phillyslick's  Instablog

There seems to be a lot of optimism surrounding the start of Q2 earnings season, which has probably contributed to the 5% gain seen in markets last week. I think that Q2 earnings probably will be impressive, but does that alone justify jumping into the markets right now?  If earnings meet or even exceed expectations will the rally be enough to ensure we have passed the 2010 market lows?

I think before we all jump in ahead of earnings season we should at least pause to consider a few things:

The majority of economic reports released in the past month or so have been negative and often missed analyst expectations. Of course, these reports don't reflect the ability of corporations to make record profits, but it does paint a dreary picture of the economic climate during Q2. 

Because macroeconomics have played such an important role in the markets in the past few months, even impressive Q2 results can be crushed by a downgrade of other PIIGS (maybe Italy), or bad news from China such as a slowing housing market, or lower than expected GDP. I can't help but feel that we are at the mercy of the media at the moment - ie., maybe Samsung will report record-breaking profits, but if the media turns their focus from Q2 earnings to debt, housing, growth, etc, you can be sure Samsung's earning won't be reflected in it's share price for long.

I'm more of the buy-and-hold dividend investing type, so you wont see me trying to ride any rally these weeks ahead. If you are venturing in, I wish you all the best and would recommend you get out fast before the next 'crisis' takes hold of the media.





Disclosure: Long NASDAQ OMX hedged with puts