Tommy D's  Instablog

     After following this mess and the corruption within, how does a investor get an  an edge other than picking a few stocks with a wide enough moat to be around for thirty years.  It seems clear to me that if you don't know the who's who and have the very best information, you don't have a chance. 
     I bought my first stock BAC at $37, my thinking was they just took over Country- wide for 4 billion and Countrywide  was worth 154 billion the year before.  I figured that down the road it was going to pay off for me one way or the other, and they were paying a dividend of 7% or something to boot.  Now we are all aware what happened and I didn't have the rocks to buy it at $3 and change.  Who knows, I could have bought more and it could have went to zero.  Oh, that's right!  Some people know.  Those are the people that got in at 3 and doubled and tripled their money.  They were the people on the inside that had the info it was not going to fail.      
     Does anyone really think that at this point with the exception of Citi any of the banks will fail?  I mean I see Citi as risky but I also could see it at $70 in thirty years.  Wouldn't that be nice, loading up now and having it payoff down the road.  Maybe even pay a nice dividend!  My gut tells me stay away because I think Citi is really run by the government, and the government could cut the oxygen on Citi and either get rid of them altogether of have someone else take them over for whatever reason.  So, I come back to BAC.  Will BAC be around for thirty years?  Do you see it eventually hitting $80?  Should we all be grabbing it on the cheap?  I think BAC, WFC, GS are all going to be around for many more years.  Just keep buying the banks if you don't have to sell anytime soon.  It's probably the safest bet.  Or is this analysis a sucker's bet with an old school beat down!
      

Disclosure: " long BAC, WFC "