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Retired, active small investor. Former executive search, defense contracting, business development and M&A consulting, ecommerce and manufacturing experience.
  • Axion Power 2012 Q3 Conference Call Questions 30 comments
    Nov 7, 2012 6:25 PM | about stocks: AXPW

    We've all been here before so briefly enter your top questions for Axion's Q3 2012 conference call scheduled for 11:00AM Nov 15, 2012.

    While you might have 1/2 dozen questions I suggest you be realistic about how many questions Tom Granville will be willing to spend with any one caller and enter your top three questions and then any secondary questions you might have for others to consider. Ok, ladies and gentlemen, let's get to work!

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:AXPW.

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  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for setting up this board, Bang. Will post a few questions in a day or so.
    7 Nov 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Mayascribe
    , contributor
    Comments (9983) | Send Message
     
    Me too, bang.

     

    There are so many obvious questions to ask; FERC/Viridity, BMW, Asian automaker, GM, Ford, progress on the "dozens of bids/proposals since the last CC," another activated carbon shipment from Japan, STRATEGIC PARTNER STATUS, toll contract with East Penn, results from the Navy purchase, Norfolk progress, including the over-the-road, and switching to the 30HT, what happened to Envision Solar, plans to redesign the Axion website...and that's only about two minutes of conjuring.

     

    Thanks for throwing up this Insta.
    7 Nov 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • big_bear
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Revealing strategic partner would be plenty of information for me :)
    7 Nov 2012, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • amishelvis
    , contributor
    Comments (143) | Send Message
     
    Revealing a strategic partner ,,,I dont think they have one booked yet. It would be good to find out what types of avenues they are looking down.. Big customers, (NS, BMW, Veridity) and I'd say East Penn has got to be at the top of the list. ,,maybe Black Rock,, or someone of that nature. If the fish is big enough, it could do wonders for our share price.
    Maybe we can get some color on the expected time line. Wasnt that suppose to be by the end of the year?
    Thanks Bang for getting this going.
    8 Nov 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • axion-nl
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    We continue to evaluate the market for smaller Cubes for residential and community storage and larger Cubes for utilities, oil rigs and other
    larger applications such as solar and wind. We anticipate establishing additional formal marketing agreements for some of these applications in
    2012.

     

    I want an update on this promise
    8 Nov 2012, 03:52 AM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I want to know the status of manufacturing automated process. Can they do the carbon sheeting fully auto now?
    8 Nov 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Why aren't Axion's New Castle, grid-connected power cube and Washington Navy Yard Net Zero energy storage units included among energy storage projects reported at http://bit.ly/STQHiV
    8 Nov 2012, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Cool link, D-inv.
    And a good question.

     

    Similarly, I have seen more than a few research reports and articles where Axion is not mentioned and should have been.

     

    Could this be considered another facet of AXPWs marketing methodological myopia which leaves the website uninspiring while we depend on a select few to make backroom phone deals?

     

    We'll have to wait and see how that works.
    11 Nov 2012, 08:09 AM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    I would like a breakdown, in either dollars or units, of PbC batteries built and sold and the purpose. E.g. so many/much sold for evaluation or testing by grid operators, so many/much for auto testing, so many/much for ...?

     

    This should avoid problems with NDAs and allow more visibility for us investors.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Were any new NDAs signed in the past six months? Three months?

     

    Join HTL re-PbC battery sales at some level on a quarterly basis.

     

    Is the HUB an Axion Power International, Inc. product or a Rosewater product?
    8 Nov 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    D-Inv: IIRC, we know already that AXPW makes it for RW to market.

     

    Could be faulty memory though.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    That is consistent with my understanding up through the electronics convention when an Axion nameplate was visible, but since then I seen the HUB referred to as the Rosewater HUB. It was my understanding prior to those references that Rosewater had licensed exclusive rights from Axion to sell the HUB in U.S. and Canada.
    8 Nov 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: I think it's just a branding strategy.

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie
    , contributor
    Comments (1844) | Send Message
     
    I'm interested in timing

     

    1) When will fleet testing of PbC in autos begin and end? What happens next, assuming we pass with flying colours?

     

    2) When will testing of the NS999 begin and end? What happens next, assuming we pass with flying colours?

     

    D
    8 Nov 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    Axion appears to have focused to date on markets dominated by very large oligopolistic firms expect for the HUB licensed to Rosewater Energy. Is Axion actively pursuing any markets populated with small and mid-size firms?

     

    Why is it that shareholders and potential PbC customers can access more information about PbC batteries through Rosewater Energy's specification sheet on PowerCubes than from Axion directly?
    8 Nov 2012, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    D-inv: +1 on both questions!

     

    HardToLove
    8 Nov 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • bangwhiz
    , contributor
    Comments (2248) | Send Message
     
    Author’s reply » I don't think information about how many NDA's were signed is going to be answered and I doubt if you will ever get the kind of PbC production and delivery details sought above. I think anyone who inquires about a PbC has to sign a NDA if Axion is willing to talk to them. JP is pretty good at determining PbC sales by backing out flooded battery sales and I think that's the best data we are going to get.

     

    One of the biggest factors pushing the stock price to the floor is the absolute dearth of news about sales activity other than the NS sales and news about Asian OEM and DOE award. We are investing in an information vacuum and the price of .25 cents is the market value of an OTC stock when investors are making an almost blind bet.

     

    APH followers know a lot more of course to use in making a judgement in progress - but we can't buy all the stock. Even if we did the price would never go up. We'd only have the catfish sitting further down waiting for one of us to tire and toss them some chum.

     

    I'm getting close to offering all takers a $5 bet the Q3 conference call lays an egg and we hit a new low - but hope springs eternal when you are down nearly 80%. "You're now free to remove your seat belt and move about the cabin."
    11 Nov 2012, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • D-inv
    , contributor
    Comments (4203) | Send Message
     
    " I don't think information about how many NDA's were signed is going to be answered and I doubt if you will ever get the kind of PbC production and delivery details sought above."

     

    The question I posed was "Were any NEW NDAs signed in the past six months? Quarter?" Not how many have been signed. Refusal of Axion's management to answer that question will not be taken lightly by me as I see no rational explanation for a company that is promoting itself as a supplier of new technology unless that company IS reporting identifiable sales volumes of that technology.
    11 Nov 2012, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    "Information vacuum", true that - you'd think they were working on a Reversed CAES.

     

    bang, I agree with your frustration and strong sentiment. And I see nothing in the technicals that would indicate I shouldn't have waited for 0.15, as I said I would. I still think it could get there.

     

    So why did I just buy more at .26?

     

    First, after the last call I bought some at 0.4549 - I think it has never been higher since. I averaged those blocks down. Feel a bit better about it. I'll still pick up more at 0.15, though.

     

    Second? Even if TG does lay an egg, I think he's sitting on the one he laid in the spring. And I have a feeling it's hatching time.
    11 Nov 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    I hate myself. Saw some go off at 0.20 today. My brain is defective. I need a bail-out. Maybe I should have voted for Obama instead of Johnson. argh.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • RBrun357
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    I am in the belief that TG will be happy to report as much data as possible as long he does not violate any NDA's. With that said I also believe that if he appears to not be willing to provide that data it might be due to the fact that he really doesn't feel that he has enough good stuff to provide that would excite the market and therefore keeping things gray may keep us all guessing and bottom feeding instead of spitting out the chum and swimming away! I am a believer in the product and the company in the long term but not convinced that their revenues will ramp fast enough to save them from share dilution and basically certain death to my current holdings! The most important item to me would be for the announcement of the strategic investor to take that major concern away from this story and buy the time needed for the PBc revenues to become convincing!

     

    Just saying!
    11 Nov 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Lafferty
    , contributor
    Comments (253) | Send Message
     
    Question: the last we heard, Axion had not yet ramped up the on-site PowerCube to the rated 500kW (I believe it was still being operated at 100kW). Has it been ramped to 500kW yet? If not, why not, and when will this happen? Doesn't the ramp need to occur before sales to allow for full test-data? (sales of full Cubes, that is. Mini-cubes and the HUB are obviously different beasts.)

     

    Please note that a commitment will prevent me from listening to the call and asking this question myself. So if anyone is interested, please do ask this question in some form.

     

    There has been a lot of talk on the APCs lately of selling PowerCubes soon, given the fact that the new FERC rates are now in effect. But I don't see that happening soon unless they are already actually ramped to 500kW and can offer full test data to prospective buyers.
    11 Nov 2012, 11:59 PM Reply Like
  • H. T. Love
    , contributor
    Comments (18048) | Send Message
     
    Lafferty: Great question. Since we now know that some AXPW folks follow our stuff, maybe it will be addressed right in the prepared comments.

     

    If not, I think whomever gets in the queue early should ask this to make sure we don't get out of time before it's asked.

     

    MHO,
    HardToLove
    12 Nov 2012, 07:00 AM Reply Like
  • wtblanchard
    , contributor
    Comments (2434) | Send Message
     
    Related: what percentage of the time is the PowerCube still being used for NSC testing and how have priorities on its usage changed now that FERC pay for performance is implemented, and there's not only money to be made, but real world data to be collected and used in marketing.

     

    Recall that the recent Penn State-NSC grant mentioned New Castle, but until we get something back from the Freedom of Information Act request, we don't have much of a feeling of what exactly (grant related) is going on in New Castle.

     

    Might there be a second PowerCube of a different size dedicated to these efforts?

     

    It would seem to me that a "whole" PowerCube isn't really required for the NSC testing, but that's just a relatively uneducated guess. In particular I'm wondering about the cost of the inverter that's required for the 2 different scenarios. We've heard that the price of the inverter is significant and those are real dollars paid to an outside vendor.

     

    One also wonders (totally unfounded speculation warning!!!) if they're trying to swing more business Indy Power System's way, but if they're possibly waiting on UL certification in that area as well. Hope not, but you never know.
    12 Nov 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Edmund Metcalfe
    , contributor
    Comments (1509) | Send Message
     
    Great questions. Let's get some details.
    IIWIC (if I were in charge), I would put some app out there to let interested people see what the Cube is DOING. Including every single data point, like a ticker. Try It, pull it if you can't pull it off. But try something.
    12 Nov 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1634) | Send Message
     
    When does Management think they can get financing from their strategic partner? A timeline would be appreciated as the stock keeps tanking and tanking and tanking, which doesnt bode well for when negotiations start (if they haven't started that is...)

     

    Thanks

     

    Amine
    12 Nov 2012, 02:55 PM Reply Like
  • Amouna
    , contributor
    Comments (1634) | Send Message
     
    One other question: Does TG still expect Axion to become profitable as early as 2013? If so, how does he go about it? What is the strategy behind?

     

    Thanks
    12 Nov 2012, 03:05 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    I was intrigued by the SAE paper figure that described a "PbC#2" that through early test cycles appeared to have somewhat more robust behavior in the State of Health (SOH) figure (http://seekingalpha.co...)

     

    I would like to know what advances have been made or are anticipated with the PbC platform.
    13 Nov 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo
    , contributor
    Comments (352) | Send Message
     
    I see in the Oct 3 presentation that JP just posted (http://seekingalpha.co... slide 16 shows a continued divergence between PbC#1 and #2 at now 600 cycles (approx 5-10% SOH) and an increasing, dramatic divergence with the AGM (100 vs. 30% SOH) at 724 cycles)
    14 Nov 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • bazooooka
    , contributor
    Comments (2893) | Send Message
     
    Do you think we could ask about the recent carbon order? Maybe TG can provide some color if this is related to some near term PbC sales.
    14 Nov 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
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