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I used to run a limited partnership, boutique hedge fund in the 90s. Retired in 2000 and moved from New York City to Toronto, Canada, got married, raised a family and basically settled down. After a few years in Toronto, my wife got tired of the city’s 8 months of cold weather and insisted that... More
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  • The Nasdaq Correction Is Over...imho 5 comments
    May 26, 2014 11:13 PM

    I have been closely monitoring the Nasdaq since early March when it started it's downward spiral after printing an intra-day high of 4,371.71 on March 3rd, 2014 and then falling almost 426 points or 9.74%, to an intra-day low of 3946.028 printed 42 days later on April 15th.

    Since then, for 4 consecutive weeks, Nasdaq has made higher lows on its weekly chart and then, this past Friday, it closed at 4,185.81, just above its April 9th intra-day high of 4,185.187.

    I believe that by closing above 4,185 on Friday, the Nasdaq Index has ended it's downward swoon and will now be attacking its recent high of 4,371.71 and within the next 2-4 weeks, the Nasdaq should make a new near-term high. Once it has done that, it will then aim its sights on its all-time high of 5,132.52, set all the way back on March 10th, 2000.

    As many of you know, I have been on the record, saying that this bull market will not take a breather until the NASDAQ makes a new all-time high, just like the S&P, the Dow and also the Russell 2000...Back in 2000, when the NASDAQ made it's last all-time high, there was no Google, no Facebook, no Apple (recently resurrected, that is) and no Tesla for that matter...and in spite of the addition of these mega market-cap companies to the index and in spite of the fact that these companies have been able to garner stratospheric valuation, the NASDAQ is yet to make a new all-time high...

    If my market read is correct, then I expect the NASDAQ to make a big move up, as soon as tomorrow, but certainly in the next week or ten days max...and on substantially higher volume than its recent daily average...that should be the absolute final confirmation...

    The following 3 charts graphically illustrate my assertion...

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    About 2 weeks ago, a friend asked for my thoughts on the Nasdaq's health and my comment to him was that there is way too much fear in the markets, which, to me, serves as the contrarian indicator...The markets love to climb the wall of fear...more fear, the better...And when I read headlines like David Tepper, the top hedge-fund manager who 2 years in a row was the nation's highest earning market prognosticator, and one of its biggest bulls, was getting nervous, to me, that was yet another signal that the Nasdaq has established a bottom and is heading higher...

    goo.gl/iMNhWo

    Let's see if my reading of the tea leaves is correct and the markets head higher or whether David Tepper's nervousness is presciently flashing the correct red signal and the markets head lower, in which case, I'll have egg on my face...

    All imho...

    Side Note: For those who have been patiently waiting for me to start my newsletter, I finally have good news...Now that the Nasdaq has finally given me the buy signal, I am ready to start my new Options2Wealth fund!

    karim

    DISCLAIMER: All postings made here are strictly for my personal record keeping and in no way, shape or form, am I even remotely suggesting others to follow my pronouncements / prognostications. However, if, in spite of all my exhortations, should you decide to do so, be advised that you, and ONLY YOU will be responsible for any losses that you may suffer...In other words, the onus is strictly on you. On the other hand, if the move(s) result in a profit for you, I am open to discussing a split. ;-)

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Comments (5)
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  • Drew2014
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Great to see you back Karim. Hope all is going well with you and your family.

     

    I think as long as Janet Yellen continues with QE the stock markets will continue to rise.

     

    Eventually I expect all this Global debt to eventually hit us hard, I think the next few years will be fine.

     

    I sold my last Spec house to a hot-shot bond trader on March 2nd, 2000. This 27 year old kid paid cash, $1.2 Million.

     

    My lawyer said to me "this kid is wiring cash for the whole $1.2M, there are no bank papers to sign".

     

    I sold the house in 4 hours and had 6 bids.

     

    The kid who purchased my home paid $100,000 over asking price, and he was NOT the highest bidder. The highest bidder needed financing and I did not want to wait up to 60 days to close. So glad I took the all cash offer.

     

    As you stated, the next week the dot-com bust happened, March 10th.

     

    I retired from building spec homes and never looked back. Although I did miss the crazy run-up from 2004-2007 but it probably saved me from bankruptcy, lol.

     

    I also think many people are investing "in the markets" because Fixed Income Securities suck. I remember way back when a Senior could retire and get 6%+ on CD's and Annuities.

     

    I don't see many other opportunities for people to make money other than starting their own business.

     

    I'm bullish the Markets but Bearish long-term on any politicians getting our financial debt in order.
    27 May, 07:10 AM Reply Like
  • Rob Rodriguez
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Hello!

     

    I am new to this community. I saw some information from John Assaraf and found Karim on-line. I am all in on giving back and although 25% sounded high at first, after thinking about changing my life in a big way it is only fair to help others do the same. A few questions:
    1. Where is the community located and where can Karim's picks be tracked to emulate what he does?
    2. Is there a certain site where the book should be purchased?
    3. Lastly, what is the minimum one needs to get started trading with options?

     

    All the best!

     

    Rob Rodriguez
    28 May, 12:39 PM Reply Like
  • waynelabel
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    glad you are well

     

    from my read you are right on and I am sure that there won't be any "egg on the face"

     

    Been making the smaller donations as we have been in the preparations and am ready for a lot more giving.

     

    best regards.

     

    Wayne
    28 May, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • D P Roberts
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Karim,
    I met you when you were in Toronto at a restaurant on Bloor. How do I get your newsletter. I agree with your thought on NASDAQ. I bought FEYE.
    Dave
    28 May, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Options2Wealth
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » As I have stated before, part of what I do here is to keep a running record of my prognostications, whether they're on individual stock(s) or on general market direction(s)...

     

    My post, "The Nasdaq Correction Is Over...imho," was written on Monday, May 26th, 2014, the Memorial Day Holiday, extended weekend, and was based on my read of the markets' action over the previous Friday, May 23rd, 2014...

     

    Investor Business Daily, the only "financial" newspaper that I subscribe to, in its June 16th, 2014 edition states, and I quote:

     

    "since the new market uptrend was confirmed May 27 (2014)"

     

    Which, for the record, is one trading day, or, 4 calendar days, AFTER I wrote my post predicting the markets' new bull run...

     

    http://bit.ly/1lvBH3Z

     

    kp
    17 Jun, 02:35 AM Reply Like
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