Exactly 2 weeks ago, on May 26th, 2014, in the post titled The Nasdaq Correction Is Over...imho, I predicted the start of a new bull run by the NASDAQ and one of the reasons for my bullish pronouncement was the bearish sentiments pervading over the markets...In that post, I stated:
About 2 weeks ago, a friend asked for my thoughts on the Nasdaq's health and my comment to him was that there is way too much fear in the markets, which, to me, serves as the contrarian indicator...The markets love to climb the wall of fear...more fear, the better...And when I read headlines like David Tepper, the top hedge-fund manager who 2 years in a row was the nation's highest earning market prognosticator, and one of its biggest bulls, was getting nervous, to me, that was yet another signal that the Nasdaq has established a bottom and is heading higher...
Well, since my 2 week old bullish pronouncement, the NASDAQ has gone from 4,185.81 to this past Friday's close of 4321.40, up 3.24% and, as per my prediction, is now only 50 points away from eclipsing its near-term high established this past March of 4,371.71.
Now here's the fun part: This past Thursday, on June 6th, exactly 10 days after my NASDAQ prediction, a chagrined David Tepper, returned to CNBC to confess that he indeed has seen the light, gotten religion and is back to being a bull again: www.valuewalk.com/2014/06/david-tepper-t.../
Of course I am under no illusion that Mr. Tepper, who takes home multi-billion dollar paychecks, has even heard of me, let alone bothers to read my obscure blog, but nevertheless, it is fun to imagine and play along...
One of the reason's I started my blog is to keep a running record of all my market bets, good, bad or ugly...One unfinished business is to bring together, under the Options2Wealth umbrella, my previous market pronouncements as well...Therefore, if you will allow me the indulgence, I would, for the record, note my previous market predictions here as well:
About 3 years ago, on June 6th, 2010 to be exact, well before I started Options2Wealth, I stumbled upon a blog on Seeking Alpha where the writer was all doom and gloom about the then health, or lack thereof, of the US stock market...The Dow had just rolled over and closed below 10,000...9,931.91 to be exact, and this blogger wrote a post titled: Friday's Controlled Descent in Equities: A Perfect Storm Is Brewing...to which I made the following comment:
First comments on this site...The is a market that is awash in liquidity and for someone who has been around the block a few times, high liquidity means high stock prices...PERIOD! All the doom and gloom is just what the doctor ordered so that all the weak hands let go of their stocks...What you are seeing is a consolidation of the 10,000 floor for the inevitable climb up...And mark my words, this market is going up and the ride is going to be a doozy!
SafeList.com 6 Jun 2010, 10:37 AM
(SafeList.com was the name of my then company and it was the moniker I used to use on Seeking Alpha)
Then 8 months later, on February 1st, 2011, with the DOW up some 20%, I returned, not to thump my chest and take a bow, but instead, to make yet another crazy prediction, commenting on another of this blogger's bearish posts, this one titled, A Turning Point in Gold:
On June 6th, I posted my very first comment on Seeking Alpha, to one of your posts "Friday's Controlled Descent: A Perfect Storm is Brewing," and for that post, I received 29 Thumbs Down...LOL!
In disagreeing with your post then, I said the following:
"The is a market that is awash in liquidity and for someone who has been around the block a few times, high liquidity means high stock prices...PERIOD! All the doom and gloom is just what the doctor ordered so that all the weak hands let go of their stocks...What you are seeing is a consolidation of the 10,000 floor for the inevitable climb up...And mark my words, this market is going up and the ride is going to be a doozy!"
Today, 6 months later, the DOW has moved up 20% in just 6 months, from 10,000 then to today's 12,000. And just like I predicted, the ride has been a "doozy!"
Now, 6 months later, unfortunately, I again have to disagree with your fundamental assertion...If the price of gold goes up, it will be because there are 3 billion folks in India and China whose living standards are rising and they are becoming a part of the middle class and they need a way to flaunt their wealth and buying and wearing gold is an age old tradition...nothing more. The US monetary policy has been ABSOLUTELY CORRECT for the last 2 years. Even the gloomiest economist and a perennial Bear, Robert Aliber, has turned into a Bull and is predicting a gangbuster US economy for 2011...
Even though the Dow is up 20% since my last post, this doozy ride is just getting started...If you are hunkering down and buying gold as a defensive position, with the expectation that this stock market move is a fool's move, then, I am afraid you will find yourself on the sidelines, with this freight train of a Bull market will continue to roar along, without you, for the ride of a lifetime...
Feb 1 12:23 PM|1 Like|Report Abuse|
(For those who are still reading this post, you will have accurately surmised that I had to be under the influence of some intoxicant (red wine), because I incorrectly counted my time since my previous post to 6 months instead of the correct 8 months...LOL)
Now, 3 years later, the DOW is up another 40+%, and almost daily, along with the S&P, is making new, all-time highs and only the NASDAQ is behind the curve...Many of my regular readers must be aware that I am on the record, as far back as July 26th, 2013, in a blog post titled The Impending Move In Apple..., predicting the inevitability of the NASDAQ, joining its peers, the S&P, the DOW and the RUSSELL 2000, in making new all-time highs...Has not happened yet, and certainly didn't happen within my predicted time frame of "6-9 months," but new high it shall make...
...And it will, this year!
Hopefully, readers of my blog will not take this post in the wrong context, as an exercise in self-aggrandizement, but will recognize that my recent prediction on the NASDAQ is not an isolated prediction and that there is a method to my madness...
DISCLAIMER: All postings made here are strictly for my personal record keeping and in no way, shape or form, am I even remotely suggesting others to follow my pronouncements / prognostications. However, if, in spite of all my exhortations, should you decide to do so, be advised that you, and ONLY YOU will be responsible for any losses that you may suffer...In other words, the onus is strictly on you. On the other hand, if the move(s) result in a profit for you, I am open to discussing a split. ;-)
Disclosure: I am long QQQ.