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Telsa Rowe
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Nutritionist/MD/Biotech investor. I have little time to discuss the general market, anything I cannot change or other irrelevant topics that dominate seekingalpha and are the products of its top 100 members. I put my money where my mouth is and adhere to sound DD. Capitalism favors the bold and... More
  • JAZZ will recieve an unfavorable response from the FDA panel and it's stock will collapse Monday. Only 2 days left to get out. 55 comments
    Aug 17, 2010 7:16 PM | about stocks: JAZZ, HEB

    I would like to open by saying that if you hold shares of JAZZ there will be nothing but tears, bloodshed and regret waiting for you Monday morning when the stock collapses around 50% and your portfolio is awash in a bloody mess of red ink. If you have not exited JAZZ or at least locked in profits then you should do so immediately. 

    My first article written here about JAZZ set to explain my belief that fibromyalgia is a very controversial disease with a contended legitimacy. In this article I would like to take a look at the statistics available on fibromyalgia and why this data will strongly work against a panel recommendation of JZP-6.

    Fibromyalgia is diagnosed and prescribed almost exclusively for women. In fact, the official ratio of women to men treated for fibromyalgia in 2009 was greater than 9:1. That means that over 90% of those diagnosed with fibromyalgia were women. Fibromyalgia has been diagnosed in approximately 2% of the US population(309M). That's a deceptive way of putting the numbers. Because 90% of fibromyalgia patients are women that means almost 4% of the entire population of women in the United States suffer from fibromyalgia. People have been foolishly quick to point out that JAZZ's drug candidate JZP-6(GHB) has already been approved to treat narcolepsy under the brand name Xyrem. This is true but let's crunch the numbers. Only 50,000 people in the United States have been diagnosed with and are currently being treated for narcolepsy. Only half of all narcoleptics are being treated with or have been prescribed Xyrem. 
    Thats a very small population half of which are men. That means 25,000 women in the US have narcolepsy. Comparing the patient populations of fibromyalgia and narcolepsy is similar to comparing K2 to Bunker Hill. Fibromyalgia affects ~6,000,000 women and narcolepsy affects ~25,000 women. The comparisons between these two diseases has got to stop. The amount of women suffering from and diagnosed with fibromyalgia in the United States is the same size as the amount of women diagnosed with diabetes in the United States. 

    There is absolutely no data on how HGB affects fetal development and birth. The most detailed gestational studies were for Xyrem and even then they were only on animals as read in this link-

    http://www.biopsychiatry.com/ghb/xyrem.pdf

    For a disease which affects exclusively women this will weigh heavily on the FDA panel's decision. Add to that the serious withdrawal symptoms, addictive nature of the drug, deadly effects when mixed with even small amounts of alcohol, and the dispute of the disease's legitimacy, JZP-6 is looking almost ridiculous. The silver lining on the pregnancy and fetal development issue is the fact that the majority of those diagnosed with fibromyalgia are over age 35 which helps mitigate things somewhat although not nearly enough in my medical opinion. I have yet to find a doctor that can accurately prognos and distinguish between a patient with fibromyalgia, cfs, me, ibs, or has just worked out. If you find a doctor that can and they are confident in doing so then it's likely they had a visit from a well spoken pharma rep previously. The closest thing related to JAZZ's situation that I can think of was Hemispherix Biopharma's attempt to get regulatory clearance
    for their controversial drug candidate Ampligen. Ampligen was seeking approval for the treatment of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). They were denied. Ampligen is relatively benign compared to JZP-6 and was attempting approval to treat an affected population much smaller than that of fibromyalgia.  

    I find it interesting that Frederick Wolfe, who is largely credited with getting fibromyalgia recognized as a disease now rejects his own work and is disgusted with where fibromyalgia has been taken. This is an excerpt from the American Journal of Medicine-



    "According to Frederick Wolfe, highly cited fibromyalgia researcher and lead author of the 1990 paper that first defined the ACR fibromyalgia classification criteria, "the large majority of physicians, sociologists, and medical historians"[11] are skeptical about the validity of fibromyalgia as a clinical entity.[139] Some call fibromyalgia a “non-disease”[19] and “an over-inclusive and ultimately meaningless label.”[140] Wolfe now questions the validity of fibromyalgia as a disease. He considers fibromyalgia a physical response to stress, depression, and economic and social anxiety,[141] and believes the associated symptoms are a normal part of everyday life. In 2009, he wrote, "the tendency to respond with distress to physical and mental stressors is part of the human condition."[142] Wolfe and other opponents of the fibromyalgia concept say that labeling fibromyalgia as a "disease" simply legitimizes patients’ sickness behavior, slowing
    their recovery and harming them.[19]"
     

    Jazz has continued it's runup from the $9's as predicted in my first article. My target options "close out" price is still $5. I see the CBOE is pegging the pps to either go up to $15 or down to $5 from a strangle spread with an approval or rejection. I see a strong panel vote against JZP-6's approval. When the bloody mess of red ink is mopped up from shareholders and the computer screens cleared of all debris left by exit wounds they will show a 250% or more profit for those prudent enough to buy puts. I will be buying puts for JAZZ either Wednesday or early Thursday. I'm currently involved in a project to turn $2500 to $100,000 here. I am looking at either $10 or $11 strike price puts with a September expiration. There are two reasons I have not bought puts yet: One, it has not been established whether JAZZ's stock will be halted all day long or will resume trading late in the day Friday. If I find out from my sources within the next 48 hours that it will be resumed I will buy $10 strike Aug 20th puts. Second, is that I am anticipating that the FDA briefing documents won't raise any questions not already discussed and JAZZ may head back to the $11 area (give or take) making puts all the cheaper. To all followers following the $2500 to $100,000 blog series I will author a blog either Wednesday or Thursday as soon as I make the first trade. Stay tuned and stay away from any positions in JAZZ that are not bearish. 

    Now let's talk about the available data on JZP-6. JAZZ is attempting to "sneak" JZP-6 in via the 505b2 NDA meaning that instead of a regular 505b1 NDA they submited one for a drug (JZP-6) based on an already approved drug (Xyrem). Jazz's phase III trials although reaching statistical significance over placebo were FAR too short. Two phase III trials were conducted over a paltry 14 week period each. I hope people heard me correctly because I in fact did say "14 weeks". I will say it again so there is no possibility of confusion: 14 WEEKS. Combined, that's a phase III trial that lasted for half a year. The patients participating in the trials encountered AE(adverse events) and side effects at over double the rate of the placebo group. We are talking about a schedule 1 drug that had a 6 month trial. Is JAZZ waiting to deliver the punch line at the panel? To anybody in the medical field or familiar with the FDA, JAZZ's trial and data is laughable. In fact, there is really nothing there for me to see or read. The JZP-6 trials were so ridiculously vacuous that I actually had to go back and read the Xyrem trials and prescription labels to get an idea of what the outcomes were and what's going on-

    http://www.biopsychiatry.com/ghb/xyrem.pdf

    Again, I will reiterate the fact that JAZZ is attempting approval of a hard-core illegal Schedule 1 drug for a disease that has legitimacy issues, has no longterm safety data, has no pregnancy data, is not life threating, which has several other treatment options, and had very limited trial duration. We all know about fibromyalgia's classification and the 9 paired tender points. The only thing going through my mind after hearing "tender points" isn't the plight of fibromyalgia patients but how much JAZZ's stock will look like over fried tender loins come Monday.

    I spoke to a colleague who said France is using GHB on patients during pregnancy. I corrected him by saying it was not administered during pregnancy but birth. Doctors intravenously administer it during birth to relax the woman's cervical muscles. Even this is controvertial as the children born often recieve lower RDS scores after birth and are closely monitered. Because of GHB's short half-life they are usually fine. Think about that: GHB acts so quickly and is so powerful that it can affect a baby during delivery. What fetal results will consistent use of GHB during pregnancy yield? Let's not forget the majority of women are unaware they are pregnant for 4-6 weeks and sometimes much longer. Are there drug interactions between (the pill) and GHB? Alot of questions remain on this drug and you can bet the panel will ask them. Unfortunately for shareholders, JAZZ won't be able to answer them.

















    Disclosure: Very bearish. Will be buying puts-
    Stocks: JAZZ, HEB
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Comments (55)
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  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I know you are Admiral. Still slithering around the net trying to find anybody that will listen to your sob stories you slimey knucklehead? I will fail? How many more years are you going to wait for that to happen? You're hair turning grey yet? I'll tell you what Admiral, because I feel pity for you after I turn this $2.5k into $100k you can PM me and I'll toss you a bone. Seriously, I'll toss you a bone. Try not to starve in the meantime.
    17 Aug 2010, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • BlueHawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Your primary point is that fibromyalgia is not real. The majority of physicians believe it is real. Some do not and clearly you are one of them. But it's probably safe to say most people on the arthritis committee believe it is real. The FDA has already approved two drugs for fibro, so it is not unreasonable to expect another drug being approved for fibromyalgia. Since the drug is potentially dangerous, they need to weigh whether or not this drug has any benefits over the existing drugs on the market.

     

    If they believe there is something unique or beneficial with this drug when compared to cymb and lyrica, then it may be approved.
    17 Aug 2010, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Almost all of the docs on the comittee are old(er) and were around before fibromyalgia manifested as a disease. I will assume half of them already have problems with fibro's legitimacy. It's my experience that approximately half of all doctors believe it is legit. The majority of the naysayers are older. My article's point was not whether fibro is legit or not. I'm treating it as if it were. The point of the article is that President Clinton schedule 1'd it for a reason and that there are far too many unknowns. Show me the data. Show me the documented pregnancy and safety data. I know 2 people that used Xyrem and quit because of severe weight gain and massive depression.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    So you expect JAZZ to go down to $2.50. Then you sell the $10 puts, and you keep the $7.50 per share profit, right?
    17 Aug 2010, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • WACG
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    I also think JAZZ is going to crash and burn however, the PUTS are WAY overpriced. The implied volatilities are something like 3-4 times the current historical volatilities. I simply cannot accept the idea that the stock price of JAZZ CAN move far enough to compensate for the extremely high premia. I would normally short this thing and buy some upside protection but, again, the premia on CALLS is unreasonable. However, good luck. I think there are better plays elsewhere.
    17 Aug 2010, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't find put premiums to be unfair. The addition of the $11 strike sept expiration puts and the major stock consolidation in the $10's implies a ~50% move in either direction contingent on the panel's response. That corresponds to a ~250% gain for put buyers at the premiums current price.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:43 PM Reply Like
  • WACG
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    The premia are unreasonable BECAUSE the implied volatility is unrealistically too large when compared to actual volatility. Of course, if one does not subscribe to option premium calculations like Black-Scholes (or others) then it is all "gut estimation". I find it strange that you would spend a great deal of effort to investigate JAZZ's FDA prospects but little or no effort on something like option pricing which is demonstrably more objective. Nonetheless, good luck.
    18 Aug 2010, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » No please read the article sir. I expect jazz to retrace to around the $5 level.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:05 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    Then how do you expect to make 250%?
    17 Aug 2010, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • Alexander Maxwell
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    I personally do not think that you can turn 2500 dollars into all that money, that being said I hope you do. That being said, do you believe that tomorrow 11.00 would be a good exit point, and do you believe that that price is achievable. Personally I was going to hold on through the advisory panel, but I have begun to realize how stupid that is and how much money I could lose. GLTA holding Jazz and GLTA who have chosen to short, we'll have to wait and see.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » It's achievable if the briefing documents do not raise any anomalous question which I do not think they will. I can promise you that JAZZ will close lower on Thursday than it will Wednesday though. You have to get out sometime tomorrow or very early Thursday. And of course most folks do not think it's achievable. If most folks thought it was achievable their would be little incentive to do it. Follow my progress though every so often though. Good luck.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • medihatter
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    if you think jazz will hit 5 on a no panel, you will be disappointed. i say $7 - $8. thus making puts a waste of $. better to write some $7 puts. I see 12-13 on yes panel and $15-$17 on FDA approval. I peg fair value with jzp-6 approval at $20. with 1-2 % mkt share (which is peanuts) , jzp-6 can bring in $125M in revenues and with jazz's strong earnings leverage thanks to its 93% gross margins, i see $1 eps from jzp-6 and with a 10 pe that is $10 of share value.

     

    you might be a dr. , but you dont much about finance. u do realize jazz has $160M in sales and $40M in cashflow in 2010, all this without jzp-6. so AT $5, that is a pe of 4-5x. jazz is not your typical bio with no sales and profits. it is a quasi bio.

     

    with regards to your fibro comments , you are a joke. there is a lot of scientific evidence (low growth hormone, no to little delta sleep, low substance P, reduced blood flow in brain, inflamatory markers in the facia, ect) that fibro is very real. of course there are many with the dx but will end up not having true fm. also, if you truly think 90% are women, you are naive. more men have it, they are just not diagnosed as we know men dont like seeing doctors and sadly there is still a stigma that men are weak if they have fibro.

     

    also, ghb is very unique as it is a strong enhancer of slow wave sleep (delta sleep) where the physical body is healed and that most with fibro lack as evidence on sleep studies due mainly to alpha wave intrusion. also, your safety concerns are exagerated. ghb is a natural molecule found in food and in the brain and was once actually sold in health food stores. it wasnt pulled from health food stores due to safety but due to it being sadly abused by some for non medical purposes. Im not saying there are not adverse events or side effects but your safety issues are exagerted.

     

    also, if there is no safety data during pregnancy, then why does the FDA have Xyrem listed as Cat B and Lyrica, Cymbalta and Savella (3 current drugs approved for FM ) as Cat C. Cat C is more toxic than Cat B. News today also of Cymbalta's increased risk of liver disease. xyrem has been used by thousands for 8 years and no such safety concerns. A study also shows diversion risk as very small at 0.02% which is evidence that Jazz has done a great job with its REMS. I don't think another 10,000 fibro patients on jzp-6 poses much of a problem. you keep saying how many fibro patients there are at 6M, and while true, only 1-2 % will likely be on jzp-6 so that is not as big an issue as you make it seem. could even stipulate need a sleep study showing alpha wave intrusion and or no slow wave sleep before get insurance approval to weed out those that dont have true fibro.

     

    you go on about jazz's data as laughable as only 14 weeks, yet lyrica was 8 weeks and cymbalta was 12 weeks and they were approved.

     

    i could continue on here until the cows come home , but i will save you the embarrassment not to mention i have already wasted enough of my time on you.

     

    but heh , good luck with your puts.
    17 Aug 2010, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You think a negative panel outcome will send the stock down 18% huh? This your first panel? These panels give 40%-80% price swings to their underlying stocks. Look at the cboe for JAZZ please. $5 area is the name of the game. Like I said in the article- you have 2 days to get out. Hope to god the briefing documents don't contain an anomaly so you can get out in the $10-$11 range. Good luck sir.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:27 PM Reply Like
  • howardbaek
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Telsa, do we know the actual panel schedule this Friday?
    Is it common to halt the trading in midst of FDA panel review?
    I was wondering if the panel is scheduled during the morning then the trading should resume in the afternoon.
    Can't quite remember what the case was after VVUS panel review.. i believe they've halted the trading all day.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » The panel convenes at 8am ET-5pm ET Friday. The stocks in these situations are usually halted all day long. Some have had shorter presentations and such so end up trading late in the day. I'm pretty sure as of now that Jazz will be halted all day though but will find out the presentation schedule on the briefing documents tomorrow.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:19 PM Reply Like
  • medihatter
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    i said 7-8 so and so from 10.3close, 7 would be 32%, and mid poin of range is 23%. not 17%

     

    17% is 8.54.

     

    again, jazz is not your avg bio, and why it will fall about half what normal bios do.

     

    it is all about what a stock is discounting and with jazz currently trading at 10 pe on existing business (non jzp-6), then there isnt a lot discounted into the stock in terms of jzp-6 and why at $10, risk reward favors the upside.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:38 PM Reply Like
  • medihatter
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    you had 18% , i said 17, but my point is my low range of 7 has it off 32% and a chance jazz hits 11 before vote like u said so then would be off 36% from 11.
    17 Aug 2010, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • J.P. Zaragoza
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    Hi Telsa, I follow your instablogs and comments which I find pretty interesting. I would like to make a comment on the fact that Xyrem is under study by the FDA for a possible association with convulsions. We'll see how all this ends, but in the meantime it's possible that the FDA requests further studies on this for its fibromyalgia application.

     

    One more thing, did you figure out whether JAZZ trading is going to be halted on friday? I've looked it up on the internet and found nothing.

     

    Cheers.
    18 Aug 2010, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Excellent. As predicted JAZZ has went up because of no anomalies in the briefing docs. Glad I waited to buy puts as stated above. I will author blog 2/13 2.5k to $100k in a few hours along with trade screenshots.

     

    And yes I have found out trading will be halted all day long. Cheers
    18 Aug 2010, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • tonythefreak
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
     
    "Tears, Bloodshed and Regret" You say??

     

    Really?? Well you are busted

     

    So you are a physician?
    A wealthy one by your own statements, also you are an analyst (from your description)

     

    THEN IDENTIFY YOURSELF YOU DIRT BAG---

     

    You are using an eTrade account ?? LOL

     

    Remember when you were short VVUS and were posting as " tydurban "

     

    messages.finance.yahoo...

     

    An ID that even now touts you/himself as a genius:

     

    search.messages.yahoo....

     

    I was wrong about you posing as a Marine- it is an Army Ranger you are trying to pass yourself off as with that ID -

     

    You dishonor those who have actually made the sacrifices to serve this country-

     

    All of the fresh new screen IDs commenting and complementing here and on other sites are quite a "nice touch" - It's happened before though...

     

    There may be concern about the number of "analysts" allowed to be pumping and/or bashing with no regard for proper identification or regulatory disclosures here on Seeking Alpha, here is is some info:

     

    www.sec.gov/answers/tm...
    denebleo.sec.gov/tcr/

     

    Anyone can report concerns about any business, financial professional or website (including content provided by entities allowed access thereof) using a quick form: 2-5 minutes is all it takes:

     

    denebleo.sec.gov/tcr/a...?

     

    or one can send a letter-

     

    SEC Complaint Center,
    100 F Street NE, Washington, D.C. 20549-0213.

     

    You can also send a fax to 703-813-6965.

     

    AIMO DYODD
    18 Aug 2010, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    You would think that on such an important trading day for JAZZ that you would be here (or somewhere) posting.

     

    So are you a nutritionist/MD/biotech investor? I ask because we all can see there's some problem with you properly identifying yourself, your position, and your credentials.

     

    We can't be sure you're putting your money where your mouth is. Of course, when you're talking $2,500 we can tell your mouth isn't that big (at least for holding money).

     

    19 Aug 2010, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    $2,500 is a lot of money for most people. If they don't have a job, they are lucky they can invest $100.
    19 Aug 2010, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Supplyside, have you read my recent blog? My trade screenshots have been posted along with the whole process. Upper right hand side of this screen fella. $2500 to $100,000 blog 2/13. Check it out.

     

    Modie, if one does not have $2500 to invest then they should not be investing in the first place.

     

    Guys, wake up and lets get sharp ok?
    19 Aug 2010, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    Telsa:
    Really? "...if one does not have $2500 to invest then they should not be investing in the first place. " Well, I converted $1,000 to $3,000 in 7 years. That's less than $2,500. So you are saying the one's who can afford $2,500 to invest (after taxes, housing, etc) are allowed to get rich and those who can't afford that much should just stay poor? The stock market is the best wealth building machine. I recommend investing a small amount, say $200, every month if you can't afford to put $2,500 in at the same time. Over time, the investment will grow.
    19 Aug 2010, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » You only invest money you can afford to lose Modie. If one does not have $2500 they probably cant afford to lose it. I am also very curious about which broker allowed you to open an account with only $1000 three years ago. I wasnt aware of any broker with that minimum three years ago. Response?

     

    seekingalpha.com/insta...
    20 Aug 2010, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    Three years ago? I started investing 9 years ago as my bio states. My broker, I wish not to tell. I can say I pay $4 per trade. And Sharebuilder or Zecco may let you open with $1000. Or you can pay a little as $1 buying stock directly from a company through Dividend Reinvestment Plans.

     

    And yes, only invest what you can loose.
    20 Aug 2010, 12:29 AM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    In your post you wrote:

     

    """You only invest money you can afford to lose"""

     

    I guess you really don't have an idea of what you're writing. If I have to explain the difference between investing and gambling - you aren't worth the time and it's obvious you aren't worth the time.

     

    I would say that you are the one needing to get 'sharp,' but I understand you'll have to take this a step at a time.

     

    I saw your post on the position you are disclosing. I didn't see the sell disclosure of the shares you indicated you were long.
    20 Aug 2010, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I hold absolutely no shares long. Screenshots of trade are up on blog 2/13. This road to $100,000 will involve only 8 total trades all of them naked equity options. No shares will be held long. No need to.
    20 Aug 2010, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph Krueger
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    It is OK to lose $2500....that kind of money may be alot to some and little to others but it is not the kind of money that is going to make or break anyone. Options are great leverage and if you hit it right about 6 times in a row with a highly leveraged position you can get your $100K.
    But the reality is that you also stand to lose most of your capital on your first investment. At worst, JAZZ will drop to $8 and with the premium on your option you will be lucky to break even. More likely you will lose half your money on these options, as JAZZ will remain in the $10 range with an unclear panel review. If it happens to be favorable, those options expire worthless and you have to turn $900 into $100K.
    I wish you luck but you are better off betting $2500 ride on the roulette wheel or blackjack table 5 times in a row to get your money.
    20 Aug 2010, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Telsa Rowe
    , contributor
    Comments (86) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » Hello Joseph, my put options have an $11 strike sept exp and were purchased for $155 a contract. I'm up almost 50% on my options already and the stock is above $10. If this drops to $8 I'll be up over 150%. Read $2500 to $100,000 blog 2/13. Screenshots of my trade are available. Good to have you here Joseph. Too, a buy and sell of each security or option is considered two trades.
    20 Aug 2010, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph Krueger
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    Listening to Adam F during the panel review...not looking too good for JAZZ. You may do quite well on this one after all.
    20 Aug 2010, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Leespatch
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I just tried to buy the sept, $10 puts. It did not go through.
    20 Aug 2010, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    Leespatch:
    JAZZ stock was halted Friday due to the panel and as Tesla said earlier. But it you want, you can buy the puts Monday morning. From my day-trading days, I found that a stock usually falls three days in a row before finding a base.

     

    After-hours trading says JAZZ well to $7.28. Telsa is betting that it falls to $5. He probably will be right.
    21 Aug 2010, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Joseph Krueger
    , contributor
    Comments (283) | Send Message
     
    $11 puts at $1.55 means $9.45 break even; right now premarket JAZZ is about $8 which gives you about $1.50 profit which is about a 100% return. Not bad at all- but you were calling for $5 (I called for $8), so your next trades will have to give you a much better return to reach your goal.
    23 Aug 2010, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • MMTA1
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    jerome kievel is in court as of august 2, 2010

     

    there is no way telsa is keivel... how can he focus on his on going court case and author this blog simultaneously?
    20 Aug 2010, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • zoompoison2
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    dont know but its for real man. How insane is this??????? The guy called jazz tooo close way too close. Panel voting, pps before panel, panel concerns. Something may be fishy and this is insane!
    20 Aug 2010, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Yes, it was very 'insane.' His (and all his other names) used the constant arguments Wolfe made. If there is a connection, that's where I would look. But, at this point it's just a gamble that paid off.

     

    BTW - Telsa Rowe you did indicate you were long 4k shares, but you never disclosed that on Seeking Alpha and you never did indicate when you sold them.
    21 Aug 2010, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    As soon as I found out that JPZ-6 could be used as a date-rape drug, I knew it wouldn't pass. So this may have not been so much of a gamble.
    21 Aug 2010, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Since were 'knew,' how much did you invest in the puts?
    22 Aug 2010, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Bryant
    , contributor
    Comments (6937) | Send Message
     
    Supply side:
    Unfortunately, my broker only supports buys and sells. I cannot trade short nor buy puts or calls.
    22 Aug 2010, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • WACG
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Supply side-
    Obviously you have a "Cash Account". Get rid of the Training Wheels. You simply need a margin account to actually trade in something other than mutual funds.
    23 Aug 2010, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    WACG

     

    I have to write this - you are so ignorant, you responded to the wrong person.
    23 Aug 2010, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • WACG
    , contributor
    Comments (377) | Send Message
     
    Supply side -

     

    I was not ignorant for responding to the wrong person I was STUPID for responding at all and thereby contributing to the useless noise and waste of bandwidth. Oooops! I did it again!
    24 Aug 2010, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Tungsten
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of what you have to say Telsa, people wont like what they hear and will shoot the messenger because someone tells it how it is. ARNA VVUS, OREX, even after advisories people are still kicking and screaming, refusing to learn or help themselves. They just want to go long and make 1000% profit off 100 shares. If your not on that page, in their minds its f$% you, and will hurl every insult that comes to mind to get you back for illuminating the poor choice of investment they have made with the company mixing up the chemistry set kool-aid pill. Then its calm down, listen to sounds of the rain forest or ocean cd, harness the inner chi, and go back to trading over the internet. Before you start commenting with fire in your eyes, ask yourself this, Is this me? ?
    4 Oct 2010, 01:52 PM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    So let's see tungsten - either you're with Telsa or you're trying to get 1000% on 100 shares. The 100 share guy is you.
    4 Oct 2010, 08:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tungsten
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Haha no, I'm not Tulsa. I do not trade stock at all. I trade options. I have no desire to make an argument with anyone, just thought I would help the guy out. I'm just tired of seeing your conspiracy theory types, (no offense, I'm not trying to insult you), all over the investor boards. I shouldn't have posted that because all it will do is upset people. My intention was to wake people up to see the forest through the trees. However, I just went about it wrong, being blunt was the wrong approach.
    5 Oct 2010, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    There's the issue. You need to read and comprehend. I wrote that you were 'with' Telsa (not being him).

     

    The conspiracy leader is Telsa. If you don't think he is posting with several names on several boards or that he lost on JAZZ and found bs reasons to start over, you need more than waking up.
    6 Oct 2010, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • Tungsten
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    I haven't been following any of it, just the one post. I didn't realize there was a conspiracy going on. I have no desire to read through it all either, I would rather spend my time and energy on other investment research to make a living. He probably just wants you to get all upset about it, and your falling into his trap. It was a mistake on his part to initiate such a challenge because regardless of how successful a trader you are you will lose on some trades, and under the microscope all the ones following will come out beneath rocks to point the finger to say "seeeeeeeeee". Thats just my opinion. Also I wanted to ask you, do you think the moon landings were faked? I just have a hunch that you do.
    6 Oct 2010, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Tungsten, You didn't read just one post. Your posts are evidence of that. Your comments reflect info from a number of posts. Your BS is pretty close to the Telsa Rowe BS - is that a coincidence? BTW, I suggest you not go with your hunches.
    11 Oct 2010, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Tungsten
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Haha, I came across this website and immediately thought of you. I bet you can get a ton of complaining done on this one. Hahaha, P.S the moon landings weren't faked.
    18 Oct 2010, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Supply side
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I see you don't unerstand the rules here - as I expected.
    19 Oct 2010, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tungsten
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    haha ok, nice talking with you
    12 Oct 2010, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • 70334
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Nil heard from Telsa Rowe since his "Deep Money" blog on 3 Oct in which he stated his first trade to buy FAZ calls (which are now almost worthless). Maybe he will start over again for the third time - or more likely he will not be heard from again. Well, it was interesting while it lasted.
    12 Oct 2010, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • J.P. Zaragoza
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    he is on Twitter now though he hasn't commented since Oct 4th
    12 Oct 2010, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • 70334
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    I realize that Rowe is on Twitter, and I have been monitoring it. The fact that he posts a trade, which is supposedly to launch his run from $1,000 to $100,000, and then doesn't post anything for 11 days (while his choice, FAZ, plummets) speaks volumes for his credibility, or lack thereof. He is apparently simply a wannabe, who clams up when a trade goes against him. Actually, kind of pathetic.
    13 Oct 2010, 12:30 AM Reply Like
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