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I started to invest in 2007 and since then I've seen the housing crash the Euro crisis and now the great QE debate. From what I've seen, a buy and hold strategy can work - if you can time the market! But, from my experience, market timing is impossible. I rather focus on companies with strong... More
  • t-testing the Case-Shiller 0 comments
    Jul 27, 2010 9:45 AM

    The Case-Shiller index rose 1.2% in May compared with April. I asked myself today - Is the 1.2% rise due to chance, or are house prices actually rising?

    I downloaded the Case-Shiller excel file and ran paired t-tests comparing the results of 20 cities from February, March, April, and May of 2010.
    Here's the results (mean value):

    February (133.2) v. March (133.1); p > 0.05
    March (133.1) v. April (134.0); p < 0.001
    April (134.0) v. May (134.5); p = 0.011

    In conclusion, the Case-Shiller index has been rising since March and it is very unlikely that this is due to chance... Average house prices in these 20 cities are significantly rising. 

    Disclosure: No positions in US housing

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