Investment report for Tuesday February 21, 2012
1) ... Introduction
The Euro was built without exits. New sovereign authority, coming through the ECB's debt swap proposal, as well as a second massive Greece bailout agreement, means that a Euro zone super state is rising to rule politically and economically, out of the sovereign debt woes of the profligate Mediterranean Sea nation of Greece. European Socialism, and Greek Socialism, were effectively terminated today. The traditional rule of law has been abrogated, and diktat is now the order of the day, calling for austerity and structural reforms, which will provide for regional security and stability.
Greece lost its debt sovereignty with the first bailout. Now Greece has traded its fiscal sovereignty for a second bailout. Guardian writes of Greece's sovereign restructuring, European monitors will move into Athens ministries. Regionalization is the new direction in globalism, as today's regional framework agreements have established a totalitarian collective in the Euro zone, where monetary cardinals under the monetary pope, Mario Draghi, will proceed with new monetary policy in the EU. Given the recent framework agreement for country debt brakes, as well as today's bailout, and ECB sovereign bond action, a EU fiscal union, to be overseen by budget commissioners, now complements the Euro currency.
Statism will likely be the next step forward in the New Europe, where regional stockholders exercise economic oversight over resources and manufacturing, as well as provide credit, as financial armageddon, that is a credit bust and financial collapse, is being held in abeyance, but cannot be avoided. Lacking any money good, diktat will be de rigueur, and used for both money and credit.
This second massive Greece Bailout ushers in the age of regional global governance to replace capitalism, where major world currencies and emerging market currencies will soon be turning lower as details of today's agreement unravel, when it becomes apparent that Greece is an insolvent nation and that its sovereign debt is unsustainable, as Open Europe writes Take III: Don't bore me with the details. Felix Salmon writes The Improbable Greece Plan. Greece's debt dynamics get even worse. But of course even with well-below-market interest rates, Greece is still never going to pay that money back. The cost of this plan is €130 billion right now, and €170 billion over three years, through the end of 2014; it just continues going up from there, with no end in sight. Remember that total Greek GDP, right now, is only about €220 billion and falling.
King World News relates Fears of debt contagion. These as well as fears of decreased growth, will cause disinvestment out of stocks and delveraging out of commodities, as fiat money dies globally. The EU Leader's framework agreements serve as the constitution for the New Europe, and usher in the ten toed kingdom of regional global governance, where the Beast Regime of Neoauthoritarianism, will be replacing the Banker Regime of Neoliberalism.
CNN Money reports Greece will avoid an outright default in the short run now that eurozone finance officials have signed off on a second bailout for the debt-stricken nation. But the rescue package worth €130 billion is contingent on a historic debt reduction agreement with private sector investors that must be approved before any bailout money can be released. If private sector investors sign off, Greece should be able to secure the funds it needs to make a €14.5 billion bond payment in March.
The terms of the private sector agreement include a write down of 53% on the face value of Greek government bonds, steeper than the previous 50% reduction agreed to in October. The proposal will now be presented to members of the Institute of International Finance, which represents the private sector. The IIF's full committee will review the details and make a decision "in accordance with their own individual processes," according to a statement. IIF director Charles Dallara said in an interview with CNN's Richard Quest that he expects a high participation rate, but he acknowledged that each investor has the right to make their own decision.
Under the terms of the agreement, Greece's debt load will be cut by about €107 billion, equal to 50% of the nation's estimated economic output for the year. It will also reduce the amount of debt Greece needs to refinance over the coming years by roughly €150 billion, according to the IIF. In addition to the write down, investors would exchange existing bonds for securities with lower interest rates. At the same time, investors would receive securities that could increase in value as the Greek economy improves, and EU officials would kick in a €30 billion "sweetener." According to the IIF, the agreement represents the largest sovereign debt restructuring in history. Overall, the deal will result in losses of 74% for the private sector, according to Marc Chandler, head of global currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The concern is that a large number of investors will balk at the deal, forcing the terms to be renegotiated. That could delay the just-approved bailout and put Greece back at risk of a disorderly default. The Greek government is expected to pass legislation this week that would force investors who reject the agreement to take losses on Greek bonds issued under domestic law, which make up the majority of the nation's debt load. The presence of so-called collective action clauses would not qualify as a "credit event," according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. But the association suggested that activating the clauses could trigger credit default swaps, a form of insurance that investors use to protect against a default.
Bloomberg reports Greek rescue leaves Europe default risk alive. OfTwoMinds writes Do We Really Know Greece's Default Will Be Orderly
Tyler Durden writes IIF's Dallara Warns Holdout Greek Bondholders Could Kill "Successful" Greek Deal. And Tyler Durden also relates that Open Europe writes Many questions around the second Greek bailout remain unanswered. We're still trawling through the responses, analysis and documents to come out of the meeting, meaning there are likely to be plenty more questions and uncertainties to come. The one thing that is clear is that even if this bailout is 'successful', it will set Greece up for a decade of painful austerity and low growth leading to social unrest, while the eurozone will have to provide on-going transfers to help it keep its head above water. Sorry to be killjoys but as Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager put it, the deal isn't "something to cheer about". And Tyler Durden writes As Greece Deems 66% CAC Bondholder Acceptance Sufficient, Has It Threatened To Scuttle Its Bailout All Over Again? And Tyler Durden writes Goldman's Greek deal summary: increased likelihood of CDS trigger and CAC use will lead to volatility. And Tyler Durden writes Second Greek Re-Bailout: terms, conditions and next steps. And Tyler Durden write A European, US, Japanese and increasingly global debt crisis will not be solved by creating more debt and making taxpayers pay odious debts incurred through massively irresponsible lending practices of international banks.
Soon a New Charlemagne will rise to rule the Euro zone, where Germany will be preeminent, as a type of revived Roman Empire that governs the European continent.
The EU ECB IMF Troika is conquering and establishing nations, establishing leadership, and exercising direct control over the profligate periphery nations, particularly Greece. The ECB's and Angela Merkel's iron will, is rising supreme over clay democratic processes. Bloomberg reports Merkel as Debt Crisis Iron Lady Bucks German Street on Greek Aid. Angela Merkel is having a Margaret Thatcher moment. Having spent six years in office defying comparison with Britain's first woman prime minister, Merkel is being likened to Thatcher as she steers Europe's response to the financial crisis with demands for debt reduction and tighter economic controls. Media including the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the newspaper of record in Germany's financial hub, dub her "Europe's Iron Lady." Strengthened by record-low joblessness at home, Merkel has rejected calls to either cut Greece loose from the euro area or ease her conditions for aid. By bucking the German street and steering the middle course, she is gambling that policy makers will continue to prevent a euro meltdown, helping her win re- election next year and match Thatcher's third term. "If Merkel were to go into elections with a collapsed euro zone she'd have a lot of difficulty winning," Giles Merritt, head of Friends of Europe, a Brussels-based research group that promotes debate on the European Union, said in an interview. "Finally her statesman side is kicking in
2) ,.. The ECB By Changing The Rule Of Law, Asserts Itself As The Euro's Sovereign Authority … A Region Of Global Governance Arises Out Of The Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis
Ongoing political conflicts in Europe may mean that Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy will not be able to stay in office, but this does not mean the destruction of the Euro zone, as fate is effecting a global coup d etat, through the destruction of fiat money.
The death of fiat money commenced in July 2011 with world currencies, DBV, and emerging market currencies, CEW, trading lower. This has caused the investment, economic and political tectonic plates to shift, with the result that a Euro zone authoritarian economic and political structure is rising, to govern those nations that use the Euro currency.
Greece has lost its monetary sovereignty, and Portugal, Italy and Spain have as well, this being acknowledged by ongoing sovereign debt ratings downgrades by rating agencies and increasing oversight by the EU ECB IMF Troika. Investment capital is being destroyed by debt deflation, that is currency deflation; and now, political capital is rising in its place.
The dynamo of choice provided by the Milton Friedman Free To Choose Script, that governed for the last forty years is history. Now the dynamo of diktat, implied in the 1974 Clarion Call by the Club of Rome for regional global governance, is rising to govern human economic and political activities.
Fate is the order of the day, which through creative destruction is terminating Neoliberalism and producing Neoauthoritarianism. There is no human action, there is only destiny destroying choice and democracy, as neo liberal credit fails. Libertarianism will not see the light of day; there will not be any Freedom, Free Enterprise and a Free Monetary System, as envisioned by Hayek, Rothbard and Mises; such things are simply mirages on the Neoauthoritarian Desert of the Real.
Those who taken the Red Pill, know that the debt economy of capitalism is coming to an end, with the result that the dynamos of growth and profit are failing. The recent driver of investment reality has been the European Central Bank's LTRO, facility which has provided cheap three-year liquidity to banks, which in turn has fueled fiat asset purchases across the board including Portugal, Italy and Spain Sovereign Debt.
The race to debase will soon have its logical conclusion: competitive currency devaluation will recommence. Tyler Durden writes The Marginal Utility Of Central Bank Intervention Is Rapidly Diminishing. Yes, the power of neo liberal finance will soon be exhausted, this will be seen in the chart of ITLY, EMFN, EMMT, EMIF, KRE, PKB, RZV, where the debt of ITLY will likely be sustained by the ECB's LTRO 1 and LTRO 2, yet, the rally in the current safe haven stocks fizzles. The reach of ECB credit liquidity will soon fail to continue supporting S&P Materials, MXI, and S&P Global Financials, IXG, as is seen in the chart of SPY, MXI, IXG.
Political capital will soon command economic transactions, as the dynamos of regional security and stability gain traction, providing order out of chaos. Investment capital that fueled growth and profit will literally be washed away into the pit of financial abandon as regional global governance replaces capitalism.
The loss of debt sovereignty is a catalyst for the formation of a European Super State based upon unified fiscal rules in the Leaders Fiscal Pact, which provides for a debt brake in each EU country, and now the New Greek Bailout, and the rise of the ECB as sovereign authority over countries that use the Euro currency, with its ECB Debt Swap Initiative of which Open Europe writes Decoding the ECB bond swap
Bob Janjuah writes in Zero Hedge, Monetary Anarchy. The ECB by declaring on its own and without judicial or parliamentary review, a swapping out of their Greek debt for new Greek debt, that is not subject to any collective action clause, is as Mark Grant writes, Opens Pandora's Box. Ambrose Evans Pritchard describes the ECB's actions as legerdemain, saying the European Central Bank has taken action to insure that it suffers no loss on its Greek holdings, automatically reducing other creditors to junior status; this sets a precedent for Ireland, Portugal. Spain, and Italy.
The ECB in announcing that it is swapping out their Greek debt for new Greek debt that is not subject to any collective action clause, establishes a Euro zone monetary union, to complement the debt union, that was established when EU leaders announced the first Greek bailout agreement in May 2010.
Regional trade imbalances is another catalyst for a Federal Europe. Germany exports products to the peripheral European countries, which run trade deficits. Greece has a trade deficit of about 10% of GDP. Greece must have a trade surplus if public debt as well as business credit and stock leverage is to be reduced. Until Greece runs a trade surplus, Greece cannot get their government and private budgets under control. Greece must cut its fiscal expenditures and/or raise taxes. As Greece does this, the Greek economy will continue to shrink, making it more difficult buy foreign goods. This leads to a deflationary spiral. And that same deflationary spiral will spin up to take in all of Europe.
These two catalysts, the loss of debt sovereignty and regional trade imbalances, will cause political leaders to meet in even more summits, waive even more national sovereignty, and establish a European federal political union, and establish the ECB, or the Bundesbank, as the Euro's Bank.
The ECB by declaring on its own and without judicial or parliamentary review, a swapping out of their Greek debt for new Greek debt that is not subject to any collective action clause, establishes Greece as a client state within a Euro zone region of global governance. Julia Amalia Heyer in Der Spiegel A Political Establishment In Freefall, Greece Lurches to Left Amid Radical Austerity, communicates that Greece is the Eurozone's first colony.
Mark Grant of Out Of The Box writes in Zero Hedge For Greece Tomorrow Has Arrived. Greece will shortly be placed into "Default" by S&P and Fitch which will trigger default language in all kinds of securitizations including Greece's $90Bn in derivatives and may cause disgorgement from accounts that are forbidden to hold defaulted bonds. After the country has been placed into "Default" the banks will soon follow and once again there will be all kinds of consequences in interbank lending, collateral agreements, securitizations, et al from all of this. The CDS contracts for Greece may or may not function as they stand but, as I am quite certain will happen, not enough bond holders tender their bonds for the new debt so that Greece will pass the "Collective Action Clause" which will certainly trigger CDS in my opinion and if not will show the fallacy of that market. The structure of the deal puts the IMF/EU/ECB clearly in control of the finances of Greece so they have replaced some sort of Czar with the bureaucrats of the Troika and the country no longer will control its own finances as they traded away their sovereignty for cash. In fact, an escrow account will be set up for Greece which will be controlled by the Troika and Greece is being forced to change their Constitution pledging to pay their creditors before providing any money for the country. A quick study of the math reveals that Greece will get about 19 cents on the Dollar and the rest of the money is the sovereign nations of Europe paying back their banks with the money they have supposedly lent to Greece. Greece is now nothing more than a conduit for the nations of Europe to pay back their own financial institutions. Now we will see if the Parliaments in Europe will go along with this plan as many still have to approve it and a careful reading of the math involved here may be troubling for some governments especially Finland and the Netherlands. We will also see, with Greek elections looming, how the citizens react to all of this either in the polling booths or in the streets as an additional $4Bn of spending cuts have been mandated by the Troika and they state that the money will not be paid to Greece until they are implemented which must be by the end of February.
The total outstanding debt for Greece will now rise to $1.270Tn as new debt pays off old debt in a country with substantial negative growth so that the real situation, regardless of what we are told, worsens. In early May Greece faces its next bond payments so there may be a re-do for all of this in several months' time. If Greece is actually going to get the next round of the bailout then the other side of the coin is the increased debt being taken on by the other countries in Europe which could cause more downgrades as the new debt to GDP numbers are assessed.
Financial armageddon, that is a world wide credit bust and global financial collapse is coming. This Eurodämmerung, a Götterdämmerung, that is a clash of the current sovereign authorities with investors, will destroy credit and money, as they have been known. Out of the ensuing chaos, Fate is directing that regional global governance be established.
Fate has directed that kings have ruled mankind throughout history; these have included Nebuchadnezzar ruling Babylon; Cyrus and Cyrus and Darius ruling Merdo Persia; Charlemagne ruling Rome; Tony Blair ruling Great Britain, Angela Merkel ruling the EU, and George Bush, The Decider, ruling America with Unilateral Authority. Soon ten kings will come to rule, each in his own regional power base. Most recently two iron kingdoms, the combine of the UK and European rule, and the US Hegemony, have governed the world; their power is now flowing into a ten toed kingdom of regional global governance.
Fate, not any human action, will bring forth a revived Roman Empire, that is a German led Europe. In the supranational New Europe, national sovereignty will be seen as a relic of a bygone era.
At the appropriate time fate will open the curtains, and onto the world's stage will step the most credible of Europe's political leaders, the Sovereign. He will be accompanied by Europe's banker, the Seignior. These will have have EU wide sovereign authority. The Little Authority will work behind the scenes in regional framework agreements to change our times and laws. The people will be amazed by this, and place their faith and trust in the Sovereign; they will give their allegiance to his diktak.
Life in Europe can now be characterized as a totalitarian collective. Totalitarian collectivism is the EU's future. European Socialism will die in 2012. Diktat will provide seigniorage, that is moneyness, to replace the seigniorage of national treasury bonds. Diktat will become a currency, that is a payment used in the exchange of goods or services.
The seigniorage of fiat money is failing, and the seigniorage of diktat is rising in its place, as is seen in the rise of power of the EU ECB IMF Troika to appoint technocratic government in Greece and Italy as well as in today's massive bailout agreement.
The Beast regime of Neoauthoritarianism, is rising to replace the Banker regime of Neoliberalism. This monster of statism and collectivism is rising from the profligate Mediterranean countries of Italy and Greece. The Beast's seven heads are rising to occupy in all mankind's institutions, and its ten horns are rising to govern in all of the world's ten regions. The Beast regime is to replace the Banker regime of Neoliberalism, The Beast regime is coming like a terminator that can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until mankind is totally dominated and subdued.
3) … Stocks and currencies traded volatily today.
European Shares, VGK, the National Bank of Greece, NBG, Greece, GREK, traded lower, as European Financials, EUFN, world financial institutions, IXG, traded higher on the Eurozone bailout news. Energy shares, PSCE, WCAT, XLE, and IEZ, traded higher on higher oil, USO, which caused airline shares, FAA, to tumble.
Asia shares, EPP, traded higher on today's higher Euro, FXE, led by Australia Small Caps, KROO, Australia, EWA, and Vietnam, VNM. China Financials, CHIX, China Industrials, CHII. Phillippines, EPHE; but Emerging Asia, GMF, traded lower.
Argentina banks led Argentina, ARGT, higher.
India Small Caps, SCIF, led World Small Caps, VSS, and Emerging Market Small Caps, EWX, higher.
Uranium Miners, URA, Copper Miners, COPX, Rare Earth Miners, REMX, Aluminum Producers, ALUM, Metal Manufacturing, XME, Steel, SLX, S&P Mining, MXI, and Automobiles, CARZ, and VROM, traded higher.
The chart of the Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index, $CYC, shows a topping out.
Shares trading lower included PSP, FAA, PSCI, ITB, XBI, XRT, RZV, XSD, IYR, QABA, KRE, REM, FNIO, ROOF, REZ, IYT, EMIF, CVCO, XPH, IHE, XLP. PXN, Annaly, Capital Management, NLY, a leading Mortgage REIT, traded lower.
Bespoke Investment Blog writes Dow Transports Diverge From Industrials The ongoing trade lower in Transportation,IYT, as well as Utilities, XLU, provide non confirming Dow Theory logic that the market and Industrials, IYJ, will be headed lower.
Growth stocks from this Finviz Screener of 50 Growth Stocks turning lower today included GPC, MU, TSm, NKE, AMGN, NTGR, LPL, INTC.
All of these automobile dealers seen in this Finviz Screener of Automobile Dealers turned lower including KMX, SAH, ABG, RMT, LAD, GPI.
Chemical stocks from this Finviz Screener of 20 Chemical Manufacturers turning lower included IPAS, WLK, KRA, LYB, HUN, OM, ASH.
Almost all of the stocks seen in this Finviz Screener of Small Cap Technology Stocks turned lower.
Value stocks seen in this Finviz Screener of 50 Value Stocks turning lower included BC, THO, CCO, MGM, RCL, WGO, URI, DUF, CUGW.
Commodities, DBC, USCI, blasted strongly higher. Base Metals, DBB, rose with Aluminum, JJU, and Copper, JJC, rising strongly.. The always volatile Silver, SLV, rose, as did Gold, GLD. A rise in Oil, USO, caused Gasoline, UGA, to rise. Timber, CUT, rose, which moved paper manufactuers, WOOD, higher.
As currencies begin to trade lower, Commodities, DBC, with the exception of gold, GLD, unleaded gas, UGA, and oil, USO, will trade lower again, led so by JJA, DBB, CUT, and SLV. This will be seen in the chart of DBC, JJA, DBB, CUT, SLV, GLD, USO
The US Dollar, $USD, UUP, traded lower, as the Russian Ruble, FXRU, the Swiss Franc, FXF, the Swedish Krona, FXS, and the Euro, FXE, rose, taking emerging market currencies, CEW, higher. World Major Currencies, DBV, traded lower. The USD/JPY continued higher, and it inverse, the JYN, traded lower.
Junk bonds, JNK, International Corporate Bonds, PICB, Emerging Market Bonds, EMB, World Government Bonds, BWX, traded higher on world central bank liquidity and carry trade investing.
4) … As debt contagion spreads an competitive currency devaluation picks up steam, Canada, Mexico and the US will be regionalized into a North American Union, and be known as CanMexAmerica.
Greg Quinn of Bloomberg writes Credit And Commodities Drive Canada "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king, and that is Canada right now," said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada Global Asset Management, which oversees about C$250 billion ($252 billion). "The two big things driving Canada are credit and commodities," and "we have avoided some of the real headaches that the heavily indebted countries have encountered."
Canada's currency will trade close to parity with the U.S. dollar into next year, based on the median estimate of 24 responses to a Bloomberg News survey. Two-year bond yields will remain below 2 percent, according to a separate Bloomberg survey, as inflation slows and the government reduces its C$31 billion deficit, which officials are projecting will be eliminated by the 2015-2016 fiscal year.
Record Debt Purchases. Foreign purchases of Canadian debt have set records in the past three years, including a tenfold jump in money-market investment last year to C$32 billion and C$96 billion of bonds in 2010, according to Statistics Canada. Pacific Investment Management Co., the world's largest bond-fund manager, is betting on the country's longer-term debt because of Canada's stability and its "strong resource sector," which makes it "less sensitive to shocks," Ed Devlin, who manages Pimco's $11 billion Canadian portfolio, said in a Feb. 10 interview. The world's 10th largest economy, Canada has the third-largest pool of oil reserves, and, according to a 2010 speech by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, is the biggest producer of potash, second largest supplier of nickel and third largest provider of aluminum.
World's Soundest Banks. Canada's banks were named the soundest in the world for the fourth consecutive year in 2011 by the World Economic Forum, and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney was chosen in November by leaders of the Group of 20 nations to head the Financial Stability Board. The board is charged with overseeing efforts to write new rules for international finance to help avoid another global credit crunch. The International Monetary Fund projects Canada will lead the G-7 with a gross debt-to-output ratio of 73 percent at the end of 2016, lower than 75 percent for Germany (IGS%DEU), 115 percent for the U.S. (IGS%USA) and 253 percent for Japan (IGS%JPN).
Canada's central bank dropped a "conditional commitment"to keep its benchmark overnight lending rate at a record low 0.25 percent in 2010, and Carney, 46, has held it at 1 percen tsince September of that year, the longest pause since the 1950s. In the same period, eleven of the 20 biggest economies have cut rates, and the U.S., Japan, U.K., Switzerland and European Central Bank adopted or extended emergency stimulus or lending in the last year.
All this has supported Canada's dollar, which has appreciated 5.7 percent against the U.S. currency since Sept. 1, 2010. Canadian government bonds have returned 8.5 percent in the same period through Feb. 17, compared with 6.6 percent for U.S. Treasuries.
Financial armageddon will be the genesis for regionalization of North American resources into a collective hive for the security and stability of the North American Continent. The Canadian Energy Income Companies, ENY, and all Canadian Energy Production Companies, will be regionalized and overseen by public private partnerships, where stakeholders from government and industry meet to oversee the production and provide for credit needs of companies such as BTE, CVE, NXY, PVX, SU, TLM, ENB, TRP