Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary

*** Status: Market Bullish – Sector Funds ***

Wow what a whipsaw from Thanksgiving week with the SP-500 up 7.39% for this past week. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is now at +76 indicating Market Up which is up from -77 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are still Bearish, with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator bearish and the MACD composite bearish. The SP-500 index is down ~10% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI(53) indicators for all the indices on the right of this page are now all positive with only the IEF bond fund negative. This indicates a general shift to stocks and stock funds versus bonds.

The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 Index is in transition, with the Fast and Slow Moving Averages crossing over themselves to the upside. The average slope of the Fast Moving Averages is back above zero, and my main indicator, the average slope of the Slow Moving Averages, is also positive. The ADX components are bullish, and the Stoch is up.

We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.

Rankings:

This week's Rankings now show Bond and Short Funds at the top indicating a Bearish market. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.

What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish/Neutral

AAII Sentiment: 33% Bullish / 28% Neutral / 39% Bearish

Investors Intelligence: 44% Bullish / 31% Bearish

Barchart: 48% Buy (last week 56% Sell)

Bulkowski: Bullish (CPI= 95% - last week 0%)

Buy-Don't Hold: Buy (3 - Nas Comp MACD cossover)

Consensus Traders: 28% Bullish / 23% Neutral / 49% Bearish (SPY)

MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up

MyPlanIQ Trend Score: +2.12% (SPY -6.0% last week)

10 DMA New High - New Low Ratio: Bearish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)

Pattern Trapper: Neutral (SPY)

Stock TA (SPY): Neutral

Stock Trends: Weak Bearish

TimelySetup: Neutral

TradeWithPete:

Wishing Wealth: Up Trend (GMI-2 = 5/6)

TheWizard: Less Bullish (SP-500 Long Term Signal)

dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart for December 4, 2011

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for December 4, 2011