theyenguy's  Instablog

I …  Introduction

This week the short seller had good rewards with SJH +13 and Europe EPV +12, 

These ETFs fell rewarding the short seller: Alerian energy partnership AMJ -3%,  Small cap consumer discretionary XLYS -6%, housing XHB -6%, solar TAN -7%, Spain EWP -9%, European Financials EUFN -8%, and small cap pure value stocks RZV -8%.

These long with these ETFs produced profits:  EWV +6% , the Euro EUO +8%, small cap value SJH +13, Europe EPV +12,  and volatility VXX +11.

Municipal Bonds MUB, and California Bonds CMF, are trading strongly with 20 to 30 Year US Government debt.

But, Emerging Market Bonds EMB, Zeroes ZROZ, and Junk Bonds JNK, have been weakened enough to justify going short at this time.

Preferred financiual  PGF and Ford Motor Credit FCZ,  should both be sold short at this time;  the latter is not an ETF but serves as a proxy for credit services

And one inverse Debt ETF to go long very, very soon will be TMV ….. TMV.

II … Short sellers were rewarded this week

One Commodity ETF to short at this time is Tin JJT ….. Tin JJT -0.4%.

Two Financial ETFs to short are PGF and FCZ ….. Preferred financiual PGF , -0%, and Ford Motor Credit FCZ, -0%; the latter is not an ETF but serves as a proxy for credit services; both should be sold at this time.. 

Seven ETFs to short are AMJ,  XLYS, XHB, TAN, EWP, EUFN, RZV ….. Alerian energy partnership AMJ -3%,  Small cap consumer discretionary XLYS -6%, housing XHB -6%, solar TAN -7%, Spain EWP -9%, European Financials EUFN -8%, and small cap pure value stocks RZV -8%.

Five 200% inverse ETFs to go long: EWV, EUO, SJH, EPV, VXX ….. Japan EWV +6% , the Euro EUO +8%, small cap value SJH +13, Europe EPV +12,  and volatility VXX +11. Of the 200% inverse ETFs, SJH and EPV, are likely to be the top two best performing ETFs; and are my top two choices for going short the equity market.

Five Debt ETFs can be viewed together: MUB, CMF, EMB, ZROZ, JNK …… Municipal Bonds MUB, and California Bonds CMF, are trading strongly with 20 to 30 Year US Government debt.

But, Emerging Market Bonds EMB, Zeroes ZROZ, and Junk Bonds JNK, have been weakened enough to justify going short at this time.

And one Debt ETF to go long will be TMV ….. TMV.

A reflective mind might find the Fred Sheehan Friday, March 12, 2010 Safehaven.com article Municipal Deflation: Consequences of the Greatest Speculation interesting reading.

Perhaps next week, on August 18th, 2010, after the Obama Administration holds its “Conference On The Future of Housing Finance” on August 17, 2010, then maybe the interest rate on the US 10 Year Note, TNX, and the interest rate on the 30 Year US Government Bond, TYX,  will started to rise, causing the ten Year Note, IEF, and the 30 Year US Government Bond, TLT, to fall; and the 300% inverse of the 30 Year Government Bond, TMV, to rise.

One can view the Yahoo Finance chart of debt, BND, IEF, LQD, EMB, MUB, CMF, JNK and TLT or the Finviz Screener of Debt or the Google Finance chart of BND, IEF, LQD, EMB, MUB, JNK and TLT, to view daily bond trading activity.

The Yahoo Finance five chart LAG, BND, and AGG, shows a comparison of all three comprehensive bond ETFs. The Finviz monthly chart of AGG shows three white soldiers and a lollipop hanging man candlestick suggesting a market top is being made in bonds.

Of the three summary bond ETFs, LAG, BND, and AGG, LAG may be the first to turn down.

The spread between DXKSX and DXKLX  and the spread between TMV and TMF serve as the canaries in the bond market coal mine, relating when to go short US Government Bonds by going long with TMV.

I personally am invested in gold coins. It was a buy and hold decision made long ago, its proven to have been a rewarding  investment strategy Hard Assets Investor reports Gold Widens Its Edge Over European Currencies

III. One can follow these ETFs daily on theyenguy's chart site:

I provide lots of further commentary on theyenguy's chart site:15 ETFs to sell short and 7 ETFs to buy long for a debt deflationary bear market