Erik McCurdy's  Instablog

Erik McCurdy
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Erik is the senior market technician for Prometheus Market Insight and has been performing chart analysis since 1995. The software program that he developed to monitor long-term stock market trends has correctly identified 92% of the cyclical turning points in the S&P 500 index since 1940. His... More
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  • Stocks Enter Important Short-Term Cycle 0 comments
    Oct 3, 2012 8:14 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ

    The S&P 500 index closed moderately higher today, continuing a test of support at the lower boundary of the power uptrend from July below recent highs of the cyclical bull market from 2009. Technical indicators are slightly bullish overall, tentatively favoring a continuation of the advance.



    (click to enlarge)

    With respect to cycle analysis, we have been monitoring the likely development of the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) since last week. The move higher today finally generated a cycle low signal, confirming that the STCL occurred on September 26.



    (click to enlarge)

    It is possible that stocks could rise further during the highly speculative advance from June. However, market risk has increased to a historic extreme, so equally extreme caution is warranted. Recent gains have been fueled by an unprecedented amount of monetary stimuli, so it is highly unlikely that they will be sustained and the next cyclical downtrend will almost certainly erase a substantial portion of the bull market advance from 2009.



    (click to enlarge)

    At a current duration of 43 months, the bull market from 2009 is overdue for termination and the next cyclical top could form at any time. Therefore, it will be important to monitor market behavior closely for signs of a long-term reversal during the next several weeks. We will identify the key developments as they occur in our daily market forecasts and signal notifications available to subscribers.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ
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