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Carlton Chin, CFA
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Carlton Chin, CFA, is Managing Director, Portfolio Strategy & Research at Price Asset Mgmt (PAM) and portfolio manager and head of research for ADAMAH Capital, which specializes in Computer Aided Research & Advanced Technology (CARAT). He is a specialist in quantitative investment... More
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Baseball + Numbers = Fun & Games
• ##### 2014 Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities By Quarter 0 comments
Jan 28, 2014 10:01 AM

Are you in one of those popular Super Bowl Square Pools? Pool participants are randomly assigned numbers randomly, like Denver 3, Seattle 7. If your numbers match the last digits of the actual score at the end of any quarter, you win a prize. For instance, if you had this square of Denver 3 and Seattle 3, and the final score is 33-17 for Denver, you would win the big prize.

Here are the probabilities of your numbers winning, for the final score. In the link below, we also compute the probabilities for the square pool winner for each quarter.

If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you will be randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as the Seattle Seahawks (or NFC) 3, and the Denver Broncos (or AFC) 4. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are "good." Here, we compute square pool probabilities, or odds, based on historical results by quarter.
Most people know that numbers like 7, 3, and 0 are good, due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how good are these numbers? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? Several years ago, I computed the probabilities of the digits winning for each quarter - based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were published by the New York Times, in their Super Bowl Sunday spread print edition.
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