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Telsa Rowe's  Instablog

Telsa Rowe
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Nutritionist/MD/Biotech investor. I have little time to discuss the general market, anything I cannot change or other irrelevant topics that dominate seekingalpha and are the products of its top 100 members. I put my money where my mouth is and adhere to sound DD. Capitalism favors the bold and... More
  • Telsa Rowe to turn $2500 into $100,000 in 3 months and 8 total trades. Blog 1/13 59 comments
    Aug 11, 2010 9:31 PM | about stocks: JAZZ, BIOD, ARNA
    What I love about biotech more than any other sector is it's volatility which can be profited from regardless of which way its chosen security moves. Biotech is a sector that allows options to be profited from more so than any other sector. I also love the fact that biotechs have staid action dates (FDA panels, pdufa's, phase result presentations, etcetera). With these staid action dates one can begin research and DD on a wide range of biotechs and select the ones they like or dislike. From there one can develop his trading strategy far in advance modifying it slightly with the news updates on the chosen securities. 

    I took a bet the other day from a colleague. He said it's impossible for the individual trader these days to make more money with their funds than proffesionally managed funds can for them. He said Wall Street is rigged. My arguement was that if it (Wall Street) was rigged it was irrelevant because traders enjoy the freedom to utilize tools to make money when stocks go up (calls, buying stock) or down (puts, short stock) or even sideways(certain option spreads). I bet him that I could turn $2500 into $100,000 in 3 months. I was met with laughter. I wasn't laughing because I knew I had done it before on more than one occasion. This will be 1 of approximately 13 blog entries chronicaling my trades over the next 3 months. To make things harder for me and easier for you let's set some rudimentary rules:

    1. There must be no more than 8 total trades
    2. No pennystocks
    3. No daytrades


    I do not ask that anybody mirror my trades at all as my positions will carry CONSIDERABLE risk. I do ask that you follow my progress and check in to see how it's going every so often. To say I was not aware of the trades i will make already is a lie. I spent most of July researching, pouring through clinical trial data, TA, chatting with experts, and finding FDA trends. My next 3 months consist of 8 total trades (a buy and then sell of same security is considered 2 trades).

    1) Buying puts for JAZZ going into their panel meeting
    2) Buying puts for ARNA going into their panel meeting
    3) Buying calls for BIOD going into their PDUFA

    There has been some criticism of my vociferous parlance as of late but that will be inaudible after I will smash the professionaly managed funds returns over the next 3 months and validate my authenticity. NOTHING but embers will follow this deathmarch. After I turn $2500 into $100,000 I will then begin a second part to this turning $100,000 into $1,000,000. Enough with the talking and bullshit general market discussions which foolishly dominate seekingalpha. Its time to make money and witness somebody actually put their money where their mouth is. That somebody is me.

    I will author a blog before each option trade execution and include a screenshot.. Again, my starting capital is $2500. This has been blog entry 1/13. 


     





    Disclosure: positions forthcoming
    Stocks: JAZZ, BIOD, ARNA
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Comments (59)
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  • Author’s reply » I left out one trade. Will decide that after I take down jazz.
    11 Aug 2010, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla which puts on JAZZ and ARNA you got? You didn't specify thx.
    16 Aug 2010, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Have not bought them yet. For Jazz I am looking at September exp puts with an $11 strike price. Looking to buy them around $160/contract. If I cannot get them for that price I will buy $10 strike price puts early in the day Thursday at whatever price they are at. Will author a blog before I buy.
    16 Aug 2010, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • you better get on those BIOD calls- since VIAject is going through a 501b2 mechanism (new formulation of already approved drug for same indication) there won't be a review panel, and technically the FDA can give a CRL any time before the PDUFA. So literally, BIOD could hear from the FDA any day now.
    23 Aug 2010, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • which Calls position would you recommend? Thanks!
    23 Aug 2010, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • I would just buy Biodel (BIOD) right now. At $4.30, looks attractive. How much lower can it go?
    23 Aug 2010, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • you remind me of me, only smarter and richer and ballsyer. good luck
    15 Aug 2010, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • How can I get in on this scheme? LOL
    15 Aug 2010, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • So it has been a month. How are you doing?
    15 Aug 2010, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » A month? It's been a week sir. First trade will be buying puts for jazz this week. CBOE finaly put $11 strike price September expiration options on the board so i will buy them this week and blog before I do with a screenshot after I do.
    15 Aug 2010, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » BTW, will be looking to buy them (jazz $11 sept exp. puts) for around $160 a contract. Cannot wait to get this deathmarch to $100,000 started. I hear the drums in my head already.
    15 Aug 2010, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • $160? That is overpriced considering JAZZ is a small biotechnology company.
    15 Aug 2010, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » $1.6 a share for a stock trading over $10 a share is expensive? No it is not. I'm anticipating a 60% move down so anywhere in the $160 price range is an equitable price.
    15 Aug 2010, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • So you are betting that the stock falls? And what if it doesn't?
    15 Aug 2010, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » It will.
    15 Aug 2010, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Telsa -

     

    First of all, thank you for sharing your experience in the stock market. I really want to follow your trading and to make the same amount of money. I know the high risk involved, but i'm willing to gamble. I'm new to options and I have a scottrade account, is it simple to follow your trading? Can I send you PM?

     

    Thanks again and good luck!
    15 Aug 2010, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Thank you. My trading involves some real risks and I don't advise anybody to mirror my trades. If you have not traded options before I would really suggest you read up on them and paper trade them for a little while. There are going to be plenty of FDA action dates to play so don't be impatient and feel like you are missing out.
    15 Aug 2010, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the advise!
    15 Aug 2010, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • I hope you do it. Good luck
    16 Aug 2010, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • yeah, same here - good luck! I will be following Telsa's progress here while I learn Options.
    16 Aug 2010, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • I like your style and if you pull this off, it makes you legendary. Very cool plan with the 3 option plays. Very cool.
    16 Aug 2010, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • How are you so sure this stock will fall?
    16 Aug 2010, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • where is the popcorn smiley icon...
    16 Aug 2010, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » The popcorn is busy getting drenched in butter, seasoning and salt. My first trade (puts on jazz) will be made early tuesday or early wednesday.
    16 Aug 2010, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • Where will you post what you bought?
    17 Aug 2010, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I will author a new blog. The rest of the remaining 12 blogs will have the title-

     

    $2500 to $100,000 blog ?/13
    17 Aug 2010, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • can't wait to see the action!
    16 Aug 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla - it is impossible to predict the FDA response - knowing 100% either way involves insider access. Do you have this insider access?
    17 Aug 2010, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • With all due respect, what kind of stupid question are you asking? You think he's that dumb that even if he had or knew of any insider info he would post it here?
    17 Aug 2010, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • its a question that needs to be asked ya bonehead. (with all due respect) .... further I suspect you are going along with the short position... hmmm.... what a winner!
    18 Aug 2010, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I am not an insider. I have absolutely no connections on Wall Street and would like to keep it that way. I have been wrong on 1 FDA decision out of the past 100 or so that I have had positions in (dating back to 2008). And even the one I was wrong about I made money on because it retraced after the approval. BTW, I still have not bought the JAZZ puts yet. I either will tomorrow or very early on Thursday. I will blog as soon as I do. Like I have openly stated before, JAZZ will collapse around 50% from it's current pps by Monday August 23rd. Cannot wait.
    17 Aug 2010, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Please, please make it on Late Thursday or early Friday so I can join - I will have funds by then. :)
    17 Aug 2010, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • "I have been wrong on 1 FDA decision out of the past 100 or so that I have had positions in (dating back to 2008)."

     

    Are you even living in reality? Anyone can make outlandish claims - I challenge you to actually follow through and post all 13 blogs. I imagine come blog # 7 you'll be eating crow.
    17 Aug 2010, 04:55 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Crow is actually a delicacy in Lithuania and scientifically has been shown to increase a man's sexual potency. My brother has had it and said it is delicious. So lets hope that I am in fact eating crow a lot sooner than blog #7. I will turn $2500 into $100,000. Thats not a threat or a boast its just the way its going to be. My advice is to cease the nonsense talk, get on the right side of this, and join our cult. You are more than welcome here.
    17 Aug 2010, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • Will there be a chance that you will buy JAZZ puts this Friday August 20th?
    17 Aug 2010, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • You advise us not to mirror your trades as they carry considerable risk, yet you seem so confident in your abilities. With a .999 batting average, why shouldn't people mirror your trades? Most of us could use an extra hundred grand in the mattress, and this seems like a sure thing.
    17 Aug 2010, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » New article out-

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...

     

    I understand and I am very confident. I however am not being paid for this project and do not want to be accused of stock manipulation of any sort by trying to get folks to follow/mirror me.
    17 Aug 2010, 07:38 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, but if you are right about the stock movements, how can you be charged with stock manipulation? You are just sharing the truth, right? Charges on stock manipulation are usually pumpers or dumpers who issue false news to cause a stock movement so they can profit.
    17 Aug 2010, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • Ok, this individual (Mr. Rowe) comes off as very confident and I suspect that some naive readers of this blog may mimic his trades thinking they can earn substantial profits really quickly. This is a huge mistake.

     

    First, if Mr. Rowe actually did predict the last 100 FDA decisions (such a weird number to pull out of his head...isn't it strange that he has reviewed EXACTLY 100 decisions. Clearly he just made this number up) then he would be worth tens of millions of dollars. Even if he started with just 50 grand at the start, he'd be filthy rich with a mansion, Lamborghini, etc.

     

    Instead he is writing these cocky articles. If it was in writing and there was proof that he predicted the last 100 FDA decisions, that would be a whole other discussion.

     

    I will come back and read his articles as his arrogance is quite entertaining.
    17 Aug 2010, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » I would not have a Lambo I would have a Ferrari...which I do. Their exhaust note is better, the interiors are better and they have many years manufacturing experience over Lambo. I'm not here to brag about what I have or do not have. And I did not say 100 trades I said 100 or so. I started with about $12K. What I have turned that into is none of your business but any savvy person can look at what I accomplish here and figure it out. I took a bet sir. Although you see I have only 60 or so followers their eyes are not the only ones or most important ones following. Watch and learn.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:30 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Rowe:
    If you did make those trades, why are you not the richest person in the world? Using excel:
    $12,000 * 250% = $30,000
    $30,000 * 250% = $75,000
    ....
    If you do this for 100 times, that is $7.47 * 10^43. No one has that much money. It even doesn't exist.

     

    Okay, Mr. Powers. Show me the money. Show me the money.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • cocky=risk cocky+risk=loss loss from cocky+risk=BIG.

     

    however if this guy can ever get on CNBC with 2500 bucks.... more power to him
    18 Aug 2010, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • Maybe he is a pumper or a dumper.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Maybe we will find out shortly. Watch and learn.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • I'll repeat myself again. Attempting to mimic his trades is extremely foolish as FDA decisions are highly unpredictable. If it were so easy as Mr. Rowe suggests, many money-hungry physicians would simply trade for a living. And he would be so rich, he would never have to trade again. Do not get fooled by his confident rhetoric.

     

    Hedge funds would have hired Mr. Rowe years ago and would plow tens of millions into each trade Mr. Rowe suggests. They could make hundreds of millions.

     

    So what's reality? Hedge funds stay away from attempting to predict these FDA events or they play the run up by entering and exiting very quickly.

     

    Here is the unusual part: As far as I can see, he has written three articles on the web. And in none of them did he make any prediction except that Jazz will fail. That is not unusual.

     

    Where were his articles before two weeks ago?

     

    The other unsual part is that he claims he is a physician yet I can't find anyone with his name in any physician database. Is this his screen name? Real name?
    17 Aug 2010, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » What suspiscions you try and foist upon me are irrelevant. What matters is the goal- paydirt. Watch and learn.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa..."watch and learn" is the most commonly used mssage board post. Could you be LONG JAZZ with a novel (somewhat at least) strategy?

     

    In this world, if it happens the way you say it will we can only think 2 things

     

    1. That Telsa guy is a master.
    2. Even a broken clock is right 2 times a day.

     

    Good luck all.
    18 Aug 2010, 08:03 AM Reply Like
  • Keeping with this article's theme of wild gambling I've got 3 prop bets.

     

    1) Over/Under number of trades he makes and shows ahead of time? O/U 2.5

     

    2) Over/Under blog posts he actually makes on this subject? O/U 4.5 (This one included)

     

    3) And just because it is worth reprinting, odds this is factual?

     

    "I have been wrong on 1 FDA decision out of the past 100 or so that I have had positions in (dating back to 2008). And even the one I was wrong about I made money on because it retraced after the approval."

     

    No = -1MM
    Yes = +1MM
    18 Aug 2010, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • I am amazed that there are no posts for today with today being JAZZ "PUTS" purchase day, I mean WTF is that all about, guess that talk about posting when the trade was made is pure B/S....oh well same old same old
    19 Aug 2010, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • No - he said Wednesday or Thursday would be purchase day. In fact he purchased yesterday and posted copies of his trades after they were made and filled for all to see. I am amazed you didn't see them. See his 2nd blog of 13 for details.
    19 Aug 2010, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • Author’s reply » Chris i am kind of confused by this. Clearly blog 2 was authored 2 days ago and available for all to see on the upper right hand corner of this page.

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    20 Aug 2010, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • my bad will take a look, thanks for the feedback

     

    CRF
    20 Aug 2010, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • un-suspend the guy's account because the guy was clearly right about those Jazz puts!
    23 Aug 2010, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Un-suspend this guy! He's a shinning glimmer of hope in a dark abyss that we call the market today.
    23 Aug 2010, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • What are your thoughts on BIOD today regarding the FDA letter to one their manufacturing facilities? Does this imply a likely delay to their Oct 31 date?
    www.fda.gov/ICECI/Enfo...
    24 Aug 2010, 01:14 PM Reply Like
  • This is bad news. There may be a delay, yes.
    24 Aug 2010, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • The delay relates to the manufacture of the injection pen, which is not part of the October PDUFA for VIAject.
    24 Aug 2010, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • You do realize you will have to average 70% per trade to accomplish this goal? Your first round appears it will fall short of 70%; in reality, 34% will be likely based on your anticipated drop to $5.00. The 34% is derived from the current delta of .6 on your Sept10 Puts. I hope you succeed, it is truly quite a challenge you have set yourself up for in this current market. The volatility swings are more emotionally driven than ever; so any shorts you do are obviously high risk. I can see hitting 70% two maybe three times, but eight times...Good Luck :)
    26 Aug 2010, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Well, JAZZ has not yet fallen to $5. Stock actually went up to $10. Personally doubt it will fall to $5.
    22 Sep 2010, 07:39 PM Reply Like
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