jean-Claude Juncker or François Fillon or Nicolas Sarkozy or Christine Lagarde, will rise to provide credit.
Stocks: IDX, YAO, CHIX, EEB, UNG, GLD, UUP, GDX, PSCM, ZINCQ, CLF, TECK, WLL, BRNC, PDCE, CHIM, BHP, KOL, ACIZQ, POT, MOO, IWO, XME, IIIN, MEA, GSM, SCIN, X, XBI, BJK, ICLN, QCLN, XPH, AKRX, ATSG, ASR, GWR, VT, ACWI, FCX, KBH, LEN, XLF, EVX, NLC, FDN, GOOG, AMZN, ACTA, XOM, DIA, CVX, DIS, PSCT, IGN, XSD, NVDA, CY, PNQI