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Justin Giles
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I have been investing in the stock market for a number of years now. I invest mostly in value and growth stocks. My financial goal in life is to always have my money working for me. Follow me on StockTwits -----> JustinGiles Follow me on Twitter -------> JustinGiles22
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  • Picking Stocks: My Track Record 24 comments
    Nov 8, 2013 6:46 PM | about stocks: TWTR, P, AAPL, YNDX, PCLN, RENN, DANG, VIPS, BIDU, YOKU, DSS, VRNG

    Have you ever wondered how good an analyst was at his or her job? Over the years of investing, I've seen great analysts and some bad one's as well. Knowing who you can trust is a big deal for investors. That is why I created this blog to show you my performance over the last year since making my recommendations.

    As you know I've made many recommendations on Seeking Alpha (SA) about which stocks I like and which one's I would avoid or sell short. So without further ado, here is my track record. Enjoy!

    FirmRatingStart PriceClosing PriceChange % **Price TargetArticle Details
    (VRNG)BUY$2.92$3.82+31%$10*Here
    (DANG)BUY$3.77$12.85+241%$20*Here
    (AAPL)BUY$428.91$531.82+24%$680*Here
    (PCLN)BUY$695.76$1,178.08+70%$1,500*Here
    (P)HOLD$13.67$28.40+108%$32*Here
    (YNDX)BUY$22.86$29.96+31%$45*Here
    (VIPS)BUY$29.85$138.41+364%$215*Here
    (BIDU)BUY$87.05$149.35+72%$220*Here
    (NQ)BUY$8.65$17.00+97%$35*Here
    (YOKU)BUY$16.35$25.81+58%$35*Here
    (RENN)

    HOLD

    $2.71$3.30+22%$3.50Here
    (NFLX)

    HOLD

    $261.96$337.31-29%$300Here
    (DSS)BUY$1.14$1.30+15%$2.50*Here
    (TWTR)

    (Short)

    $46.01$43.14+6%$35*Here
    (WYY)BUY$1.49$1.51+1%$3.00*Here
    (YY)BUY$76.36$68.65-10%$95* 
    (QIHU)BUY$99.58$89.34-10%$135* 
    (VHC)BUY$14.18$14.50+2%$25* 
    (BAC)BUY$17.20$16.72-3%$22* 
    (UAL)BUY$44.63$44.88+1%$52* 
    (GRPN)BUY$7.84$7.840%$11* 
    (TRLA)BUY$33.20$33.81+2%$45* 
    Average Gain/Loss=   +49.68%  

    - Chart reflects closing prices as of 4/4/2014

    * Price targets reflect projected April 1, 2015, closing prices

    ** Change % are roundest to nearest whole number

    Disclosure: I am long VRNG, NQ, WYY.

    Stocks: TWTR, P, AAPL, YNDX, PCLN, RENN, DANG, VIPS, BIDU, YOKU, DSS, VRNG
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Comments (24)
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  • Nice list of gainers other than NFLX. Let's see them at end of the year. Enjoy.
    14 Nov 2013, 07:03 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yeah, NFLX like AMZN keeps going up...don't know how long it can last now that Icahn is pulling out. Hopefully by the end of the year NFLX will correct itself. Thanks for the comment. Take care!
    14 Nov 2013, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • Congratulations on your Stock picking.I hope that you are using stop losses to protect your gains.Personally i hate giving up my gains.Generally bull markets run for five years,right now we are fifty six months into a bull market.
    15 Nov 2013, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Great article Justin! Thank you also for sharing your picks and how they fared. I am anxiously awaiting NQ ER and audit. Appreciate the positive note you take here after everything C Block did.
    8 Apr, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • There was the 10 year bull from 1990 to 2000. Here's hoping that we're in the 10 yr category
    8 Apr, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Justin,
    Hey nice work and I also determined Netflix should be shorted earlier this year although did not trade the idea. Just thought I would point out where I decided that I had gotten wrong to compare notes so to speak. First I underestimated the brand value and traction of the international market for NetFlix. Second I believe investors reward firms who are at the front of changing market dynamics much like AMZN who has literally changed the world we live in, how we read, etc. If you could look forward twenty years would you see a sky full of drones delivering AMZN sold products and an AMZN that now has 30-60% of the entire world's publishing market? Finally and MOST importantly I believe that I looked at the massive rising tide of competition (AMZN again lol) including products I consider to be superior from a value perspective (offer a more compelling value to the customer) and thought surely people would be dropping NetFlix. The error there is that I thought of the services as mutually exclusive, no one has cable AND Dish right? Wrong in this case I now see because it's affordable enough and offers proprietary content on and off line. I still question future profitability based on rising costs as more competition enters the arena and buy content it should give content providers vastly increased pricing power. Suddenly there are 8 or ten companies bidding on a supply of products which has not grown much so that increased demand for its products has made them considerably more valuable.
    3 Dec 2013, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Justin,

     

    Really enjoy your articles. Nice list, besides the 2 shorts, guess we can't get them all right. I am just hoping the one you crush out of the park is VRNG!

     

    What is your thoughts on ARNA going into 2014?

     

    Thanks,
    Doug
    19 Dec 2013, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Doug,

     

    Yeah, short positions have really turned on me. However, in my defense both stocks initially went down before climbing higher. I guess the lesson learned here is that I shouldn't short stocks haha

     

    I've actually been following ARNA for awhile now. I've never written anything about it. I honestly think anything under $6 is a great entry. You?
    19 Dec 2013, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Nice picks and gains. Do you trade options as well?
    1 Jan, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » haggerston,

     

    No, I haven't ever looked into options. I'm guessing you do?
    1 Jan, 01:19 PM Reply Like
  • I do (though took a beating with NQ due to MW) but I also like holding long positions, like ARNA and NQ.
    1 Jan, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Solid Justin....what are some of your favorites for 2014?
    4 Jan, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » anush100,

     

    I'm hoping to publish a small-cap article next week regarding one's I believe will at least double. April is when I release my top 10 picks. Last year I focused solely on tech stocks and it worked out pretty good.

     

    What about you?
    4 Jan, 02:39 AM Reply Like
  • Nice Justin, just don't short anything in 2014 & you will be good as gold. Surprised you are not in BCYP. Upcoming Markman Feb 5th. Any thoughts on that one?
    4 Jan, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » repowell88,

     

    Haha thanks for the comment. I must say in my defense though that both stocks that I recommended to short, initially went down before they climbed higher. I'll stay away from shorting in 2014 though haha.

     

    I don't follow BCYP that much, but from I've seen, I think it has a lot of potential. I'm guessing your are long BCYP?
    4 Jan, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • Nice, Justin ! What does "closing price" mean though.
    15 Jan, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Roland,

     

    The "closing price" is what the final price is of a security (stock) on a given trading day. Hope that helps.
    15 Jan, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • What are your current thoughts on NQ after the announcement of the Sprint deal. I am long NQ with a buy-in at around $11. As more time goes by the less credibility Muddy Water has.
    15 Jan, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Yazman,

     

    I should have an article out tomorrow morning that talks more about my feelings of NQ. I like the Company and think its severely undervalued still. The partnerships and recent hedge fund buying continues to solidify the Company in my opinion.
    16 Jan, 01:24 AM Reply Like
  • Justin,

     

    Of the stocks in your portfolio what would be you "NAP" (horse racing term for best bet).
    I am long Vringo!
    24 Jan, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Justin: Thanks for sharing your experience and opinion. Some of the stock prices exceeded the targets but still rated "Buy". How come?
    25 Jan, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » jrakib,

     

    Thanks for the comment. I'm a couple months behind putting out my monthly report (2013-2014 Ten Tech Stocks). I'm hoping to get that out soon so I can update price targets etc. Hopefully that answers your question.
    27 Jan, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the info about NQ. Do you know when the next quarterly report is due for NQ?
    I have one for you. Look at the 4Q report for GTAT. They will be doubling their revenues this year, and are heavily shorted. GTAT has other products in the pipeline. It's under 15 now - I think it will be at least 30 within a couple years, maybe sooner.
    1 Mar, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » GeoffHiker,

     

    Thank for the comment. With thousands of stocks out there its hard to cover them all. That's why I like to bounce ideas around with investors. I haven't ever looked into GTAT but I will certainly look at it now.

     

    As for NQ's quarterly report goes, I'm still waiting to here back from management on that. With full year results, audit, etc, it looks like the results might get pushed back from it usual spot which March 5-6.
    2 Mar, 03:32 PM Reply Like
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