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Gold Stock Trades Editor Jeb Handwerger is a highly sought-after stock analyst syndicated internationally and known throughout the financial industry for his accurate and timely analysis of the equities markets, particularly the metals and mining sector. Subscribe to his FREE Newsletter right... More
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  • Is Dollar Bounce Forecasting Gold Correction? 0 comments
    Nov 24, 2010 8:32 PM | about stocks: GLD, SLV, AGQ, UGL, DZZ, UUP, UDN, GDX, GDXJ, SIL

     In a recent article, I wrote about important trend changes in the dollar and gold.

    An important inverse inter-market relationship is continuing between the US dollar and gold. They have both broken trendlines simultaneously and are threatening a counter trend move. Other than yesterday’s spike on a conflict in Korea, the dollar and gold have moved inversely and one appears to be bottoming while gold threatens to make a topping pattern.

    Most traders use trendlines to determine when a trend changes, but many forget to follow that important line after the break has occurred. Smart traders have been monitoring the extended trendline on the dollar and gold this past week. It will be used to determine if this trend reversal is confirmed or if there is a chance of a technical failure. A failure occurs when price reverses back below the line. This creates an exhaustion point. It is crucial to monitor for these patterns. A failure did not occur in the dollar, as it has bounced higher on geopolitical fears in Korea, rising rates in China, and eurozone bailout concerns. This trend may continue higher, which may limit gold's upside targets.

    An extended line reverses its role of either support or resistance. In the case of the dollar, the downtrend line acted as resistance or a “ceiling” on the price. Last Tuesday, it was broken to the upside. After Tuesday, the US dollar has found support at the 50-day moving average and its new support, the extended trendline. It's important to know that traders have monitored this technical level closely and the extended trendline has proven to hold support. This signifies the dollar may have much further to run. This could also signify pressure on precious metals in relation to the US dollar as a trend has been broken and a break of October lows could confirm a potential head-and-shoulders top.

    Disclosure: Long Gold and Silver Mining Stocks

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