Seeking Alpha

Erik McCurdy's  Instablog

Erik McCurdy
Send Message
Erik is the senior market technician for Prometheus Market Insight and has been performing chart analysis since 1995. The software program that he developed to monitor long-term stock market trends has correctly identified 92% of the cyclical turning points in the S&P 500 index since 1940.... More
My company:
Prometheus Market Insight
My blog:
Prometheus Market Insight
  • Daily Charts for March 14, 2011 0 comments
    Mar 14, 2011 7:44 PM | about stocks: SPY, DIA, QQQ, UPV, YINN, IEF, TLH, UUP, ULE, YCL, UGL, GLD, SGOL, GDX, UCO, GCC
    S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

    The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the latest big picture update.

    Technical Analysis

    The S&P 500 index rebounded from large early losses to close moderately lower today, holding near recent lows of the downtrend from February and continuing a test of congestion support and the 50-day moving average in the 1,300 area. Technical indicators remain moderately bearish overall, supporting a continuation of the decline.

    Cycle Analysis

    We are 30 trading days into the cycle following the Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) on January 28. Today's decline reconfirms the bearish scenario that we outlined at the beginning of the month. A close below the previous STCL near 1,276 during the next 2 weeks would signal a transition from right to left translation and forecast additional short-term weakness. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through March 31, with our best estimate being somewhere in the March 21 to March 25 range.

    • Last STCL: January 28, 2011
    • Cycle Duration: 30 trading days
    • Cycle Translation: Right (bullish)
    • Next STCL Window: Now through March 31; best estimate in the March 21 to March 25 range.
    • Setup Status: No active setups.
    • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
    • Signal Status: No active signals.
    • Stop Level: None active.

    Short-term Outlook

    • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above short-term downtrend resistance at 1,320 would predict a return to the recent long-term high near 1,344.
    • Bearish Scenario: A close below the recent short-term low near 1,292 would confirm the break below congestion support in the 1,300 area and forecast additional losses.

    The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

    10-year Treasury Note Yield Daily Chart Analyses

    The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the 10-year Treasury note yield. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the latest big picture update.

    Technical Analysis

    Yields closed moderately lower today, moving down to a new low for the downtrend from early February and beginning a test of congestion support in the 3.32% area. Technical indicators are now moderately bearish overall, supporting a continuation of the decline.

    Cycle Analysis

    We are 7 trading days into the cycle following the Short-Term Cycle High (STCH) on March 4. Today's decline reconfirms that the current cycle is left translated and forecasts additional losses. The window during which the next STCH is likely to occur is from March 24 to April 14, with our best estimate being somewhere in the March 30 to April 5 range.

    • Last STCH: March 4, 2011
    • Cycle Duration: 7 trading days
    • Cycle Translation: Left (bearish)
    • Next STCH Window: March 24 to April 14; best estimate in the March 30 to April 5 range.
    • Setup Status: No active setups.
    • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
    • Signal Status: No active signals.
    • Stop Level: None active.

    Short-term Outlook

    • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above downtrend resistance at 3.52% would predict a move up toward the previous high near 3.74%.
    • Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support in the 3.32% area would reconfirm the downtrend from February and forecast additional losses.

    The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

    US Dollar Index Daily Chart Analyses

    The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the US dollar index. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the latest big picture update.

    Technical Analysis

    The index closed sharply lower again today, moving down to recent lows of the downtrend from early January. Technical indicators are moderately bearish overall, supporting a continuation of the decline.

    Cycle Analysis

    We are 5 trading days into the cycle following the Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) on March 7. Today's decline indicates that the Alpha High (NYSE:AH) occurred on March 10. A subsequent close below the latest STCL during the next few sessions would reconfirm left translation and forecast additional losses. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from March 31 to April 14, with our best estimate being somewhere in the April 5 to April 11 range.

    • Last STCL: March 7, 2011
    • Cycle Duration: 5 trading days
    • Cycle Translation: Left (bearish)
    • Next STCL Window: March 31 to April 14; best estimate in the April 5 to April 11 range.
    • Setup Status: No active setups.
    • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
    • Signal Status: No active signals.
    • Stop Level: None active.

    Short-term Outlook

    • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close above the recent short-term high near 77.30 would confirm the break above downtrend resistance and predict a move up toward congestion resistance at the 78 level.
    • Bearish Scenario: A close well below current levels would reconfirm the downtrend from early January and forecast additional losses.

    The bearish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

    Gold Daily Chart Analyses

    The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the gold market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the latest big picture update.

    Technical Analysis

    Gold closed moderately higher today, moving up toward recent all-time highs of the secular bull market. Technical indicators remain neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that near-term direction is in question with a slight upside bias.

    Cycle Analysis

    There are now two viable scenarios with respect to short-term cycle counts. According to the first scenario, we are 19 trading days into the cycle following the Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) on February 14. The next STCL is imminent and may have occurred on March 10, although we would need to see additional strength during the next few sessions to confirm that development.

    • Scenario 1
    • Last STCL: February 14, 2011
    • Cycle Duration: 19 trading days
    • Cycle Translation: Right (bullish)
    • Next STCL Window: Now through March 15.
    • Setup Status: No active setups.
    • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
    • Signal Status: No active signals.
    • Stop Level: None active.

    The second possibility is that the latest Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) occurred on March 3, the Alpha High (AH) formed on March 7 and the Beta Low (BL) formed on March 10. If prices continue to move sideways during the next week, this scenario would be favored and near-term direction would be in question.

    • Scenario 2
    • Last STCL: March 3, 2011
    • Cycle Duration: 7 trading days
    • Cycle Translation: Right (bullish)
    • Next STCL Window: March 21 to March 31; best estimate in the March 22 to March 28 range.
    • Setup Status: No active setups.
    • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
    • Signal Status: No active signals.
    • Stop Level: None active.

    Short-term Outlook

    • Bullish Scenario: A close well above the recent high near $1,434 would confirm the long-term breakout and forecast substantial gains.
    • Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support in the $1,400 area would predict a move down to congestion support in the $1,380 area.

    The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

    Gold Currency Index Daily Chart Analysis

    The Gold Currency Index (NYSE:GCI) is a composite of gold prices in the currencies of 10 of the largest economies in the world as defined by GDP. It is therefore currency independent, reflecting the intrinsic value of gold as an international currency itself.

    Technical Analysis

    The GCI closed slightly higher again today, holding below recent highs of the uptrend from late January near all-time highs of the secular bull market. Technical indicators remain neutral to slightly bullish overall, suggesting that near-term direction is in question with a slight upside bias.

    Short-term Outlook

    • Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent high at 34.90 would reconfirm the uptrend from late January and predict a move up to the all-time high near 35.30.
    • Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support near 34 would predict a move down toward congestion support in the 33 area.

    The bullish scenario is slightly more likely (~60% probable).

    Oil Daily Chart Analyses

    The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the oil market. For intermediate-term outlooks see the latest weekly review, and for long-term outlooks see the latest big picture update.

    Technical Analysis

    Oil closed slightly higher today, holding below recent highs of the long-term uptrend. Technical indicators remain effectively neutral overall, suggesting that near-term direction is in question.

    Cycle Analysis

    We are 18 trading days into the cycle following the Short-Term Cycle Low (STCL) on February 15. Today's rebound signals that the latest STCL may have occurred today, although we would need to see additional strength during the next few sessions to confirm that development. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through March 21, with our best estimate being sometime between now and March 16.

    • Last STCL: February 15, 2011
    • Cycle Duration: 18 trading days
    • Cycle Translation: Right (bullish)
    • Next STCL Window: Now through March 21; best estimate now through March 16.
    • Setup Status: No active setups.
    • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
    • Signal Status: No active signals.
    • Stop Level: None active.

    Short-term Outlook

    • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent high near $106 would reconfirm the long-term uptrend and forecast additional gains.
    • Bearish Scenario: A close below congestion support at $100 would predict a return to congestion support in the $96.50 area.

    Both scenarios are equally likely at the moment.

Back To Erik McCurdy's Instablog HomePage »

Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.

Comments (0)
Track new comments
Be the first to comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.