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Erik McCurdy
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Erik is the senior market technician for Prometheus Market Insight and has been performing chart analysis since 1995. The software program that he developed to monitor long-term stock market trends has correctly identified 92% of the cyclical turning points in the S&P 500 index since 1940.... More
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Prometheus Market Insight
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Prometheus Market Insight
  • ECRI Leading Indicator Turns Lower In April 0 comments
    Apr 21, 2012 3:47 PM

    The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) reported that its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) declined to 123.9 last week from 125.9 during the previous week. The annualized growth rate retreated slightly to 1.2 percent from its recent high at 1.7 percent.

     

     

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    Although the move lower in the WLI aligns with recent deterioration in economic data reports, it is too early to conclude with any useful degree of statistical certainty that an economic inflection point is developing. Additionally, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) of the Conference Board increased slightly in March and we will need to see if it follows the WLI lower in April.

     

     

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    We have been expecting the slight deterioration in coincident data that has occurred during the past several weeks and the next sign that a cyclical top is developing in the stock market would be acceleration in the deterioration during May and June. Therefore, it will be important to monitor the trend in economic data during the next several weeks, along with the resultant market reactions.

    Try our highly reliable market forecasting service for free.

    Themes: Economy
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