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I used to run a limited partnership, boutique hedge fund in the 90s. Retired in 2000 and moved from New York City to Toronto, Canada, got married, raised a family and basically settled down. After a few years in Toronto, my wife got tired of the city’s 8 months of cold weather and insisted that... More
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  • The Impending Move In Apple (Part 3) 52 comments
    Aug 28, 2013 9:31 AM | about stocks: AAPL

    Technically, Apple's chart is looking real good...

    On the PnF chart, thanks to Syria, Apple not only switched back into Os, it printed 5 Os...The best analogy I can give is the spin cycle in the clothes dryer...If you know what I mean...By pulling back, AAPL was able to squeeze out a lot of the froth that was built into the stock. I was hoping for a 4-box reversal and the stock Gods rewarded us with a 5-box reversal and with the potential for another box or two...LOL! As you can see from this screen shot, this is one beautiful looking chart...It is setting up for a strong up move...

    (click to enlarge)

    And then on the Candlestick chart, AAPL's 50 day sma is less than $15 away from colliding with its 200 day sma and light up the spark that will cause ignition...The two lines should intersect within the next 8-10 trading sessions...and the RSI has also come down from nosebleed territory...

    (click to enlarge)

    No need to panic...but rejoice, yes!

    :-)

    kp

    DISCLAIMER: All postings made here are strictly for my personal record keeping and in no way, shape or form, am I even remotely suggesting others to follow my Buy and Sell moves. Trading options is definitely not for the faint of heart as one's portfolio can move up, or down, anywhere between 10%-30% during a single trading day. Feel free to follow my progress here, but PLEASE do not follow my moves. However, if, in spite of all my exhortations, should you decide to do so, be advised that you, and ONLY YOU will be responsible for any losses that you may suffer...In other words, the onus is strictly on you. On the other hand, if the move(s) result in a profit for you, I am open to discussing a split. ;-)

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL, SUNE, SPWR, TSLA.

    Stocks: AAPL
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Comments (52)
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  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP, Thanks for the insight. However, I always get confused as someone might argue that looking at pnf chart, it looks more like a HIGH POLE warning. Also, with this Syria tensions in the mix, it makes me feel bearish instead of bullish. Also, with solar sell off I have learnt one thing is no matter how good is the company or stock, if the overall market goes down, the stock follows the trend.
    28 Aug 2013, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Please do keep in mind that prior to the pull back, this move was considered highly desirable by this blog...so basically, the stock acted as per the script envisioned by the blog...

     

    All extraneous noise that you refer to, is just that...noise.

     

    :-)

     

    kp
    29 Aug 2013, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    the last 10 minutes of trading pretty much gave up on all the gains. Its still weak on daily. The trend is up but I agree with the concerns coming up in the next few days. FOMC meeting in Sep, Syrian war and also the possibility that Apple may not come out with a new product or investors may not like it. It will be interesting to see how this trades as we get close to September 10th. I m not sure if we will see the 550 levels given the negative events to come.
    28 Aug 2013, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Yesterday, in spite of all the doom and gloom, Tesla still closed up.

     

    What I am pointing out is that when a stock is in a vey strong uptrend, as I believe APPL is, it ends up playing to its own tune...it tends to ignore outside noise...Yesterday, AAPL went down, not because of the Syrian crisis, but because it was expected of it...it used the noise as an excuse to do what it really needed to do in order to make itself ready for a BIG up move...

     

    All imho...

     

    :-)
    kp
    29 Aug 2013, 01:29 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    KP I totally agree with your assessment. Yes Syria, Fed, debt ceiling, all others are just an excuse. In my opinion the market will go down even more before it goes back up, what I was wondering was that whether AAPL would follow that move or not in the near term.

     

    After reading your post, I think I have found the answer :)) I was very shocked about TSLA and how it was up when everything was coming down. Stocks use the daily events as an excuse to go thru their cycles.

     

    Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts here, me and the rest of the folks here greatly appreciate it.
    29 Aug 2013, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    KP Take a look at GOOG PNF chart. Maybe a new bearish trend is on the way? I speculate this as the money from google is shifting to AAPL. What are your thoughts? Thanks
    31 Aug 2013, 04:37 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    this guy was correct earlier. Let's see if he gets it right again.
    http://read.bi/19QOCKZ. I guess he doesn't use pnf chart :-)
    29 Aug 2013, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I.B., Thought you may find this interesting...A piece on Jeffrey Gundlach in Fortune magazine titled: Apple is "dead money" says porn-loving bond king.

     

    A direct quote from the article: The last time we wrote about the controversial founder of DoubleLine Capital he was telling a group of investment bankers that he had lost faith in the Apple's (AAPL) ability to wow customers and was shorting the stock.

     

    That was in May 2012, when Apple was trading for just over $540 a share. The next day the stock began a run that took it to over $700.

     

    http://bit.ly/1aftIZV

     

    Let's see how the stock trades this week and next...LOL!

     

    kp
    3 Sep 2013, 01:35 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    KP It looks like a flag pattern is forming on APPL, now we have turned to X's. Also the 50day MA should intersect the 200 day ma this week. What is your thoughts? Do you see anymore downside at this point? Thank you

     

    Also, GOOG just bounced back from the support line.
    3 Sep 2013, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » MK, Yes, AAPL's PnF chart has now formed the flag pattern...when it comes out of it, it should be a very strong move...

     

    Thanks for bringing GOOG to my attention...had it broken through its Bullish Support Line, it would have been a good PUT candidate...

     

    Good to see you taking advantage of the PnF charts...

     

    BTW, I do want you to keep in mind that no matter what, you must NEVER try to hit a grand slam home run...in other words, make sure you ONLY buy options with a number of months to expirations...

     

    kp
    4 Sep 2013, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Spak007
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP, just wondering what your opinion is on some things:

     

    -seems there is a lot of resistance at the $500 level as someone previously mentioned, Apple hasn't been able to get back over that level even with markets moving higher, the US Apple invite, and this surprise China invite to some announcement (whether this is for the new lower cost iPhone or China Mobile deal or something entirely different remains to be seen). Does this appear to just be consolidation?
    -When this golden cross is acheived, if Apple some how does not meet the publics expectations with their new product(s), do you still feel we can have a strong move up? Won't negative public sentiment in this scenario outweigh the golden cross and therefore retrace back down?

     

    I understand there are a lot of "what if's" but it is very puzzling that we have not run up with the market and good news, so any insight is greatly appreciated. I am holding Dec. 500 calls, sitting on some profit and nervously wondering which direction its going to go from this announcement! Thanks!!
    5 Sep 2013, 06:05 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Spak,

     

    What you are seeing is just that: consolidation...I would not worry too much about it...Apple has every intention of going above the $500 price and it will succeed...

     

    As for the so-called "Golden Cross..." Please do keep in mind that sometimes the stock reacts a few days after the 50 day sma crosses the 200 day sma and sometimes it makes an upward move before the cross...

     

    Hope none of you guys have bought AAPL September options in anticipation of hitting a Grand Slam, out of the ballpark, home run...

     

    Patience is the key...

     

    kp
    5 Sep 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP,

     

    Thanks for the comment. I'm just too nervous so sold my calls for little profit. I'll be watching this stock on Tuesday for the direction & then jump in. First timer with options so playing it safe. :-)
    5 Sep 2013, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Spak007
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for your analysis KP. One last question on this and its based soley on opinion..... you are obviously bullish for the longer term but what do you think is going to happen come Tuesday? Any guesses on what they will announce and the effect on the stock? Thanks as always!
    6 Sep 2013, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » WSJ is reporting that Apple has signed up China Mobile...

     

    "Apple Inc. AAPL +0.60% is preparing to ship iPhones to China Mobile Ltd., people familiar with the matter say, an arrangement that would significantly increase Apple's distribution in the world's biggest smartphone market.

     

    A deal would cap years of negotiations between the two companies. Apple has tried to hammer out an agreement with China's largest wireless carrier that has 700 million subscribers, seven times the size of the U.S.'s largest carrier Verizon Wireless. Greater China is Apple's third biggest market after the U.S. and Europe in terms of sales."

     

    http://on.wsj.com/1dOq4Xq

     

    Again...This news was baked in the chart weeks before WSJ learnt about it...

     

    :-)

     

    kp
    6 Sep 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Spak007
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    KP, we have the golden cross and I am sure you have seen Apple with its down move today, buying opp?
    10 Sep 2013, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP--

     

    What do you think about the recent launch and stock being down almost 3%? Do you still expect a run up to 580 levels this month? Please share your thoughts.
    Thanks
    10 Sep 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP--

     

    Whats your thoughts about the APPL Chart now? I know you are bullish in the long term overall, but Im trying to better understand the charts. The way Im reading the PnF chart it is showing bearish and it might go down couple more 0's and the upside limit after that would be 488. Of course if a china Mobile deal is announced or Ican has a lucnh or dinner and sends a tweet its a different story lol.

     

    Honestly, I got lost after the big sell off on disastrous china launch. I dont know how to read this chart.. Appreciate if you share your thoughts.

     

    Thank you,
    28 Sep 2013, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I have found an interesting historical data from a post.
    http://bit.ly/1fvSQZg
    3 Sep 2013, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Im going to stay long. KP has decades of experience and has proven to be right multiple times. I just wish that I have found his blog long before..... :(
    KP I hope you would find time start another experimental portfolio. Maybe shorter time and smaller target? :)) Lets say 3 months 250K LOL :))
    3 Sep 2013, 03:18 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    looks like $500 is strong resistance area & won't break until Tuesday's event. Nice to see Xs on the chart though :-)
    4 Sep 2013, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    KP, Another thing I hear is buy on rumor & sell on the news. What are the possible scenarios for Tues? If Apple announces china mobile deal & new 5C phones along with 5S then either the stock takes off or pulls back a little, say 2-3% (sell on the news) & then after next quarter's result continues its uptrend. How can we find this from pnf chart? Do I have to wait for double top breakout confirmation i.e. above $515 for this?
    4 Sep 2013, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Investors are disappointed with the launch. http://bit.ly/13HYMw8
    where do we go from here??... Historically AAPL traded down on these events then moved up following weeks.
    Not sure if the history is repeating itself or the stock is down because people really did get disappointed.
    10 Sep 2013, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Will it go up after china event? May be that's what market was expecting, the china mobile deal. Also the 5C price is not that cheap so will it be successful in Asia? Do we have to wait till next quarter's result or at least till the end of the month to see first week's sales of 5S & 5C?
    10 Sep 2013, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I dont know but the PN&F chart reversed to O's instead of X's, If we test 480 levels that is not looking good....
    10 Sep 2013, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    more bad news.... http://bit.ly/15QbD2R
    10 Sep 2013, 11:31 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP, what a blood bath :-( Is this a shakeout or we are done until next product announcement or quarterly results? Will china mobile deal turn the chart to Xs again? Also the 5C pricing is too high. What are your thoughts?
    11 Sep 2013, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • pvile
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Some thought C stood for C-cheap or C-china...in the end...C-stood for Color :( why spend another $500 for a color iPhone when u can spend $10 for a color case already today? I don't think next weeks sales numbers are going to help apple at all. Color phone...existent technology upgrades ( done by android already)= nothing new...and no reason to go buy a new iPhone this week!! This will probably be there worst performing IPhone launch to date.
    11 Sep 2013, 10:29 PM Reply Like
  • pvile
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    KP...I'm sure it's been an unpleasant day for many of your followers today with Apple's down turn today. ICON spoke today and seems to have the same sentiment as you..and is still long on apple. Matter of fact he bought much more of apple today as a good buy in opportunity at 465. But the questions still remain..how long will this blood bath last? And when will this turn around? While its important to share your thoughts on the good news and what's going up...it's equally important for many of your followers to hear from you on the bad news! Holding on to options that are tanking is Not good for anyone...it's important for your followers to know how you feel...More than anything..especially when the news is bad! Could help to save many of your loyal follwers from holding on to long and not taking profits when they should! Any thoughts? Be a shame not to hear from you after today? :(
    11 Sep 2013, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP, Haven't heard from you this week. Any thoughts after the big sell off?
    14 Sep 2013, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Guys, what is the short term price target? $380 again?
    16 Sep 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Spak007
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    IB, I'm no expert but I believe on the PnF chart we had a double bottom breakdown (possibly triple after today?) and support is around 424-428. Just glad I sold about an hour before the announcement because this selloff is brutal!
    16 Sep 2013, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the update. If the sales numbers are ugly then this will go below $400 unless there is a new product category announced. SPWR on the other hand has started going up. Let's see how market reacts after Fed meeting on Wed.
    16 Sep 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Looks like KP is not going to comment until AAPL comes back up $500+ :-)
    19 Sep 2013, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » LOL! That was funny, IB...

     

    Since my bet on Apple did not deliver the big profits that I was expecting by September 10th, I decided to head to Las Vegas to try my luck at the crap tables...Seriously though, I was traveling and in Vegas to complete the furnishing of a condo that my wife and I purchased there and for the last 10 days have been up to my eyeballs with flooring installers, electricians, movers, etc., and hence my absence from this blog...

     

    In any case, a couple of points to consider...

     

    If you have read my blog from its inception, you will note that one of my very first investments was in Sprint CALL options that were 5 months out...during my holding of those CALLS, Sprint went through many ups and downs and my calls lost a lot of money so I went and bought more at those then sale prices...In other words, I try and not to let day to day gyrations confuse or affect my decisions...As long as there is time on the options, then these price plunges should be used as buying opportunities...

     

    That is not to say that all my buy decisions have resulted in profits, however, in the case of Apple, as long as the stock is above its bullish support line, then I am not too worried...Also, we have yet to see the response to the new iPhone 5S here in the US by the buying public...Yesterday I downloaded the new IOS 7 on my old 4S and I gotta tell you, I love the new look and feel of this new operating system...I also plan to upgrade to the new 5S and strongly believe that other iPhone users like myself will do the same because of its new fingerprint security feature...So unless the general public decides to give Apple a thumbs down and not flock to its stores to buy the new iPhone 5S, I will withhold judgement...

     

    However, I must say that Tim Cook made a boneheaded move by holding this first time ever media event in China and not make a big partnership announcement with China Mobile...I do however believe that the partnership is definitely in the cards and will be announced within the next month or two...

     

    kp

     

    P.S. A couple of days ago I did try to respond to one of your previous comments, but for some reason my response did not get published by Seeking Alpha and until this morning, I did not have the time to make the effort again especially when my responses are usually long and detailed...
    20 Sep 2013, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hey KP, good to hear from you. I always get positive vibes when I read your posts. AAPL is following the usual trend, drops after iphone announcement & now its recovering. Also, SPWR is rising. :-) I love ios7. Hope to see larger screen iphone 6 next year. Even though I have made only ~$3K so far, this has been a great learning experience for me. I am playing with real cash but this is the best way to learn & when you have someone like you to guide you. Thanks.
    20 Sep 2013, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    First weekend sales: 9 million. Lets see if this breaks $512 level. :-)
    23 Sep 2013, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    The chart looks bearish, it will go down more before it goes and passes the 496 levels imo.
    25 Sep 2013, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I think im gonna get out of Apple, im giving it up until we pass 510.
    25 Sep 2013, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hi Mkarakum, I had the same thought this morning. But decided to to wait till next week. First there is ongoing govt drama which will get resolved by next week. Second, china mobile deal & options expiration on Friday. Option expiration day should hold the price near $480 range. Then there is golden cross happening 50 & 200 ema, not ma. If there is turn around, I don't want to miss the rally. All the pops happen in pre market. After first week's sales, I jumped in at $490 & now sitting in red. As per my understanding of pnf chart, the next support is at $476. It should hold since the trend is still UP. If not then retest $448. I want to verify my theory of turn around at $476. This is much better than MACD, STOCH... indicator complications. This is a good learning experience for me through pain. Let's revisit this thread after 3 months. I expect KP to be right again on AAPL's call. Good luck!

     

    Hello KP, I know you are busy but whenever you get a chance, could you please comment on my analysis? Thanks!
    26 Sep 2013, 04:11 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I know its really bad for us to look at these charts all the time. I was frustrated yesterday but stayed in and end up buying more one we broke the 485.80 resistance.
    On the other had, poeple who bought and sold it at the peaks made more money than we did.. Im in the red as well. Still waiting this to pass 500....if it ever does..
    26 Sep 2013, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Have patience & we'll also get rewarded pretty soon. Be positive!
    When AAPL reaches to all time high next year, I'll drive down to San Diego to have lunch with KP!

     

    KP, hope you don't mind :-)
    26 Sep 2013, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    what are you holding now?
    26 Sep 2013, 08:51 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (135) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » IB, you are welcome to come down to the city with the country's most perfect weather...not too long ago, Mkarakum came down to say hello...which city do you call home? kp
    27 Sep 2013, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    KP, I'm in San Jose CA.
    27 Sep 2013, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    I wanna move down there :) Its beautiful out there..
    27 Sep 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • mkarakum
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    Im in SF , we should all get together sometime.
    27 Sep 2013, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • 11828801
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Hey Bro,

     

    Even I am from San Jose. Good to know :)
    27 Sep 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Let's plan then. I'm busy with with classes this month. May be in sometime in Nov we can meet. Lets see who all can join. Great!
    27 Sep 2013, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    KP, you are connecting people. Thanks!
    27 Sep 2013, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    Hi KP, what's your take on this shutdown drama?
    1 Oct 2013, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • invest.beginner
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    AAPL is on the move thanks KP!
    29 Nov 2013, 04:54 PM Reply Like
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