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Jack Lifton
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Jack Lifton is an Independent consultant and commentator, focusing on the market fundamentals and future end use trends of the rare metals. He specializes in the sourcing of nonferrous strategic metals and on due diligence studies of businesses in that space. His work includes exploration,... More
My company:
Technology Metals Research
My blog:
The Jack Lifton Report
  • A First Report from the 6th International Conference on Rare Earth Development and Application & China Rare Earth Summit 2010 0 comments
    Aug 4, 2010 10:45 AM | about stocks: IQ

    I am in Beijing where I am attending and have spoken at the Chinese Society of Rare Earths now regular annual conference for 2010.I was honored to be one of only three American guest speakers. The other two were America's most well known academic experts on rare earths, Professor Karl Geschneider of the Ames Laboratory at the Iowa State University and Professor William J. Evans of the University of California, Irvine. 

    The conference has 300 attendees who are a comprehensive group representing the academic, business, and governmental sectors of the Chinese rare earth research (academic and business), development, mining, refining, and end use manufacturing industries.

    I was asked to speak about "The American Perspective of the Rare Earth Supply Issue." My powerpoint presentation and a commentary will be posted shortly on the web site, Technology Metals Research, www.techmetalsresearch.com, which I co-edit with Dr. Gareth Hatch.

    Although most of the nearly 100 speakers in the 6 technical tracks and most of the 222 papers listed on the program were highly technical there were interspersed among them some that were purely descriptive of mines, processes, and imprtant sectors dependent on the rare earth metals such as permanent magnets, batteries, phosphors, wind energy generation, and other clean-tech/green-tech applications.

    My Australian colleagues, Dudley Kingsnorth, of IMCOA and Judith Chegwidden of Roskill Information Services both were also invited guest speakers and Ms Chegwidden was the moderator of the session of the introductory session at which I spoke. I beieve that they will post their talks on their resepctive web sites soon.

    I am here in China to find out what the Chinese rare earth industry is doing and where it is going. I have a scientific background, and I was once a researcher myself. i also worked in product development with the rare earths for phosphors and batteries, so I was interested in and able to understand most, if not all, of many of the technical papers I heard. But my biggest surprises came from the survey papers on clean-tech/green-tech applications of the rare earths.

    It is obvious from the vantage of the rare earths' sector in China that China is simply racing ahead of the rest of the world in volume production as well as development of state-of-the-art clean tech and green tech products.

    For example it was pointed out that China built and installed 13 gigawatts of wind turbine electric generating capacity last year using rare earth permanent magnets for efficiency and low maintenance. The astounding prediction was made that by 2020 China will install 330 gigawatts more of wind power each 1.5 megawatts of which will require one metric ton of neodymium iron boron magnet alloy, which if it contains 34% of neodymium, would mean that the Chinese wind power industry would need 70,000 tons of neodymium, approximately 3 1/2 times the 2008 production of that metal, all as new added material, between now and 2018-19.

    I plan to write much more on this topic during the next few weeks, but I believe that the trend is clear. China will be the driver for, and the home of, the most demand in the world for the rare earth metals from now on.

    There wasn't much talk about Molycorp in China other than to hope that if it gets into production Chinese customers will have an opportunity to buy its products. The only non-Chinese rare earth mining venture present was Great Western Minerals Group, (GWG.V) of Canada. Its chairman gave a talk on his "mine to market" strategy, and he told me he was there both because he was invited and in order to continue negotiations for a strategic alliance with a Chinese refiner on an African project the goal of which is to supply GW's UK magnet alloy plant, Less Common Metals, with feedstock metals for its operations from GW's South African venture at Steenkampskraal.

    Japanese companies and academics were well represented and there were even French and Russian miners and refiners. 

    I was disappointed that there were so few Americans and as for the American media I saw only NPR's Marketplace and the New York Times' Asia correspondent although only the NPR reporter interveiwed me.

    If the rare earth supply issue is so important to America's security why then do so few Americans and almost no American media come to the world's premier rare earth informational event. It is most likely because China is the center of the world rare earth industry in all of its aspects.

    The Chinese and Japanese magnet industries both need heavy rare earths. They may even need light, imported,non-Chinese, rare earths sometime before 2015, but I think it is clear that after 2015 they will both  need heavy rare earths from outside of China.. Japan, by contrast, will need both types of rare earths from the outside by 2015 if Chinese demand should exceed or meet its domestic supply capability by then, which is probable, so that China no longer is willinmg to export rare earths..

    If all roads lead to Rome then certainly the home of all metals is now China.

     


    Disclosure: I own 25,000 shares of GWG.V

    Stocks: IQ
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