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Who Will Win the 2012 BCS Championship? # 1 LSU vs. # 2 Alabama

Carlton Chin, CFA and Jay Granat, PhD, are authors of the book, "Who Will Win the Big Game?"  where concepts of sports psychology are quantified.  Here, we use this research to take a look at the 2012 BCS Championship Game between #1 LSU and #2 Alabama.  Our analysis on other sporting events has been featured in the NY Times and The Wall Street Journal.   

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Hard Work & Defense
Interestingly, across a variety of sports, factors and statistics related to hard work and consistency are more closely related to winning championships than glitzy statistics such as quarterback rating and homeruns. In particular, our work shows that defense does indeed win championships.
Alabama gets the nod in this category, with its top-ranked defense in terms of both points against and yards per game.  It is notable that LSU is #2 -- but a distant #2, yielding 252 yards per game vs. Alabama's 191 yards/game.  

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Big Game Experience & Coaching
 
Statistics show that experience and coaching can yield a measurable difference in the outcome of championships.  Alabama has appeared in a National Title game over the past three years (LSU's most recent appearance was for the 2007 regular season).  Both coaches have done well in games with national title implications, with Alabama's Nick Saban going 2-0 in these games, and LSU's Les Miles going 1-0.  We'll give the edge to Alabama in this category.

Sports Psychology Factors and the BCS Championship
So who will win this year's college football championship? 
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Please read more here:
http://whowillwinthebiggame.blogspot.com/2012/01/who-will-win-2012-bcs-championship.html 

Jay Granat is a psychotherapist and founder of StayIntheZone.com.  Carlton Chin is an MIT-trained quantitative and alternative assets portfolio manager for CARAT/Adamah Capital.   

Some articles by Carlton Chin on alternative investment strategies:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/315072-commodities-gold-at-a-crossroads 
http://seekingalpha.com/article/312307-managed-futures-and-commodities-overview-and-outlook-for-2012