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USD Index: Rally Is Looking Corrective, Bearish Waves Could Resume Soon

The markets are still very slow and choppy in tight ranges, so our view remains unchanged. We think that FX pairs are forming just a corrective price action within larger trend against the USD.

On the USD index hourly chart below we see a three wave rally from 80.13 within two parallel trend lines which we think its a contra-trend move; a-b-c. Notice that in wave c we also have a wedge pattern which looks like an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are reversal pattern, so if we are correct then USD Index should turn bearish. Decline is expected to accelerate after a break of lower support line and 80.48 swing low.

USD Index 1h

Based on USD Index bearish outlook the majors are expected to rally, particularly EUR, GBP, and CHF.

On GBPUSD we see a potential low in place of a three wave decline from 1.6160 to 1.5952 where pair may have completed a wave c leg of a contra-trend movement. Based on the latest price action immediate rise to 1.6044 and ideally 1.6086 is expected while 1.5952 holds. 1.5950 level should represent a stop loss to any intra-day long set-ups.

GBPUSD 30min

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